需求回升 油價(jià)上漲

據(jù)CNBC網(wǎng)站5月14日消息：油價(jià)上周五上漲，創(chuàng)下連續(xù)第三周的漲幅。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在封鎖逐步放松后，原油需求有所回升，人們對(duì)全球供應(yīng)過(guò)?？赡荛_(kāi)始消退的期望大大提高。

布倫特原油上漲1.14美元，至32.27美元/桶，漲幅為3.66%，而西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油上漲5.9%，至29.52美元/桶，前一交易日上漲9%。

在石油輸出國(guó)組織(歐佩克)和其他主要生產(chǎn)國(guó)減產(chǎn)之際，需求方面也出現(xiàn)了亮點(diǎn)。上周五發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，隨著煉油廠加大運(yùn)營(yíng)力度，原油日產(chǎn)量出現(xiàn)反彈。

荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)研究分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示:“市場(chǎng)環(huán)境正在明顯改善?！薄暗覀?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，鑒于目前市場(chǎng)仍處于盈余狀態(tài)，短期內(nèi)上行空間有限。因此市場(chǎng)有大量庫(kù)存可供消化。”

國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)稱，預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年原油庫(kù)存每天將減少約550萬(wàn)桶。與此同時(shí)，國(guó)際能源署周三表示，美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存15周來(lái)首次下降。

減產(chǎn)將推動(dòng)庫(kù)存下降的趨勢(shì)，但美國(guó)原油不太可能出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁上漲。

澳新銀行高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師愛(ài)德華莫亞表示，" WTI原油將很難突破30美元/桶的水準(zhǔn)，直到美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景改善，部分下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解。"

在生產(chǎn)方面，歐佩克及相關(guān)生產(chǎn)商（統(tǒng)稱為歐佩克+）已同意減產(chǎn)近1,000萬(wàn)桶/天，本周沙特阿拉伯延長(zhǎng)了6月減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，承諾將減產(chǎn)近500萬(wàn)桶/天。

據(jù)知情人士消息，全球最大的石油出口國(guó)沙特阿美公司6月份將向至少三個(gè)亞洲買(mǎi)家減少原油供應(yīng)，減少量高達(dá)30%。

歐佩克+希望在5月和6月會(huì)議后繼續(xù)全面減產(chǎn)。

馮娟 摘譯自 CNBC

原文如下：

Oil jumps 6%, posts third week of gains amid signs of demand pickup

Oil prices rose on Friday, posting their third week of gains, as data showed demand for crude picking up in China after the easing of curbs to stem the coronavirus outbreak, boosting hopes that the global supply overhang may start to fade.

Brent crude was up $1.14, or 3.66%, to trade at $32.27 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled up 5.9% to trade at $29.52 per barrel, having jumped 9% in the previous session.

Amid supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers, bright spots are also emerging on the demand side. Data released on Friday showed China’s daily crude oil use rebounded in April as refineries ramped up operations.

Still the market mood remains far from euphoric, with the coronavirus pandemic far from over and new clusters emerging in some countries where lockdowns have been eased.

“The fundamentals in the market are clearly improving,” ING Research analysts said in a note. “But we still believe that in the near term, the upside is limited given that we are still in a surplus environment ... There is plenty of inventory for the market to digest.”

There is optimism that stockpiles may be on the wane.

The International Energy Agency said it expects crude inventories to fall by about 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of this year.

Meanwhile U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in 15 weeks, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Output cuts will boost the trend towards lower inventories, but U.S. crude is unlikely to see strong gains.

“WTI crude will struggle to break above the $30 level until both the economic outlook improves for the U.S. and some of the downside risks ease,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

On the production side, OPEC and associated producers — collectively known as OPEC+ — had already agreed to cut output by a record of nearly 10 million bpd before Saudi Arabia this week extended its planned reductions for June, pledging to lower supply by nearly 5 million bpd.

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, reduced the volume of crude it will supply to at least three buyers in Asia by as much as 30% for June, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

OPEC+ now wants to extend overall production cuts beyond May and June when the group next meets, sources told Reuters earlier this week.