高盛預(yù)計(jì)運(yùn)輸燃料需求將在2026年達(dá)到峰值

　　據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社2021年4月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，高盛集團(tuán)日前也加入了呼吁全球石油需求盡早見(jiàn)頂?shù)念A(yù)測(cè)者的行列。

　　這家國(guó)際領(lǐng)先的投資銀行將運(yùn)輸部門(mén)的燃油需求峰值預(yù)測(cè)提前一年至2026年(如果不是更早的話(huà))，主要原因是因?yàn)殡妱?dòng)汽車(chē)的加速采用。由于航空燃料和石化產(chǎn)品的緣故，本世紀(jì)初的原油總消費(fèi)量將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，但到2025年以后，原油消費(fèi)量將以“乏力”的速度增長(zhǎng)。

　　高盛集團(tuán)是最新一家重新評(píng)估石油需求增長(zhǎng)終結(jié)的公司。其中最激進(jìn)的呼聲來(lái)自英國(guó)石油公司(BP )。BP去年說(shuō)，全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)代可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束，而國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的觀(guān)點(diǎn)則比BP更為保守，認(rèn)為全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)將在2030年左右進(jìn)入平穩(wěn)期。

　　最近，伍德麥肯茲警告稱(chēng)，石油公司如果沒(méi)有為加速的能源轉(zhuǎn)型做好準(zhǔn)備，將面臨“嚴(yán)重”風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果各國(guó)政府按照《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》積極削減溫室氣體排放，全球石油消費(fèi)量最早將在2023年開(kāi)始下降

　　包括Nikhil Bhandari和Damien Courvalin在內(nèi)的高盛集團(tuán)分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示，“推動(dòng)能效提高和減排的政府政策對(duì)道路運(yùn)輸燃料需求的影響最大?！薄霸诮?jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)(尤其是在新興市場(chǎng))的推動(dòng)下，石化產(chǎn)品將成為石油需求的新的基本負(fù)荷。”

　　李峻 編譯自 彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman projects transportation fuel demand will peak in 2026

　　Add Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to the list of forecasters calling for oil demand to peak sooner rather than later.

　　The bank brought forward its forecast for peak oil demand in the transportation sector by one year to 2026, if not sooner, largely due to the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles. Overall crude consumption will keep expanding this decade due to jet fuel and petrochemicals, but growth will be at an “anemic” pace past 2025.

　　Goldman is the latest to reevaluate what the end of demand growth will look like for oil. Among the most aggressive calls is that from BP Plc, which said last year that the era of oil demand growth may already be over, while the International Energy Agency has taken a more conservative view than BP, seeing demand plateau from around 2030.

　　Most recently, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. warned of the “severe” risks for oil companies not preparing for an accelerated energy transition. If governments move aggressively to cut greenhouse emissions in line with the Paris Climate Accord, oil consumption would start to decline as early as 2023

　　“Government policies driving higher efficiency gains and lower emissions have had the strongest bearing on road transport demand,” Goldman analysts including Nikhil Bhandari and Damien Courvalin said in a report. “Petrochemicals will become the new baseload for oil demand, driven by economic growth and rising consumption, especially in emerging markets.”