EIA預(yù)測(cè)墨西哥灣原油產(chǎn)量將在未來(lái)兩年增加

據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)4月20日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)最新的短期能源展望(STEO)顯示， EIA預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)聯(lián)邦墨西哥灣(GOM)的原油產(chǎn)量將在未來(lái)兩年內(nèi)增加。到2022年底，13個(gè)新項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)占到墨西哥灣原油總產(chǎn)量的12%，即約20萬(wàn)桶/天。

GOM產(chǎn)量占美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量的15%-16%。去年，GOM原油日均產(chǎn)量為165萬(wàn)桶。預(yù)計(jì)今年日產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)2020年的水平，達(dá)到171萬(wàn)桶，2022年將達(dá)到175萬(wàn)桶。自2000年以來(lái)，原油產(chǎn)量最高的年份是2019年，為190萬(wàn)桶/日。

據(jù)雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）表示，大型海上項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)需要數(shù)年時(shí)間。其中四個(gè)新項(xiàng)目可能將于2021年投產(chǎn)，另外九個(gè)將于2022年投產(chǎn)。原油生產(chǎn)取決于地質(zhì)條件、經(jīng)濟(jì)和項(xiàng)目時(shí)間表。未來(lái)石油市場(chǎng)仍存在不確定性，因此未來(lái)項(xiàng)目的時(shí)間表可能會(huì)相應(yīng)改變。

颶風(fēng)是墨西哥灣預(yù)報(bào)中的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素。大西洋颶風(fēng)季節(jié)通常是6月1日至11月30日。盡管有8個(gè)新項(xiàng)目已于去年開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)原油，但由于與新冠疫情有關(guān)的封鎖和有記錄以來(lái)最活躍的大西洋颶風(fēng)季節(jié)，年產(chǎn)量低于2019年的水平。去年10月颶風(fēng)德?tīng)査℉urricane Delta）在兩天內(nèi)關(guān)閉了160萬(wàn)桶石油產(chǎn)量，這是颶風(fēng)季節(jié)關(guān)閉石油產(chǎn)量的最高峰值。然而，熱帶風(fēng)暴馬可（Marco）和颶風(fēng)勞拉（Laura）的共同影響導(dǎo)致了15天的停產(chǎn)，這使颶風(fēng)德?tīng)査耐．a(chǎn)總量增加了一倍多，造成了自2008年以來(lái)最多的停產(chǎn)。

科羅拉多州立大學(xué)的季節(jié)性颶風(fēng)預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)測(cè)，2021年大西洋颶風(fēng)季節(jié)將高于40年來(lái)的平均水平。該大學(xué)估計(jì)有8場(chǎng)颶風(fēng)和17場(chǎng)命名風(fēng)暴。美國(guó)國(guó)家海洋和大氣管理局將于5月發(fā)布2021年大西洋颶風(fēng)季節(jié)展望。颶風(fēng)對(duì)墨西哥灣石油和天然氣行業(yè)的實(shí)際影響難以確定，因?yàn)轱Z風(fēng)路徑對(duì)影響的大小有重大影響。颶風(fēng)路徑直到天氣模式建立才能確定，這發(fā)生在颶風(fēng)襲擊前幾天。

為了在STEO中預(yù)測(cè)颶風(fēng)停工，我們使用歷史數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)確定大西洋颶風(fēng)季節(jié)停工的平均百分比。從歷史上看，大多數(shù)GOM關(guān)閉都發(fā)生在10月。去年，與颶風(fēng)有關(guān)的破壞活動(dòng)比八月份的熱帶風(fēng)暴Marco和Laura颶風(fēng)開(kāi)始的時(shí)間要早。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil Production Will Increase with New Projects in 2021 and 2022

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production in the U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to increase in the next two years, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). By the end of 2022, 13 new projects could account for about 12% of total GOM crude oil production, or about 200,000 bpd.

The GOM accounts for 15%–16% of U.S. crude oil production. In 2020, GOM crude oil production averaged 1.65 million b/d. Production is forecast to exceed 2020 levels, reaching 1.71 million b/d in 2021 and 1.75 MMbpd in 2022. Since 2000, the highest crude oil production year was 2019 at 1.9 MMbpd.

Large offshore projects take several years to develop. Four of the new projects will likely begin production in 2021 and nine more in 2022, according to Rystad Energy. Crude oil production is subject to geologic conditions, economics, and project timelines. The future oil markets still remain uncertain, so future projects' timelines may change accordingly.

Hurricanes are a critical element in the GOM forecast. The Atlantic hurricane season is typically June 1–November 30. Although eight new projects started crude oil production in 2020, annual production was lower than 2019 levels because of pandemic-related shut-ins and the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. Hurricane Delta shut in 1.6 million barrels of oil production over two days in October, the highest peak shut-in of the hurricane season. However, the combined effects of Tropical Storm Marco, followed quickly by Hurricane Laura, led to 15 days of shut-ins, which more than doubled the total shut-in production from Hurricane Delta and resulted in the most shut-ins since 2008.

Colorado State University’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting forecasts that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average, compared with the 40-year average. The university estimates 8 hurricanes and 17 named storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for 2021 in May. A hurricane’s actual impact on the GOM oil and natural gas industry is challenging to determine because the hurricane path has a significant effect on the size of the impact. Hurricane paths cannot be determined until the weather pattern is established, which happens days before the hurricane hits.

To forecast hurricane outages in STEO, we use historical data to determine an average percentage of outages for the Atlantic hurricane season. Historically, most GOM shut-ins occur in October. In 2020, hurricane-related disruptions started earlier than normal with Tropical Storm Marco and Hurricane Laura in August.