油價(jià)繼續(xù)保持上漲勢(shì)頭

據(jù)5月8日Energy Voice報(bào)道，石油價(jià)格自2月份以來首次連續(xù)兩周上漲，主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)減產(chǎn)和需求初現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，原油市場(chǎng)開始重新恢復(fù)平衡。

上周五，紐約原油期貨價(jià)格逼近每桶25美元，本周以來累計(jì)上漲了約24%。全球最大的石油出口國(guó)沙特上調(diào)了6月份幾乎所有品級(jí)的油價(jià)，這表明該國(guó)更有興趣支持油價(jià)回升，而不是贏得市場(chǎng)份額。

還有更多的證據(jù)表明，美國(guó)的汽油需求開始回升。上周，美國(guó)汽油供應(yīng)（一種消費(fèi)指標(biāo)）增長(zhǎng)幅度為近兩年來的最高水平，而Genscape公司報(bào)告稱，俄克拉荷馬州庫(kù)欣的庫(kù)存自上周五以來一直在下降，如果政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，這將是2月下旬以來的首次庫(kù)存下跌。

盡管仍有大量石油過剩需要處理，但令人鼓舞的數(shù)字促使一些頂級(jí)能源分析師做出了樂觀的評(píng)估。高盛集團(tuán)大宗商品研究主管表示，全球石油需求正處于“改善軌道”，到6月初可能會(huì)超過供應(yīng)。渣打銀行表示，在進(jìn)入今年剩余時(shí)間的過度消費(fèi)之前，市場(chǎng)將在7月份恢復(fù)平衡。

CMC Markets Asia Pacific首席市場(chǎng)策略師邁克爾?麥卡錫(Michael McCarthy)表示:“減產(chǎn)和樂觀情緒的結(jié)合，正在支撐油價(jià)?！辈贿^他也警示稱，一些宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，需求改善的情緒可能是錯(cuò)誤的，庫(kù)存增加仍有可能打壓市場(chǎng)的樂觀情緒。

截至倫敦時(shí)間上午7點(diǎn)12分，紐約商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 6月份交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(West Texas Intermediate)期貨價(jià)格上漲4.3%，至每桶24.57美元，周四收盤下跌1.8%。布倫特原油7月份結(jié)算價(jià)上漲2.8%，至30.28美元，使本周迄今的漲幅達(dá)到15%左右。

盡管沙特的定價(jià)聲明讓市場(chǎng)松了一口氣，但要維持較高的價(jià)格，需求將需要強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。作為歐佩克+協(xié)議的一部分，沙特于4月底開始減產(chǎn)，但上月原油出口數(shù)量仍創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄。渣打銀行數(shù)據(jù)顯示，4月份全球石油供應(yīng)過剩水平達(dá)2130萬(wàn)桶/天。

美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上周美國(guó)汽油日供應(yīng)量增加了80.4萬(wàn)桶，為2018年6月以來的最大增幅，而汽油與柴油的溢價(jià)則攀升至2017年以來的最高水平。據(jù)市場(chǎng)人士透露，Genscape周四報(bào)告稱，自上周五以來，庫(kù)欣的庫(kù)存已減少了35萬(wàn)桶。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

Oil set for second weekly gain with market starting to rebalance

Oil headed for its first back-to-back weekly gain since February as output cuts from the biggest producers and a nascent recovery in demand began to rebalance a market awash with crude.

Futures in New York rose toward $25 a barrel on Friday and are up around 24% so far this week. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, raised the cost of almost all grades for June, suggesting it’s more interested in supporting a recovery in prices than winning market share.

There was also more evidence demand is starting to comeback in the U.S. Gasoline supplied, an indicator of consumption, rose by the most in almost two years last week, while Genscape Inc. reported that stockpiles at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma have fallen since last Friday, which would be the first contraction since late February if confirmed by government data.

While there’s still a massive glut to clear, the encouraging numbers are prompting optimistic assessments from some of the top energy analysts. Global oil demand is on an “improving trajectory” and may exceed supply by the start of June, said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The market will return to balance in July before moving into excess consumption for the rest of the year, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

“The combination of production cuts and optimism is supporting prices for now,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific. However, some macroeconomic data suggests the sentiment on improving demand could be misplaced and there’s still a risk that rising inventories could crush the positivity, he said.

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose 4.3% to $24.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:12 a.m. in London after closing down 1.8% on Thursday. Brent for July settlement added 2.8% to $30.28, taking its advance so far this week to around 15%.

While the Saudi pricing announcement brought relief to the market, a robust increase in demand will be needed to sustain higher prices. The kingdom began curbing production in late April as part of the OPEC+ deal, but still exported record amounts of crude last month. The level of excess global supply averaged 21.3 million barrels a day in April, according to Standard Chartered.

U.S. weekly gasoline supplied rose by 804,000 barrels a day last week, the biggest jump since June 2018, according the Energy Information Administration, while the fuel’s premium to diesel climbed to the highest since 2017. Genscape reported on Thursday that stockpiles at Cushing have fallen by 350,000 barrels since last Friday, according to market participants.