史上最大的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩導(dǎo)致石油運(yùn)費(fèi)上漲

據(jù)油氣新聞3月23日消息稱，從4月開(kāi)始，全球石油供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)有史以來(lái)單季度最大的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，造成每日約1000萬(wàn)桶的供應(yīng)失衡。雷斯塔能源的獨(dú)家分析顯示，全球存儲(chǔ)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施陷入困境，在短短幾個(gè)月內(nèi)將無(wú)法接收更多的原油和產(chǎn)品。

我們目前的流動(dòng)性平衡顯示，到2020年，平均每日供應(yīng)將超過(guò)石油需求近600萬(wàn)桶，導(dǎo)致今年累計(jì)隱含庫(kù)存增加20億桶。

根據(jù)我們的嚴(yán)格分析，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)目前世界上大約有72億桶原油和產(chǎn)品儲(chǔ)存，其中包括目前在海上油輪上的13億到14億桶。我們估計(jì)，平均而言，全球76%的石油儲(chǔ)藏量已經(jīng)飽和。

油輪上基本上沒(méi)有閑置的儲(chǔ)油能力，因?yàn)樯程匕⒗推渌a(chǎn)油國(guó)可能已經(jīng)在2020年3月和4月消耗了超大型油輪(VLCC)的可用儲(chǔ)量。

我們的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前在岸原油和成品油的理論可儲(chǔ)存能力僅為17億桶。根據(jù)我們對(duì)2020年平均每日600萬(wàn)桶隱含石油庫(kù)存的預(yù)估，理論上講，需要9個(gè)月的時(shí)間才能填滿所有岸上儲(chǔ)油罐。

浮動(dòng)存儲(chǔ)通常使用VLCC，它們可以儲(chǔ)存約200萬(wàn)桶石油。我們估計(jì)，目前全球大約有802艘可用的VLCC，總載重量為2.5億噸，總儲(chǔ)油能力為18億桶。整個(gè)全球艦隊(duì)，包括較小的Suezmax和Aframax船，估計(jì)總?cè)萘繛?.3億噸或46億桶。

但是，為了保持區(qū)域之間的石油流動(dòng)，必須有大約50％的壓載物，因?yàn)橛洼喗?jīng)常需要空載抵達(dá)目的地，在目的地，它們需要裝載貨物，這意味著，在任何時(shí)候，世界上約有一半的油輪被預(yù)訂前往消費(fèi)目的地，而另一半空油輪在去取油的途中。這使得可用船只的數(shù)量減少到57艘左右。

根據(jù)目的地的不同，在現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)租一輛VLCC的成本已從上月的每日約2萬(wàn)美元升至20萬(wàn)至30萬(wàn)美元之間。

Rodriguez-Masiu總結(jié)道：“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與當(dāng)前的生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃相比，液體供應(yīng)將必須減少約300萬(wàn)至400萬(wàn)桶/日，以使隱含庫(kù)存量在2020年接近200萬(wàn)至300萬(wàn)桶/日，這是我們認(rèn)為在中短期內(nèi)可持續(xù)的隱含庫(kù)存水平?！?/span>

曹海斌 摘譯自 油氣新聞

原文如下：

History’s Largest Oil Glut Months Away From Topping World Storage While Tanker Freight Rates Explode

The largest oil supply surplus the world has ever seen in a single quarter is about to hit the global market from April, creating an imbalance of around 10 million barrels per day (bpd). An exclusive Rystad Energy analysis shows global storage infrastructure is in trouble and will be unable to take more crude and products in just a few months.

Our current liquid balances show supply surpassing oil demand by an average of nearly 6 million bpd in 2020, resulting in an accumulated implied storage build of 2.0 billion barrels this year.

Based on our rigorous analysis, we find that the world currently has around 7.2 billion barrels crude and products in storage, including 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion barrels currently onboard oil tankers at sea. We estimate that, on average, 76% of the world's oil storage capacity is already full.

There is essentially no idle storage capacity available on tankers, as Saudi Arabia and other producers might have already wiped out the available population of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) for March and April 2020.

Our data shows that the theoretical available storage capacity at present is just 1.7 billion barrels onshore for crude and products combined. Using our estimate of an average of 6.0 million bpd of implied oil stock builds for 2020, in theory, it would take nine months to fill all onshore tanks.

Floating storage normally uses VLCCs, which can carry about 2.0 million barrels. We estimate that there are about 802 VLCCs active globally with a combined capacity of 250 million deadweight tonnage (dwt), capable of collectively storing 1.8 billion barrels. The entire global fleet, including smaller Suezmax and Aframax vessels, is estimated to have a combined capacity of 630 million dwt or 4.6 billion barrels.

However, to keep oil flowing between regions, a ballast of around 50% is necessary as cargos often need to travel with no cargo to the destinations where they pick up oil, meaning that at any given time around half of the world’s fleet is booked traveling to consumer destinations, while the other half is empty on their way to pick up oil. This reduces the number of available vessels to about 57.

The cost of renting a VLCC on the spot market has risen from about $20,000 per day last month to between $200,000 and $300,000, depending on destination.

“We find that liquid supply will have to be reduced by around 3.0 million to 4.0 million bpd compared to the current production planning to bring the implied stocks builds closer to 2.0 million to 3.0 million bpd for 2020, which is the level of implied stocks build that we find sustainable in the short to medium term,“ Rodriguez-Masiu concludes.