油價上漲勢頭放緩

據(jù)彭博社5月6日報道，隨著減產(chǎn)緩解供應(yīng)過剩的樂觀情緒與市場對未來將出現(xiàn)的長期且不確定復(fù)蘇的擔(dān)憂感相抵消，油價在五天內(nèi)翻了一番后，漲勢放緩。

紐約期貨價格在亞洲股市漲跌互現(xiàn)后，跌至每桶24美元。戴蒙德貝克能源公司（Diamondback Energy Inc.）和歐芹能源公司（Parsley Energy Inc.）成為最新兩家削減大型頁巖油田產(chǎn)量的美國鉆探商，但它們表示，如果油價升至30美元以上，它們將考慮恢復(fù)產(chǎn)量。

歐佩克自5月1日起開始實(shí)施每日970萬桶的減產(chǎn)措施，加上一些需求復(fù)蘇的初步跡象幫助緩解了全球原油和燃料儲備空間將告罄的擔(dān)憂。摩根士丹利表示，供應(yīng)過?？赡芤堰_(dá)到峰值，不過供應(yīng)過剩的狀況可能還會持續(xù)幾周。

交易員們預(yù)計周漲幅將繼續(xù)放緩，盡管石油市場最糟糕的時期可能已經(jīng)過去，但多數(shù)分析師認(rèn)為，至少在一年內(nèi)，石油消費(fèi)不會反彈至病毒爆發(fā)前的水平，不過，也有一些人對此產(chǎn)生質(zhì)疑。

荷蘭國際集團(tuán)(ING Bank)駐新加坡大宗商品策略主管帕特森(Warren Patterson)表示:“過去一周我們看到的強(qiáng)勁增長，在很大程度上是由需求復(fù)蘇的早期跡象推動的。然而，值得注意的是，只有需求大幅改善，同時供應(yīng)削減，才能看到市場繼續(xù)走高的趨勢?！?/span>

截至倫敦時間上午7點(diǎn)25分，紐約商品交易所6月份交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(West Texas Intermediate)下跌0.9%，至每桶24.35美元，周二收于近一個月來的最高水平。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI) 6月份的價格比7月份低2美元左右，而上周早些時候還在5美元以上，這表明對供應(yīng)過剩的擔(dān)憂已有所緩解。

歐洲洲際期貨交易所7月份交割的布倫特原油期貨價格下跌0.3%，至每桶30.87美元。前一個交易日，油價上漲14%，三周來首次收于每桶30美元以上。根據(jù)標(biāo)普數(shù)據(jù)顯示，布倫特原油期貨合約價格周二報23.835美元/桶。

對沖基金韋斯特貝克資本管理公司（Westbeck Capital Management）表示，原油市場的牛市現(xiàn)在“只是例外”的情況。該基金4月錄得歷史最佳單月表現(xiàn)，此前該基金在做空油價方面處于領(lǐng)先地位。該組織表示，4月份的需求損失被高估了，停產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象發(fā)生的速度也快于預(yù)期。

據(jù)知情人士透露，美國石油學(xué)會(American Petroleum Institute)報告稱，上周美國原油庫存增加了844萬桶。如果美國能源信息署(Energy Information Administration)周三公布的數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)了這一消息，這將是自截至3月20日當(dāng)周以來的最小增幅。API稱，俄克拉荷馬州庫欣(Cushing)的石油儲備中心增加了268萬桶石油儲量。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil Rally Runs Out of Steam After Prices Doubled Over Five Days

Oil’s rally ran out of steam -- after prices doubled over five days -- as optimism that output cuts are easing the supply glut was balanced by trepidation over what promises to be a long and uncertain recovery.

Futures in New York fell toward $24 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses in Asian trading. Diamondback Energy Inc. and Parsley Energy Inc. became the latest U.S. drillers to cut production in the country’s biggest shale fields, but said they would consider restoring output if prices rose above $30.

OPEC+ began implementing 9.7 million barrels per day of production curbs on May 1, which along with some early signs of demand recovery has helped to ease fears the world will run out of storage space for crude and fuels. The supply glut has probably hit its apex, according to Morgan Stanley, though the market will likely remain oversupplied for several weeks.

Traders hoping the pace of weekly gains will continue to slow

While it’s possible the worst is over for oil markets, most analysts don’t see a rebound to pre-virus levels of consumption for at least a year, with some questioning if it will ever happen.

“A large part of the strength that we have seen over the past week has been driven by early signs of a demand recovery,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV in Singapore. “However, clearly we will need to see a substantial improvement in demand, along with supply cuts, in order to see the market continuing to trend higher.”

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery declined 0.9% to $24.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:25 a.m. in London after closing at the highest level in almost a month on Tuesday. WTI for June is now around $2 cheaper than for July, compared with more than $5 early last week, suggesting concerns about over-supply have eased.

Brent for July settlement fell 0.3% to $30.87 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. It jumped 14% in the previous session to finish above $30 a barrel for the first time in three weeks. Dated Brent, a reference for two-thirds of the world’s oil flows, was at $23.835 on Tuesday, according to traders monitoring prices from S&P Global Platts.

Hedge fund Westbeck Capital Management, which posted its best ever month in April after being short oil prices in the front of the curve, said the bull case for crude is now “simply exceptional.” April demand losses were overestimated and shut-ins are happening faster than anticipated, the fund said.

U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 8.44 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported, according to people familiar with the data. That would be the smallest increase since the week through March 20 if confirmed by Energy Information Administration figures due Wednesday. Supplies at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 2.68 million barrels, the API said.