石油市場(chǎng)已發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化

據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，一年的變化真是太大了!這似乎是當(dāng)下一個(gè)老生常談的話了，但去年4月因一系列意外“黑天鵝事件”而發(fā)生危機(jī)的石油市場(chǎng)，如今正隨著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的樂(lè)觀前景在穩(wěn)步向好。在此過(guò)程中，各國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)和全球原油的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)從巨大的正價(jià)差變成了現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)，當(dāng)前，歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)正在放松減產(chǎn)，值得一提的是，減產(chǎn)政策已經(jīng)實(shí)施了四年之久。

2020年4月20日，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油在紐約商品交易所的價(jià)格轉(zhuǎn)為負(fù)值，并前所未有的以負(fù)37.63美元的價(jià)格結(jié)算，因?yàn)榭只诺馁u(mài)方被迫不惜一切代價(jià)拋售其持有的2020年5月到期的合約。震驚的市場(chǎng)觀察人士很難接受花錢(qián)雇人買(mǎi)走自己石油的想法。石油市場(chǎng)崩潰了——沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯之間的市場(chǎng)份額之戰(zhàn)，百年一遇的疫情危機(jī)，以及美國(guó)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的石油庫(kù)存。這些不可能發(fā)生的事件不斷發(fā)生，令人眼花繚亂。

更令人震驚的是，自那以后石油市場(chǎng)發(fā)生了顯著的轉(zhuǎn)變。今天，石油期貨在60美元/桶的價(jià)格輕松交易，在新冠肺炎疫苗快速部署的推動(dòng)下，世界上一些大型的經(jīng)濟(jì)體正在逐步重新開(kāi)放，在經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織較富裕國(guó)家，政府的慷慨刺激措施對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生了積極影響。

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署（IEA)的數(shù)據(jù)，隨著全球石油需求的加快，對(duì)全球石油儲(chǔ)備的擔(dān)憂幾乎已經(jīng)消失，經(jīng)合組織(OECD)的商業(yè)庫(kù)存已經(jīng)從2020年7月創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2.49億桶降至五年平均水平。盡管仍未走出困境，但已較一年前有顯著好轉(zhuǎn)，這讓市場(chǎng)再次審視2020年上半年的石油市場(chǎng)危機(jī)。

首先是沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)危機(jī)。

當(dāng)時(shí)，紐約商品交易所的美國(guó)原油基準(zhǔn)合約一度變得毫無(wú)價(jià)值，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯不僅未能在歐佩克+會(huì)議上就減產(chǎn)達(dá)成一致，還決定向市場(chǎng)額外釋放數(shù)百萬(wàn)桶原油。與此同時(shí)，全球石油需求直線下降，消費(fèi)受到疫情的沉重打擊。

雙方都是不太可能合作的，它們的目標(biāo)是從美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商手中奪取市場(chǎng)份額，但它們對(duì)自己的地位管理得非常糟糕。俄羅斯顯然低估了2020年第一季度末第一波出行限制措施實(shí)行之后的燃料消耗崩潰。在那段被稱(chēng)為“黑色四月”的日子，全球石油需求從兩個(gè)月前創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1億桶/天暴跌多達(dá)3500萬(wàn)桶。

雪上加霜的是，沙特下令增加原油產(chǎn)量，俄羅斯拒絕減產(chǎn)，引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)持續(xù)五周的市場(chǎng)份額爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)。使得所有歐佩克成員國(guó)都面臨著他們經(jīng)濟(jì)所依賴(lài)的石油市場(chǎng)的崩潰。幸好，最終歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)達(dá)成一致意見(jiàn)，將原油產(chǎn)量減少980萬(wàn)桶/天——約占全球石油產(chǎn)量的10%，參與這一歷史性協(xié)議的國(guó)家減產(chǎn)了23%。

當(dāng)時(shí)，幾乎沒(méi)有分析師能夠預(yù)計(jì)，為拯救即將崩潰的市場(chǎng)而建立的聯(lián)盟能維持這么長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。目前，俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯繼續(xù)制約著約60%的產(chǎn)量。

也正是因?yàn)闅W佩克+成功地推動(dòng)全球石油市場(chǎng)接近平衡，并將原油價(jià)格推升至每桶60美元以上，歐佩克+如今的影響力比疫情爆發(fā)前更強(qiáng)。在最近一次會(huì)議上，歐佩克+同意在未來(lái)三個(gè)月逐步恢復(fù)部分產(chǎn)量，這反映了對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)樂(lè)觀前景的預(yù)期。歐佩克+將于4月28日再次召開(kāi)會(huì)議。

第二是前所未有的出行限制措施。

當(dāng)全球疫情第一次爆發(fā)時(shí)，人們擔(dān)心世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將滑入深度衰退(如果不是蕭條的話)。在2020年春季實(shí)行出行限制措施期間，學(xué)校和被那些被認(rèn)為是非必要的企業(yè)，大范圍關(guān)閉，使需求枯竭，人們的生活偏離軌道。當(dāng)時(shí)，全球最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)——美國(guó)的汽油消費(fèi)量徘徊在506.5萬(wàn)桶/天的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低水平上。

在美國(guó)，事實(shí)證明，封鎖地方和州經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和石油產(chǎn)品需求的效果較差。加州州長(zhǎng)加文·紐森于2020年12月頒布的加州禁令基本上仍停留在紙面上，洛杉磯的高速公路上擠滿了車(chē)輛，購(gòu)物者蜂擁到商場(chǎng)進(jìn)行最后一刻的假日購(gòu)物。公眾的疲勞和對(duì)隔離措施的不遵守，加上聯(lián)邦政府通過(guò)直接刺激支付的慷慨，刺激了美國(guó)燃料消耗比預(yù)期更快的復(fù)蘇。

到2020年8月，供應(yīng)給美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的汽油達(dá)到疫情爆發(fā)前886.5萬(wàn)桶/天的水平，盡管部分經(jīng)濟(jì)體仍處于關(guān)閉狀態(tài)。經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）中較富裕的國(guó)家制定了一套刺激性的政策組合，以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。大規(guī)模的支出計(jì)劃，包括個(gè)人化的刺激支出、慷慨的失業(yè)救濟(jì)金、對(duì)企業(yè)的貸款援助和抵押貸款減免等，不僅使經(jīng)濟(jì)擺脫衰退，而且推動(dòng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。自從疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)，美國(guó)政府已經(jīng)花費(fèi)了近6萬(wàn)億美元，而2008年金融危機(jī)之后，美國(guó)政府才批準(zhǔn)了7000億美元，這在疫情爆發(fā)前是無(wú)法想象的。

據(jù)估計(jì)，在疫情爆發(fā)的前9個(gè)月，美國(guó)家庭已經(jīng)囤積了3萬(wàn)億美元的“超額儲(chǔ)蓄”，相當(dāng)于每年消費(fèi)者支出的十分之一。經(jīng)合組織的一份展望報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年底，美國(guó)的人口規(guī)模將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄。

第三是疫苗的不斷推廣。

不可否認(rèn)，當(dāng)前復(fù)蘇的主要推動(dòng)力是疫苗的快速開(kāi)發(fā)和分發(fā)，在不到一年的時(shí)間內(nèi)已經(jīng)生產(chǎn)和使用了數(shù)億劑疫苗。自從輝瑞和德國(guó)合作伙伴BioNtech宣布他們的使用MRA技術(shù)的實(shí)驗(yàn)性疫苗在預(yù)防嚴(yán)重病例方面有95%的有效性以來(lái)，石油期貨開(kāi)始了長(zhǎng)達(dá)5個(gè)月幾乎不間斷的上漲勢(shì)頭。

美國(guó)的疫苗接種運(yùn)動(dòng)在1月中旬左右加快了速度，從每天不到100萬(wàn)劑增加到目前的350萬(wàn)劑。該國(guó)繼續(xù)向“群體免疫”邁進(jìn)，迄今已注射了2億多劑疫苗。

盡管第一季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)弱于預(yù)期，但國(guó)際能源署(IEA)預(yù)計(jì)，隨著疫苗供應(yīng)的增加以及各經(jīng)濟(jì)體繼續(xù)開(kāi)放，今年下半年全球需求將恢復(fù)到比疫情爆發(fā)前低3%的水平。

IEA所稱(chēng)的“黑色四月”是全球石油市場(chǎng)有史以來(lái)最黑暗的月份之一，一年過(guò)去了，石油市場(chǎng)基本面看起來(lái)已明顯走強(qiáng)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

A World Of Difference: One Year After Oil Prices Went Negative

What a difference a year makes! It might sound like a cliché, but the oil market that was turned on its head last April by a confluence of unexpected Black Swan events is trending higher alongside a rosy outlook for the U.S. economy. Along the way, the market structure for domestic and global crude oil turned from a yawning contango to backwardation, while the consortium of oil producers including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and nine additional countries, also known as OPEC+ are unwinding production cuts, which have been in place for more than four years.

On April 20, 2020 the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange turned negative and settled the historic day at a minus $37.63 bbl as panicked sellers were forced to dump their holdings of the expiring May 2020 contract at any cost. Stunned market observers had a difficult time wrapping their heads around the idea of paying someone to take your oil. Was oil trading breaking down in the jaws of a pandemic? Three events occurred leading to the great oil crash of April 2020 -- a market share war between Saudi Arabia and Russia; a once in a century pandemic; and record-high U.S. oil inventories. The improbable events, feeding upon themselves, occurred in dizzying quick succession.

Perhaps more stunning is the remarkable turnaround that has taken place in the oil market since then. Today, oil futures are comfortably trading in the $60s bbl, some of the largest economies around the world are gradually reopening, propelled by the fast deployment of COVID-19 vaccines and, in wealthier countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, generous government stimulus has had a positive impact on economic growth.

As global oil demand is picking up pace, concerns about securing oil storage worldwide have all but evaporated, with commercial inventories across the OECD already falling to their five-year average from an all-time peak at 249 million bbl in July 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.

While still not out of the woods, the remarkable turnaround over the last twelve months warrants another look at the oil market crisis during a tumultuous period for the industry during the first half of 2020.

Saudi Arabia and Russia

A few weeks before the U.S. crude benchmark contract on the NYMEX briefly became worthless, Saudi Arabia and Russia not only failed to agree on output cuts during the OPEC+ meeting but decided to unleash millions of barrels of additional crude oil onto the market. All this while global oil demand was plummeting, with consumption crushed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Both parties, unlikely partners married out of practicality with the goal to capture market share from U.S. shale producers, greatly mismanaged their positions. Russia clearly underestimated the collapse in fuel consumption following the first wave of shutdowns late in the first quarter 2020. Global oil demand plummeted as much as 35 million bpd in what is now referred to as "Black April" from a record-high 100 million bpd just two months prior.

A heated Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman allowed his emotions to dictate Saudi policy while ordering an increase in the kingdom's crude production, the opposite of what he was counseling Moscow on, triggering a five-week war for market share. By refusing to preemptively agree to production cuts, Russia ensured all OPEC+ members were facing a very real collapse by a market their economies depended upon.

U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire between the crown prince and Vladimir Putin, with OPEC+ on April 12, 2020 agreeing to reduce crude oil production by 9.8 million bpd, about 10% of global oil production, with participants involved in the historic agreement cutting their output by 23%.

At the time, few analysts expected the alliance forged by the common goal to save the market from imminent collapse would hold up for as long as it did. Currently, Russia and Saudi Arabia continue to withhold about 60% of the production they decided to cut a year ago.

Bolstered by their success in moving the global oil market closer to balance, and with it pushing crude prices back above $60 bbl, OPEC's influence is stronger today than it had been prior to the pandemic. At their last meeting, inauspiciously held on April Fool’s Day, OPEC+ agreed to gradually restore a portion of their production over the next three months, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the global economy. OPEC+ meets again on April 28.

Unprecedented Policy

When the global pandemic first struck it was natural to fear that the world economy would slide into a deep recession if not depression. Economic controls implemented during the Spring 2020 lockdowns led to widespread shutdowns of schools and what were deemed nonessential businesses, sapping demand dry as life slipped further from normalcy. Consider that on this day a year ago gasoline consumption in the United States -- the world’s largest oil consumer -- was hovering just above a record low of 5.065 million bpd.

Locking down local and state economies proved less effective at curbing economic activity and, as such, demand for petroleum products. The California lockdown enacted by Governor Gavin Newsom in December 2020 remained largely on paper, with Los Angeles highways jammed with traffic and shoppers flocking to malls for last-minute holiday shopping. Public fatigue and eventual noncompliance with politically toxic quarantines along with federal largesse through direct stimulus payments spurred a faster-than-expected recovery in U.S. fuel consumption.

By August 2020, gasoline supplied to the U.S. market reached the pre-pandemic level of 8.865 million bpd despite parts of the economy remaining shut and new infections surging. Governments in rich OECD countries enacted a fiery policy mix to boost economic activity which did not require citizens to reengage in the larger economy. The massive payout schemes, including personalized stimulus checks, generous unemployment benefits, loan assistance for businesses and mortgage forbearance not only kept the economy out of recession, but fueled growth. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the U.S. government has spent almost $6 trillion compared with $700 billion authorized in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis 2008. The result was near unthinkable a year ago.

U.S. households are estimated to have stashed away $3 trillion in “excess savings” during the first nine months of the pandemic -- a tenth of annual consumer spending. An OECD outlook now expects the United States to be larger by the end of 2022 than it would have been if the pandemic never happened.

Vaccines

The main driver of the ongoing recovery is undeniably the rapid development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, with hundred of millions of doses already produced and administered in less than a year's time. Ever since Pfizer and German partner BioNtech announced their experimental vaccine using MRA-technology was 95% effective in preventing severe cases of the disease, oil futures began their nearly uninterrupted five-month long uptrend.

The U.S. vaccination campaign accelerated around mid-January from a little under 1 million doses to the current 3.5 million doses pace administrated each day. The country continues to move closer to “herd immunity,” with over 200 million doses having been administrated so far.

Despite weaker-than-expected data in the first quarter, the International Energy Agency expects that global demand will recover to just 3% below its pre-crisis level in the second half of the year as vaccines become more available and economies continue to reopen.

A year on from what the IEA called “Black April”, one of the darkest months ever for world oil markets, fundamentals look decidedly stronger.