隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇 美國(guó)對(duì)石油產(chǎn)品需求有望增長(zhǎng)

　　據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站4月12日莫斯科報(bào)道，根據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)信息顯示，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA) 4月份的《短期能源展望(STEO)》預(yù)計(jì)，疫苗接種和財(cái)政刺激將支持美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)復(fù)蘇，并推動(dòng)美國(guó)對(duì)石油產(chǎn)品的需求增長(zhǎng)。

　　預(yù)計(jì)汽油和餾分油的消耗量將比去年夏天有所增加，但仍低于2019年。

　　隨著疫情的一些經(jīng)濟(jì)和行為影響在明年消退，我們預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)對(duì)運(yùn)輸燃料的需求將增加。我們預(yù)測(cè)，2021年的汽油消費(fèi)量將在8月份達(dá)到峰值，達(dá)到910萬桶/天，高于我們?cè)?020年8月看到的850萬桶/天，但低于2019年8月的980萬桶/天。2021年夏季的汽油日均消費(fèi)量將為880萬桶，較2020年夏季增加100萬桶(增幅13%)，但比2019年夏季減少70萬桶(降幅7%)。

　　據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2021年夏季，美國(guó)普通級(jí)汽油零售均價(jià)為每加侖2.78美元，比去年夏季的每加侖2.06美元高出72美分。與去年夏天相比，今年夏天全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)將大幅增加的預(yù)測(cè)，導(dǎo)致原油價(jià)格上漲，而原油價(jià)格是美國(guó)汽油價(jià)格的最大決定因素。

　　應(yīng)對(duì)疫情的措施對(duì)美國(guó)柴油需求的影響沒有對(duì)汽油需求的影響大。我們預(yù)測(cè)，今年夏天包括柴油和取暖油在內(nèi)的餾分燃料的日均消費(fèi)量為400萬桶，比去年夏天增長(zhǎng)11%（即40萬桶/天），當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)的餾分燃料消費(fèi)水平達(dá)到自2009年以來夏季的最低點(diǎn)。然而，預(yù)計(jì)餾分油消費(fèi)量將接近2019年的水平（下降不到1%）。

　　正如MRC之前所寫，美國(guó)汽油銷售在因新冠病毒引起的待在家的要求首次出現(xiàn)大幅下降一周年之際首次實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長(zhǎng)。然而，根據(jù)IHS Markit的石油價(jià)格信息服務(wù)（OPIS）的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，需求仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于疫情前的水平。

　　郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

　　原文如下：

　　Demand for petroleum products expected to grow in the USA on continuing economic recovery

　　The EIA’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects vaccinations and fiscal stimulus to support continuing economic recovery and drive demand growth for petroleum products in the United States, reported Hydrocarbonprocessing.

　　Gasoline and distillate fuel consumption is expected to increase from last summer, but remain less than in 2019.

　　As some of the economic and behavioral effects of COVID-19 subside over the next year, we forecast that US demand for transportation fuels will increase. We forecast that gasoline consumption in 2021 will peak in August at 9.1 million barrels per day (b/d), more than the 8.5 million b/d we saw in August 2020 but less than the 9.8 million b/d in August 2019. We forecast that gasoline consumption during the summer of 2021 will average 8.8 million b/d, a 1.0 million b/d (13%) increase from summer 2020 but a 0.7 million b/d (7%) decrease from 2019.

　　The retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States is forecast to average USD2.78 per gallon (gal) during summer 2021, 72 cents/gal more than last summer’s average of USD2.06/gal. The forecast of significantly more global economic activity this summer compared with last summer contributes to higher crude oil prices, which are the largest determining factor in US gasoline prices.

　　The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has not affected US diesel fuel demand as much as it has affected gasoline demand. We forecast that consumption of distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, will average 4.0 million b/d this summer, an 11% increase (400,000 b/d) from last summer when distillate consumption levels reached their lowest point for the summer in the United States since 2009. However, distillate consumption is expected to be nearly equal to 2019 levels (down less than 1%).

　　As MRC wrote before, gasoline sales in the United States have moved year on year into positive territory for the first time - on the one-year anniversary of the first major declines that resulted from COVID-induced stay at home orders. However, demand still trails pre-pandemic levels by a considerable margin, according to the latest data from Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) by IHS Markit.