EIA：今明兩年美國(guó)天然氣消費(fèi)量將繼續(xù)下降

中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站4月19日消息 美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）預(yù)測(cè)，繼2020年天然氣消費(fèi)量下降之后，2021年和2022年美國(guó)天然氣消費(fèi)總量下降。該機(jī)構(gòu)在4月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中表示，2020年的消費(fèi)量比2019年創(chuàng)下的851億立方英尺/日的歷史高位低了19億立方英尺/日。由于COVID-19導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩以及氣溫較低的取暖需求，總消費(fèi)量下降。盡管EIA預(yù)計(jì)2021年和2022年天然氣消費(fèi)量將繼續(xù)下降，但行業(yè)天然氣消費(fèi)量的變化趨勢(shì)與2020年不同。

EIA預(yù)測(cè)，在2020年成為唯一一個(gè)增加天然氣消費(fèi)量的行業(yè)之后，電力行業(yè)將成為2021年唯一減少天然氣消費(fèi)量的行業(yè)。2019年和2020年的天然氣價(jià)格處于歷史低位，使得天然氣在發(fā)電方面比煤炭更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。然而，由于預(yù)測(cè)天然氣價(jià)格將更高，2021年和2022年將有更多的可再生能源產(chǎn)能上線，EIA預(yù)計(jì)更多的發(fā)電將來(lái)自煤炭和可再生能源，而更少的發(fā)電將來(lái)自天然氣。

從2019年到2020年，住宅和商業(yè)天然氣消費(fèi)量合計(jì)下降了21億立方英尺/日，主要原因是氣候變暖和COVID-19疫情。氣候變暖（導(dǎo)致2020年供暖度日（HDDs）比2019年減少9%）減少了對(duì)天然氣空間供暖的需求。根據(jù)國(guó)家海洋和大氣管理局的預(yù)測(cè)，EIA預(yù)計(jì)2021年HDDs將增長(zhǎng)5%，2022年將增長(zhǎng)1%。EIA還預(yù)計(jì)，2021年居民和商業(yè)天然氣消費(fèi)量將增加，2022年將略有下降。

王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

EIA: US natural gas consumption to continue decreasing in 2021, 2022

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts decreased total US natural gas consumption in 2021 and 2022 following a decline in 2020. Consumption in 2020 was 1.9 bcfd lower than the all-time high of 85.1 bcfd set in 2019, the agency said in its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Total consumption declined as a result of the economic slowdown associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and lower heating demand amid milder temperatures. Although EIA expects natural gas consumption to continue to fall in 2021 and 2022, changes in sector-level natural gas consumption show different trends than in 2020.

Electric power will be the only sector that will consume less natural gas in 2021 after being the only sector to increase its natural gas consumption in 2020, EIA forecasts. Natural gas prices in 2019 and 2020 were historically low, making natural gas more competitive with coal for generating electric power. However, because forecast natural gas prices will be higher and more renewable capacity will come online in 2021 and 2022, EIA expects more electricity generation will come from coal and renewables and less from natural gas.

Residential and commercial natural gas consumption fell by a combined 2.1 bcfd from 2019 to 2020 primarily because of warmer weather and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The warmer weather (which resulted in 9% fewer heating degree days (HDDs) in 2020 than in 2019) reduced demand for natural gas space heating. Based on forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, EIA expects HDDs will increase by 5% in 2021 and by 1% in 2022. EIA also expects residential and commercial natural gas consumption will increase in 2021 and then decrease slightly in 2022.