美國天然氣價(jià)格下跌趨勢或?qū)⒑芸炫まD(zhuǎn)

據(jù)6月29日Oil Monster消息：由于經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性和工業(yè)需求疲軟，上周，非貴金屬價(jià)格維持橫盤，而貴金屬價(jià)格上漲。能源綜合股價(jià)為負(fù)，原油價(jià)格下跌1.6%，天然氣價(jià)格下跌逾7.5%。由于對(duì)美國石油供應(yīng)的預(yù)期以及原油庫存達(dá)到歷史新高，本周原油價(jià)格下跌。

2020年年初天然氣價(jià)格相對(duì)較低，今年夏天到目前為止，由于天然氣儲(chǔ)存水平較高，工業(yè)部門天然氣消費(fèi)量下降，以及LNG出口減少，天然氣價(jià)格持續(xù)走低。

高于平均水平的庫存增加了供應(yīng)，庫存比五年平均水平高出21%，比去年高出50%。根據(jù)EIA的短期能源展望，到2020年10月底，天然氣儲(chǔ)量將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的4.1萬億立方英尺。

液化天然氣出口的下降也造成了天然氣價(jià)格的下行壓力。今年6月，向液化天然氣終端輸送的天然氣平均為每天40億立方英尺。

但價(jià)格下跌現(xiàn)在正引發(fā)產(chǎn)量下降，與此同時(shí)，由于相對(duì)于煤炭等其他燃料的競爭成本優(yōu)勢，發(fā)電廠的天然氣消耗量開始呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢。EIA STEO還預(yù)測，干物質(zhì)產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步下降，到2021年5月達(dá)到每天842億立方英尺的低點(diǎn)。

盡管目前，消費(fèi)減少、出口疲軟以及庫存增加，正壓制天然氣價(jià)格。由于產(chǎn)量持續(xù)下降和出口回升，預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)將出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁的底部。2020年第三季度，我們預(yù)計(jì)價(jià)格將從目前的1.5美元/百萬英熱上漲至2.0美元/百萬英熱。MCX天然氣將在未來幾天獲得100-105盧比左右的強(qiáng)勁支撐。目前，MCX天然氣價(jià)格為117盧比/百萬英熱。

馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

Declining Trend in Natural Gas Prices Will Reverse Shortly

Precious metal gained last week on renewed fears about rise in COVID-19 cases, gold prices increased by 1.8 percent and silver prices climbed by near a percent last week.

Base metals prices remained sideways on rising economic uncertainty and weaker industrial demand.

Copper and Aluminium closed with gains while other metals traded flat to negative last week. Copper prices rallied merely on concerns of tighter supply as the rise in COVID-19 cases among mine workers led to shutdown in production.

Energy complex traded negative with Crude oil prices down 1.6 percent and Natural gas prices down by more than 7.5 percent. Crude oil prices turned lower this week on expectation of United States oil supply and rise in crude oil stockpiles towards record high.

Natural gas prices have started the year 2020 relatively low and so far this summer, the prices has continued to trend lower because of high natural gas storage levels and declines in natural gas consumption in the industrial sector and lower exports of LNG.

The above average inventories have added to the supply, with stocks being 21 percent higher than the five-year average and 50 percent higher than last year's levels. As per EIA's short-term energy outlook, natural gas storage will reach near record 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2020.

The decline in LNG exports also contributed to the downward pressure on natural gas prices. Natural gas deliveries to LNG terminals have averaged 4.0 Bcf per day in June.

But lower prices are now triggering decline in production and at the same time due to competitive cost advantage over other fuels like coal, gas consumption by power plants have started showing rising tendencies. EIA STEO also forecasted that the dry production to continue to decline steadily, reaching a low of 84.2 Bcf per day in May 2021.

So, while at present, lower consumption and weak exports with higher inventories are depressing the natural gas prices. We expect to see a strong bottom shortly on account of continued decline in production and pick up in exports in the third quarter of 2020. We expect prices to firm up to $2.0 per MMBtu from the current prices of $1.5 per MMBtu. We expect MCX Natural gas to get strong support around Rs 100-105 levels in the coming days. Currently, MCX Natural gas prices are trading at Rs 117 per MMBtu.