全球最大石油交易商預(yù)計(jì)今年需求將強(qiáng)勁反彈

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月20日消息：全球最大的獨(dú)立石油交易商維多集團(tuán)(Vitol Group)表示，從現(xiàn)在到明年年底，全球石油需求將出現(xiàn)反彈，預(yù)計(jì)到2022年底，石油消費(fèi)量將從目前的水平上升800萬(wàn)桶/天。

維多首席執(zhí)行官拉塞爾?哈迪表示，目前石油需求比2019年的正常水平低350萬(wàn)桶/天，當(dāng)時(shí)的消費(fèi)量約為1億桶/天。

哈迪還表示，重新開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)體和亞洲需求將支持今年年底到2022年的強(qiáng)勁需求反彈。航空燃油的需求復(fù)蘇速度將慢于其他石油產(chǎn)品，到年底仍將比2019年水平低150萬(wàn)桶/天。不過(guò)，其他產(chǎn)品，尤其是石化產(chǎn)品的激增，將抵消航空燃油需求復(fù)蘇的滯后。

去年積累的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的10億桶石油盈余已經(jīng)消耗一半以上。哈迪告訴彭博社，按照目前200萬(wàn)桶/天的減產(chǎn)速度，剩余的過(guò)剩石油庫(kù)存將在今年第三季度末耗盡，盡管歐佩克+計(jì)劃到7月份增產(chǎn)200萬(wàn)桶/天。

維多對(duì)石油過(guò)剩的看法與其他預(yù)測(cè)人士和分析師類似，他們表示，過(guò)剩庫(kù)存的末日即將到來(lái)。

哈迪對(duì)彭博社表示，今年剩余時(shí)間里，歐佩克+將繼續(xù)擔(dān)任市場(chǎng)管理者，在需求激增的情況下，該聯(lián)盟將確保市場(chǎng)平衡，因?yàn)樵摻M織擁有最大的閑置產(chǎn)能。

馮娟 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

World’s Largest Oil Trader Expects Strong Demand Rebound This Year

Global oil demand is set for a rebound between now and the end of next year, with consumption expected to rise from current levels by as much as 8 million barrels per day (bpd) by end-2022, according to the world’s largest independent oil trader, Vitol Group.

“We will need all eight cylinders to get through 2022,” Vitol’s chief executive Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday.

Currently, oil demand is somewhere 3.5 million bpd below the “normal” levels of 2019, when consumption was around 100 million bpd, according to Hardy.

But reopening economies and Asian demand are set to support a strong demand rebound by the end of this year and into 2022, Hardy said. Demand for jet fuel will recover more slowly than other oil products and would still be 1.5 million bpd below 2019 levels by year end. Still, a surge in other products, especially in petrochemicals, will offset the lag in jet fuel demand recovery, Vitol’s executive told Bloomberg.

The record oil surplus of 1 billion barrels amassed last year is already more than halfway drained, Hardy said. At the current pace of drawdowns of 2 million bpd, the remaining excess oil stocks will be depleted by the end of the third quarter this year, even with the planned OPEC+ increase in production of 2 million bpd through July, Hardy told Bloomberg.

Vitol’s view on the oil glut is similar to that of other forecasters and analysts, who say that the end of the excess inventories is in sight.

For the rest of this year, OPEC+ will continue to be the market manager, and it would be up to the alliance to ensure a balanced market with demand surging, because the group holds the largest spare capacity, Hardy told Bloomberg.

“That’s going to come from OPEC because there is no other massive expansion coming because there is generally capital discipline across the West,” Hardy said.