三菱金融預(yù)測全球需求2023年三季度前不太可能反彈

據(jù)TABNI網(wǎng)站2020年8月2日迪拜報道，一份報告稱，全球石油需求要到2023年第三季度才能恢復(fù)到新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，而每天250萬桶的預(yù)測被視為需求破壞的永久性水平。

日本銀行控股和金融服務(wù)公司三菱日聯(lián)金融集團（MUFG）日前在其最新一期的石油市場每周報告中表示，盡管在夏季需求有一個假定的回升勢頭，但由于特別是航空需求恢復(fù)損失的速度很慢，我們?nèi)灶A(yù)測全球液體需求只會在今年年底前擴大到日均9700萬桶。

MUFG說：“因此，如果不考慮新冠病毒疫情反復(fù)發(fā)作的風(fēng)險，我們預(yù)測今年全球石油年需求量將減少800萬桶/天，減少到9200萬桶/天。我們認為，全球石油需求僅僅將在明年第三季度打破新冠病毒疫情爆發(fā)前每天1億桶的運行率，明年全球石油平均日需求為9860萬桶。

MUFG說：“這比我們之前的估計低了250萬桶/天，考慮到Covid-19的影響將是長期的，我們把這個數(shù)字作為需求破壞的永久水平。由于世界逐步走出封鎖，經(jīng)濟增長放緩和Covid-19行動限制的持續(xù)影響，這些因素仍將拖累全球石油需求的復(fù)蘇，特別是航空燃油。”

MUFG補充說：“因此，我們繼續(xù)預(yù)測，這種破壞將持續(xù)到2021年，而我們的預(yù)期與國際能源署在日前其最新的月度評估報告中作出的預(yù)期類似，預(yù)計全球石油需求將只在2022年前回到疫情爆發(fā)之前的水平。中期而言，我們預(yù)計消費者、企業(yè)和工業(yè)行為將出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變，這將大大抵消樂觀的人口統(tǒng)計趨勢和新興市場擴張的影響，從而放緩石油需求增長?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 TABNI.com

原文如下：

Oil demand ‘unlikely to rebound until Q3 2023’

Global oil demand will not return back to pre-virus levels until the third quarter (Q3) of 2023, and a forecast of 2.5 million barrels per day (m b/d) quantum is seen as a permanent level of demand destruction, a report said.

Despite an assumed pick-up in momentum over the summer, we forecast that global liquids demand will only expand to an average 97m b/d by year-end, as aviation demand in particular is slow to convalesce losses, said Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese bank holding and financial services company, in its latest Oil Market Weekly report.

“As a result – absent the risk of iterative virus waves – we model 2020 annualised global oil demand ~8mb/d lower at 92m b/d. We believe global oil demand will breach the pre-virus run-rate of 100m b/d only in Q3 2021, averaging 98.6m b/d in 2021,” the report said.

“This is 2.5m b/d lower than our previous assessment, and we adopt this quantum as the permanent level of demand destruction, given we view the fall-out from Covid-19 will be long-lasting. As the world emerges from lockdowns, a combination of weaker economic growth and lingering impacts of Covid-19 mobility restrictions will still be a drag on the recovery in oil demand, especially jet fuel.

“Thus, we continue to forecast the damage persisting well into 2021, and our expectations were similarly echoed by the IEA in its latest monthly assessment this week, projecting that global oil demand will return to pre-Covid-19 levels only by 2022. In the medium-term, we expect structural shifts to consumer, corporate and industrial behaviour, to more than offset promising demographic trends and EM expansion, to slow oil demand growth,” it added.