耶金：明年油價可能高達每桶75美元

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年4月20日報道，石油專家和全球著名商業(yè)咨詢服務(wù)多元化提供商IHS Markit副董事長丹尼爾·耶金4月20日在接受CNBC記者采訪時表示，全球石油需求復(fù)蘇以及歐佩克+有大量備用產(chǎn)能沒有回到市場意味著，從現(xiàn)在起的一年里油價預(yù)計將在每桶60和75美元之間交易是合乎情理的。

耶金在CNBC的節(jié)目“Street Signs Asia”中表示，“如果世界其他地區(qū)經(jīng)濟真的復(fù)蘇，我認為油價將在每桶60-75美元區(qū)間交易是合理的。”

據(jù)這名石油專家所說，隨著美國和中國經(jīng)濟強勁復(fù)蘇，需求也將會反彈，但歐佩克+仍閑置的石油產(chǎn)能可能會抵消價格的任何超調(diào)。

耶金在評論一年后油價走勢時說：“壓力將會被抵消，更多供應(yīng)將會進來，我們將開始看到美國再次重新恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。”

一年前的今天，美國油價下跌。去年4月20日，WTI原油價格跌至零以下，收于每桶- 37美元，這是WTI原油期貨合約自1983年開始交易以來首次跌至負值。去年4月21日，國際基準布倫特原油價格跌至每桶10美元以下，至9.12美元，是幾十年來的最低日價格。

耶金對CNBC表示，展望未來，美國和中國的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇意味著石油需求的反彈，盡管歐洲的不確定性仍取決于全球需求的復(fù)蘇。

Yergin指出，今年夏天油價可能會像高盛預(yù)測的那樣升至80美元，但這個油價隨后可能會面臨政治壓力。

對于今年夏天的石油供應(yīng)，高盛公司預(yù)計強勁的需求將要求歐佩克+在今年第三季度向市場再增加200萬桶/日的原油供應(yīng)，在此之前歐佩克+和沙特阿拉伯決定在5月至7月期間日恢復(fù)供應(yīng)約200萬桶石油。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)上周表示，今年夏季油價可能會停留在65- 70美元區(qū)間，由于美國鉆井活動增加和伊朗可能恢復(fù)出口，該公司日前暫時調(diào)降了油價70美元的預(yù)估。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Yergin: Oil Prices Could Go As High As $75 In 2022

The global oil demand recovery and a lot of spare capacity that OPEC+ has yet to bring back to the market suggest it is reasonable to expect that oil prices will trade between $60 and $75 a barrel one year from now, oil expert and IHS Markit Vice Chairman, Daniel Yergin, told CNBC on Tuesday.

“If we really do have the rest of the world recover, I think it’s reasonable to think that oil would be in that $60 to $75 range,” Yergin told the CNBC program “Street Signs Asia.”

Demand is set to rebound with the United States and China recovering strongly, but the oil production capacity that OPEC+ still keeps offline would probably offset any overshoots in prices, according to the oil expert.

“There’ll be offsetting pressures, and more supply would come in and we’d start to see the U.S. coming back into production again,” Yergin said, commenting on where prices will be one year from now.

The comments came one year to the day after U.S. oil prices turned negative. On April 20, 2020, the price of WTI Crude crashed below zero to close at -$37 a barrel—the first time the WTI Crude futures contract had fallen below zero since trading began in 1983. On April 21, 2020, the international benchmark, Brent Crude, crashed to below $10 a barrel—at $9.12 per barrel, its lowest daily price in decades.

Going forward, the economic recovery in the U.S. and China point to oil demand rebounding, although the uncertainty over Europe still hangs on the global demand recovery, Yergin told CNBC.

Oil could go to as high as $80 this summer, as Goldman Sachs forecasts, but then political pressure against $80 oil could emerge, Yergin noted.

For this summer, Goldman Sachs anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.

Oil prices will likely be stuck in the $65-$70 range this summer, Morgan Stanley said last week, tempering its previous forecast for $70 oil with temporary overshoots because of rising U.S. drilling activity and the potential return of Iranian exports.