2021年對哥倫比亞石油工業(yè)來說又是災難性的一年

　　據(jù)今日油價4月19日報道，新冠肺炎疫情沉重地打擊了哥倫比亞經(jīng)濟，其至關重要的能源部門，受到的沖擊尤為嚴重。在實施了2020年期間世界上最長的出行限制措施之后，更是將經(jīng)濟推向崩潰的邊緣。最近新冠肺炎病例急劇增加，迫使這個安第斯國家的主要城市重新采取封鎖措施。受影響最嚴重的是熱門旅游城市麥德林和哥倫比亞最重要的港口巴蘭基利亞，目前已經(jīng)實施了嚴格的宵禁和出行限制。這些措施將影響許多經(jīng)濟部門，包括至關重要的石油工業(yè)，并嚴重影響哥倫比亞迫切需要的復蘇。

　　2020年，油價暴跌，加上疫情對能源行業(yè)的沖擊，導致哥倫比亞國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值萎縮近7%，這是哥倫比亞有記錄以來最嚴重的經(jīng)濟衰退。要知道，哥倫比亞十分依賴石油，即使在油價跌至負值、布倫特原油平均價格為41.96美元/桶的這一年，原油仍占該國財政收入的17%、出口收入的28%和GDP的3%。在2014年底油價暴跌之前，原油的經(jīng)濟重要性甚至更大。它創(chuàng)造了超過五分之一的政府收入，超過哥倫比亞出口總值的60%，幾乎占GDP的5%。在石油行業(yè)復蘇的帶動下，哥倫比亞預計將在2021年實現(xiàn)強勁的經(jīng)濟反彈，國際貨幣基金組織和中央銀行均預測其GDP增長將超過5%，但未來仍有很大的阻力。

　　最緊迫的風險是新冠肺炎病例的急劇增加，以及哥倫比亞主要城市重新實行封鎖措施，這將給本已脆弱的經(jīng)濟帶來沉重壓力。導致GDP增長速度、商業(yè)活動和稅收收入下降，給陷入財政困境的國家政府帶來更大壓力。哥倫比亞財政部在2021年3月強調(diào)了其不穩(wěn)定的財政狀況，財政赤字達到了GDP的8.6%，這是有史以來的最高水平，超過了2020年報告的7.8%，要知道，當時GDP收縮了近7%。如果經(jīng)濟要復蘇，資金短缺的哥倫比亞迫切需要通過吸引更多投資來重振能源部門。

　　盡管政府和哥倫比亞峰值工業(yè)組織哥倫比亞石油協(xié)會(ACP ）對石油工業(yè)的前景表示相當樂觀，但數(shù)據(jù)卻呈現(xiàn)出不同的畫面。2021年1月，ACP預計每年的勘探和生產(chǎn)投資為31億美元至34.5億美元。雖然較2020年增長51%，但仍比2019年的40.3億美元少5.8億美元。油氣產(chǎn)量低于需求，突顯出石油行業(yè)尚未恢復疫情爆發(fā)前的運營水平。2021年2月，哥倫比亞的石油產(chǎn)量為745769桶/天，與2020年同期相比下降了15%，令人擔憂。更令人擔憂的是，正如貝克休斯的鉆機數(shù)據(jù)所顯示的那樣，哥倫比亞油田的活動并沒有以所需的速度增長。截至2021年3月底，哥倫比亞只有14臺鉆機在作業(yè)，而去年同期為25臺，幾乎是這個數(shù)字的兩倍。

　　這些數(shù)字表明，盡管政府實施了旨在促進石油公司投資的戰(zhàn)略，包括通過退稅或取消增值稅來減輕稅收，但支出仍未達到要求的水平。不斷上升的財政壓力，加上最新一輪封鎖導致的經(jīng)濟活動下降，將迫使哥倫比亞減少支出，甚至可能減少石油行業(yè)的稅收減免和其他激勵措施。最近提出的稅制改革，該國正尋求提高相當于GDP 1.5%的稅收收入，這表明該國目前經(jīng)濟的狀態(tài)十分萎靡，并透露出自2018年以來推出的許多企業(yè)稅收優(yōu)惠可能都會被削減甚至取消的訊號。如果這種情況發(fā)生，將阻止外國石油公司在已經(jīng)動蕩和高度不確定的經(jīng)營環(huán)境中進一步投資。

　　另一個正在出現(xiàn)的不利因素是，人們越來越懷疑新的大宗商品超級周期的說法。全球新冠肺炎病例增多、新一輪封鎖以及疫苗推廣緩慢，都在給全球經(jīng)濟帶來壓力，影響到金屬和原油行業(yè)。據(jù)彭博社報道，投資者正在拋售大宗商品，尤其是金屬產(chǎn)品，而且危機已經(jīng)蔓延到原油板塊。一個月前有關布倫特原油價格將逼近每桶80美元甚至100美元的說法很是令人懷疑。在2021年剩下的時間里，油價將會波動，尤其是現(xiàn)在歐佩克和其他國家已經(jīng)表示將逐步取消減產(chǎn)，包括沙特阿拉伯每天100萬桶的額外減產(chǎn)——這促使2021年1月油價上漲。增產(chǎn)將打壓原油價格，尤其是如果美國和巴西等非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國繼續(xù)增加石油產(chǎn)量的話。布倫特原油價格走弱對哥倫比亞構成了相當大的風險，因為該國境內(nèi)的盈虧平衡價格較高，稅后價格估計高達45美元/桶。

　　值得一提的是，哥倫比亞生產(chǎn)的大部分石油都是含硫中質(zhì)或重質(zhì)原油，但自從IMO2020的引入以及全球持續(xù)大力降低燃料硫含量以來，這種原油越來越不受歡迎。南美有一些危險程度較低、保本價格較低的地區(qū)，這些地區(qū)生產(chǎn)的原油是輕質(zhì)的，這讓它們成為外國能源公司的首選目的地。從而使得哥倫比亞主要城市，特別是該國大部分油田所在的農(nóng)村地區(qū)的不安，因為這些地區(qū)對外國石油生產(chǎn)商而言，風險更大。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　2021 Will Be Another Disastrous Year For Colombia’s Oil Industry

　　The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Colombia and its economy, including the vital energy sector, particularly hard. After implementing one of the world’s longest pandemic lockdowns during 2020, which took the economy to the brink of collapse, a recent sharp spike in COVID-19 cases has forced the reintroduction of lockdown measures across the Andean country’s major cities. It is the popular tourist city of Medellin and Colombia’s all-important principal port Barranquilla which are the worst affected, with strict curfews and restrictions on movement now established. Those measures will impact many sectors of the economy including the vital petroleum industry and weigh heavily on Colombia’s desperately required recovery. During 2020, the oil price crash and COVID-19 pandemic sharply impacted the Andean country’s energy sector causing the gross domestic product to contract by almost (Spanish) 7%, Colombia’s worst economic decline on record. The strife-torn country’s dependence on crude oil becomes apparent when, even in a year where prices plunged into negative territory and Brent averaged $41.96 per barrel, it still accounted for 17% of fiscal revenue, 28% of export earnings, and 3% of GDP. Before the late-2014 oil price collapse, the economic importance of crude oil was even greater. It generated over a fifth of government revenue, more than 60% of Colombia’s exports by value, and almost 5% of GDP. While a strong economic rebound for Colombia is projected for 2021, led by a recovering petroleum industry, with the IMF and central bank both forecasting GDP growth of over 5%, there are significant headwinds ahead.

　　The most pressing risk is the sharp uptick in COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns in Colombia’s major cities, which will weigh heavily on an already fragile economy. These will cause GDP growth, business activity, and tax revenue to decline placing greater pressure on a fiscally embattled national government. Bogota’s precarious finances are highlighted by Colombia’s finance ministry, in March 2021, raising the fiscal deficit to a startling 8.6% of GDP, its highest level ever and greater than the 7.8% deficit reported for 2020 when GDP contracted by nearly 7%. A cash-strapped Bogota urgently needs to reactivate the energy sector, by attracting additional investment, if the economy is to recover.

　　While the Duque administration and Colombia’s peak industry body the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP – Spanish initials) expressed considerable optimism regarding the petroleum industry’s outlook the numbers present a different picture. In January 2021, the ACP projected an annual exploration and production investment of $3.1 billion to $3.45 billion. While at the bottom end that represents a 51% increase over 2020, it is still at least $580 million shy of the $4.03 billion invested during 2019. Weaker than required hydrocarbon production highlights that the oil industry has yet to return to pre-pandemic operations. For February 2021, Colombia pumped 745,769 barrels per day, a worrying 15% decrease compared to the equivalent period for 2020, and similarly reported production volumes since the pandemic hit the Andean country. More worrying is that activity in Colombia’s oil patch, as shown by the Baker Hughes rig count, is not rising at the rate required. By the end of March 2021, there were only 14 drill rigs operating in Colombia compared to almost double that number, 25 drill rigs, for the same period a year earlier.

　　Those numbers indicate that despite the Duque Administration implementing strategies aimed at boosting oil company investment, including tax relief through refunding or removing value-added tax, spending is falling short of the required levels. Rising fiscal pressures, combined with the declining economic activity caused by the latest round of lockdowns, will force Bogota to ease spending and potentially even the tax breaks and other incentives extended to the petroleum industry. Recently proposed tax reform, where the Duque administration is seeking to raise taxation revenue equivalent to 1.5% of GDP not only illustrates Bogota’s desperation but that many of the corporate tax benefits introduced since 2018 could be reduced or even removed. If that occurs it will deter further investment from foreign oil companies in what is already a volatile and highly uncertain operating environment.

　　Another emerging headwind is the growing skepticism over claims of a new commodity supercycle. Rising COVID-19 cases and renewed lockdowns around the world along with sluggish vaccine rollouts are weighing on the global economic outlook impacting metals and crude oil. According to Bloomberg, investors are dumping commodities, notably metals, and the contagion has spread to crude oil, making proclamations from a month ago that Brent is headed to $80 or even $100 a barrel appearing doubtful. Oil prices will be volatile over the remainder of 2021, especially now that OPEC Plus countries have flagged the gradual unwinding of production cuts, including Saudi Arabia’s one million barrels per day, which triggered the January 2021 oil price rally. That will weigh on crude oil prices, particularly if major no-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Brazil continue to bolster petroleum production. Weaker Brent pricing poses a considerable risk for Colombia because of its high onshore breakeven prices, which are estimated to be up to $45 per barrel after tax. Most of the petroleum produced in Colombia is comprised of sour medium to heavy grade crude oils, which are becoming increasingly less popular since the introduction of IMO2020 and the ongoing global push to substantially reduce the sulfur content of fuels. There are less hazardous jurisdictions with significantly lower breakeven prices in South America, which produce lighter sweeter grades of crude oil, making them superior destinations for foreign energy companies. Heightened insecurity in major cities and particularly the rural regions where much of Colombia’s oilfields are located poses a significant risk for foreign oil producers.