全球油氣市場(chǎng)前景堪憂

據(jù)4月22日Rigzone報(bào)道，安永全球油氣稅主管德里克萊思（Derek Leith）指出，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格下跌是由美國(guó)境內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)和需求不平衡造成的，并不能反映全球石油和天然氣行業(yè)的狀況。

萊思表示，美國(guó)大部分石油都在內(nèi)陸生產(chǎn)，隨著儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施接近最大產(chǎn)能，美國(guó)WTI基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格進(jìn)一步下跌在所難免。油價(jià)之所以出現(xiàn)每桶負(fù)40美元這一“引人注目”的水平，是因?yàn)榻鹑诮灰讍T持有的5月份合約數(shù)量“相對(duì)較少”，必須在到期前出售，但卻發(fā)現(xiàn)“根本沒有買家”。歐佩克+削減石油供應(yīng)將“把事情轉(zhuǎn)向正確的方向”，但他強(qiáng)調(diào)，這些要到5月1日大規(guī)模減產(chǎn)開始之際才能顯現(xiàn)。

他補(bǔ)充道，從中期來(lái)看，減產(chǎn)行動(dòng)應(yīng)該可以重新平衡供求關(guān)系，因?yàn)殡S著人們的生產(chǎn)生活漸漸步入正軌，全球需求將會(huì)增加。不過(guò)，由于市場(chǎng)1500萬(wàn)桶/天的石油供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，且油價(jià)一直停留在較低水平，也不能確定市場(chǎng)是否會(huì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)出現(xiàn)震蕩，而西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)的大幅下跌，也在給予人們警示。

雖然周一西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油價(jià)格的暴跌不會(huì)直接影響到英國(guó)大陸架(UKCS)，但這是對(duì)油價(jià)波動(dòng)的一個(gè)“高調(diào)提醒”，英國(guó)的小型石油生產(chǎn)商會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，以“現(xiàn)行市場(chǎng)價(jià)格”出售原油非常困難。油田服務(wù)行業(yè)也還沒有從2014年的油價(jià)下跌中恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)，而當(dāng)前的低需求環(huán)境更是令該行業(yè)雪上加霜。

規(guī)模較小的企業(yè)將重新關(guān)注于降低運(yùn)營(yíng)成本，那些反應(yīng)迅速、靈活、戰(zhàn)略審慎的公司，很可能在中長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)處于更有利的地位。

鄒勤 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

US Oil Price Drop Not Reflective of Global Sector

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price drop is not reflective of the oil and gas industry worldwide but is very specifically driven by the production and demand imbalance in the United States.

That’s what Aberdeen-based Derek Leith, EY’s Global Lead for Oil and Gas Tax, said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.

“Most of the production is land-locked, and with storage facilities close to maximum capacity a further fall in the U.S. benchmark crude, WTI, was inevitable,” Leith told Rigzone.

The EY representative outlined that the “headline-grabbing” oil price of -$40 per barrel was driven by a “relatively small” number of May contracts held by financial traders having to be sold before they expired and the sellers finding there were “absolutely no buyers”.

Leith went on to say that the OPEC+ supply cuts will “shift things in the right direction” but highlighted that these do not start until May 1.

“In the medium term this action should be enough to rebalance the relationship between supply and demand as global demand will increase as the Covid-19 lockdown comes to an end,” Leith stated.

“However, we should expect a lot of volatility over the next couple of months and for crude prices to sit in the lower range as we experience a supply overhang of as much as 15 million barrels a day,” he added.

WTI Plunge Stark Reminder of Volatility

Leith warned that, while Monday’s plunging WTI price won’t directly impact the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), it’s a “stark reminder” of oil price volatility and that smaller UKCS producers may find it “very hard” to sell their crude at the “prevailing market rate”.

“The oil field services sector hasn’t recovered from the 2014 fall in oil price and this has been compounded by the current low-demand environment,” Leith stated.

“There is likely to be a renewed focus and rigour on decreasing operational costs, particularly for smaller players,” he added.

“The companies which respond quickly, are agile and carefully strategic are likely to emerge in a better position in the medium and long-term,” Leith went on to say.