錢尼爾：全球LNG需求可能在2040年后下降

　　據(jù)天然氣新聞2021年4月9日休斯敦報道，,美國最大的液化天然氣（LNG）出口商錢尼爾能源公司4月9日表示，全球LNG需求預(yù)計將在2040年前增加，但由于全球繼續(xù)采取行動減少溫室氣體排放，全球LNG需求預(yù)計將在2024年以后出現(xiàn)下降，這將給美國現(xiàn)有的液化終端運營商和項目開發(fā)商帶來風(fēng)險。

　　這些結(jié)論是在一份評估全球正在進(jìn)行或正在審議的減緩氣候變化政策和趨勢的長期影響的報告中得出的。

　　北美LNG出口商正面臨要求他們證明從頁巖氣中生產(chǎn)的LNG能夠推動能源轉(zhuǎn)型，更多地使用更清潔的燃料，并幫助(而非阻礙)買家實現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo)的壓力。與此同時，他們必須解決未來化石燃料需求下降將如何影響其增長目標(biāo)的問題。一些開發(fā)商不得不推遲或取消新項目。

　　錢尼爾能源公司在報告中表示，“通過保持嚴(yán)格的資本投資和回報戰(zhàn)略，與預(yù)期的市場趨勢相一致，錢尼爾能源公司可以將2040年以后需求高峰對其業(yè)務(wù)的風(fēng)險降到最低?！?/span>

　　錢尼爾能源公司的分析基于三種情景。國際能源署（IEA）發(fā)布的第一種情景考慮了現(xiàn)有的政策框架和已宣布的政策意圖，包括巴黎協(xié)定，并反映了這些框架對能源部門到2040年的潛在影響。第二種情景也由國際能源署發(fā)布，涉及更廣泛的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。第三種情景是麥肯錫咨詢公司發(fā)布的《2050年全球天然氣展望》的一部分。

　　此外，錢尼爾能源公司還根據(jù)預(yù)計的供應(yīng)、需求、成本和碳定價對LNG項目進(jìn)行了成本曲線分析。

　　報告稱，在這三種情景下，全球?qū)NG的需求將從2020年的水平增加到2040年，這將導(dǎo)致不同程度的供應(yīng)缺口?！俺爽F(xiàn)有的和在建的LNG項目外，還需要額外的LNG供應(yīng)來滿足這一需求?！?/span>

　　報告補充稱，“繼續(xù)采取行動減少全球溫室氣體排放，可能會導(dǎo)致全球LNG需求在2040年以后下降。”

　　錢尼爾能源公司希望在今年年底之前從其第9條和至今為止的最后一條液化生產(chǎn)線開始生產(chǎn)LNG。

　　錢尼爾能源公司還提議在其德克薩斯工廠進(jìn)行高達(dá)1000萬噸/年的中等規(guī)模生產(chǎn)線擴建。然而，該公司尚未做出最終投資決定。錢尼爾能源公司根據(jù)市場和氣候變化影響的考慮，對其增長計劃采取了審慎的方式。去年12月，錢尼爾能源公司首席執(zhí)行官杰克·弗斯科在一次采訪中表示，這個項目“時間合適就會立馬啟動”。

　　作為美國最大的LNG出口商，錢尼爾能源公司是其在液化過程中使用的物理氣體的主要買家。從美國墨西哥灣沿岸到加拿大東北部，再到加拿大西部，大部分天然氣都產(chǎn)自頁巖盆地。

　　今年2月，錢尼爾能源公司表示，該公司將向其LNG客戶提供其在美國兩個出口終端生產(chǎn)的每批LNG貨物相關(guān)的排放數(shù)據(jù)，以使其環(huán)境足跡更加透明。

　　排放目標(biāo)

　　由于有嚴(yán)格的碳排放目標(biāo)，歐洲公用事業(yè)公司正面臨壓力，不愿簽署進(jìn)口美國頁巖氣的新協(xié)議。法國Engie在2020年11月表示，該公司已停止與美國NextDecade公司就一項LNG供應(yīng)協(xié)議的談判。

　　在其題為《氣候情景分析：過渡性風(fēng)險》的新報告中，錢尼爾能源公司表示，無論其考慮的情景或其他市場因素的影響如何，其全服務(wù)商業(yè)模式都將具有彈性。

　　報告稱，“市場將如何發(fā)展的不確定性，以及成本競爭力的持續(xù)重要性，強化了以自律方式配置資本的重要性。”

　　報告說，“對能源政策、市場趨勢和LNG商業(yè)周期的持續(xù)監(jiān)測將繼續(xù)對商業(yè)決策起到重要作用。雖然成本是最主要的，但商業(yè)創(chuàng)新、靈活性和非經(jīng)濟因素，如聲譽和可靠性，將是競爭激烈的全球市場中有價值的區(qū)分因素?！?/span>

　　李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞

　　原文如下：

　　LNG demand may fall post 2040 due to global GHG emissions policies: Cheniere

　　Cheniere Energy expects LNG demand to increase until 2040, though it may decline beyond that due to continued global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, presenting risks for existing US liquefaction terminal operators and project developers, the company said April 9.

　　The conclusions were issued in a report assessing the long-term impact of climate change mitigation policies and trends that are in process or under consideration globally.

　　North American exporters are under pressure to show that LNG produced from shale gas can bridge the energy transition to greater use of cleaner-burning fuels and aid rather than impede buyers' carbon reduction goals. At the same time, they must address how a future of lower demand for fossil fuels will impact their growth goals. Some developers have delayed or canceled new projects.

　　"Cheniere can minimize the risk beyond 2040 to its business from peak demand by maintaining a disciplined capital investment and return strategy, consistent with expected market trends," the company said in the report.

　　Cheniere's analysis relied on three scenarios. One produced by the International Energy Agency accounts for existing policy frameworks and announced policy intentions, including the Paris Agreement, and reflects the potential impact of these on the energy sector out to 2040. The second, also published by the IEA, involves sustainable development more generally. The third, by consulting firm McKinsey, is part of its global gas outlook to 2050.

　　In addition, Cheniere incorporated cost-curve analysis of LNG projects based on projected supply, demand, costs and carbon pricing.

　　"Under all three scenarios, demand for LNG increases from 2020 levels through 2040, resulting in supply gaps to varying degrees," the report said. "Additional LNG supply, i.e., beyond existing and under construction liquefaction projects, would be needed to meet this demand."

　　The report added that "continued action to reduce global GHG emissions may cause LNG demand to decline beyond 2040."

　　Cheniere hopes to be producing LNG from its ninth and, for now, final liquefaction train by the end of this year.

　　The company has also proposed an up to 10 million mt/year mid-scale train expansion at its Texas facility. It has yet to make a final investment decision, however, as it takes a measured approach to its growth plans in light of market and climate change impact considerations. In December, CEO Jack Fusco said in an interview that the project "will happen when it happens."

　　As the biggest US LNG exporter, Cheniere is a major buyer of physical gas that it uses in the liquefaction process. Much of the gas is drilled in shale basins stretching from the US Gulf Coast to the Northeast to Western Canada.

　　In February, Cheniere said it would give its LNG customers emissions data associated with each cargo it produces at its two US export terminals, in a bid to make its environmental footprint more transparent.

　　Emissions goals

　　With strict carbon emissions goals, European utilities are being pressured to shy away from signing new deals for importing US shale gas. France's Engie said in November 2020 that it had halted talks with NextDecade about a supply deal tied to the developer's proposed Rio Grande LNG facility in Texas.

　　In its new report, titled "Climate Scenario Analysis: Transitional Risk," Cheniere said it believes its full-service business model will be resilient regardless of the impact of the scenarios it considered, or other market factors.

　　"The uncertainty in how the market will evolve and the continued importance of cost competitiveness reinforce the importance of a disciplined approach to deploying capital," the report said.

　　"Ongoing monitoring of energy policies, market trends and the LNG business cycle will continue to be important to inform business decisions. While cost is paramount, commercial innovation, flexibility and non-economic factors, such as reputation and reliability, will be valuable differentiators in a competitive global market."