雷斯塔預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將在2026年達(dá)到峰值

據(jù)世界能源新聞網(wǎng)2021年4月21日奧斯陸報(bào)道，挪威最大的獨(dú)立能源咨詢公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）4月21日在奧斯陸表示，全球電動(dòng)汽車(chē)(EV)的迅速普及可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球石油需求比此前預(yù)期提前兩年見(jiàn)頂。

Rystad稱，目前全球石油需求將在2026年見(jiàn)頂于1.016億桶/天，低于去年11月預(yù)估的2028年達(dá)到峰值1.022億桶/天。

Rystad寫(xiě)道：“運(yùn)輸和其他依賴石油的部門(mén)正在加速采用電氣化，這將比我們之前的預(yù)測(cè)更早更快地減少石油消耗?！?/span>

在2020年初COVID-19大流行爆發(fā)之前，Rystad曾預(yù)計(jì)，全球石油需求峰值將在2030年達(dá)到1.06億桶/天。

Rystad稱，除了電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的令人震驚的收購(gòu)，我們所有的假設(shè)都認(rèn)為，全球石油需求將在多個(gè)行業(yè)被逐步淘汰、替代或回收。

李峻 編譯自 世界能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Rystad: Oil Demand to Peak in 2026

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EV) around the world will probably cause global oil demand to peak two years earlier than previously expected, Norway's biggest independent energy consultancy Rystad said on Wednesday.

World demand is now seen peaking at 101.6 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2026, down from a forecast made in November of a peak in 2028 at 102.2 million bpd, Rystad Energy said.

"The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is set to chip away at oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast," Rystad wrote.

Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, Rystad had anticipated that peak oil demand would be reached in 2030 at 106 million bpd.

Aside from the staggering takeover of EVs, assumptions across all our scenarios see oil demand being either phased out, substituted, or recycled across a range of sectors, it said.