今年全球石油和液體燃料日均消耗將達(dá)9770萬(wàn)桶

據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)4月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）公布的《4月短期能源展望（STEO）》仍面臨更大程度的不確定性，因?yàn)閷?duì)新冠疫情的反應(yīng)仍在不斷變化。與新冠疫情相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)減少，在過(guò)去一年造成了能源需求和供應(yīng)的變化，并將在未來(lái)繼續(xù)影響這些模式。與2019年相比，美國(guó)2020年的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)下降了3.5%。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，2021年上半年全球石油庫(kù)存將減少180萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2021年下半年，全球石油供應(yīng)的增長(zhǎng)將有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)的基本平衡。然而，這一預(yù)測(cè)在很大程度上取決于歐佩克+未來(lái)的產(chǎn)量決定、美國(guó)致密油產(chǎn)量對(duì)油價(jià)的反應(yīng)能力、石油需求增長(zhǎng)速度等因素。

據(jù)EIA估計(jì)，今年3月，全球石油和液體燃料日消耗量為9600萬(wàn)桶，較2020年3月增加470萬(wàn)桶。EIA表示，我們預(yù)測(cè)，2021年全年全球石油和液體燃料的日均消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到9770萬(wàn)桶，較2020年增加550萬(wàn)桶。我們預(yù)測(cè)，2022年日消費(fèi)量將增加370萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到日均1.013億桶。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將從2021年第一季度的日均2510萬(wàn)桶上升至第二季度的2580萬(wàn)桶。此次增產(chǎn)是由于4月1日歐佩克+宣布將在5月份開(kāi)始提高產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)。這也反映出沙特阿拉伯將取消5-7月期間100萬(wàn)桶/日的自愿減產(chǎn)。我們預(yù)計(jì)，2021年下半年，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將增至2790萬(wàn)桶/日。

根據(jù)EIA的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2021年1月美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)原油日均產(chǎn)量為1110萬(wàn)桶。據(jù)EIA的分析師估計(jì)，2月份美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)原油日產(chǎn)量下降80萬(wàn)桶，主要原因是低溫影響了美國(guó)大部分地區(qū)，特別是德克薩斯州。我們預(yù)測(cè)，2021年第二季度的原油日均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1090萬(wàn)桶，到2021年第四季度將增至1140萬(wàn)桶。預(yù)計(jì)到2022年，美國(guó)原油日均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1190萬(wàn)桶。美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量上升的預(yù)測(cè)是由于我們預(yù)計(jì)在預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格將保持在55美元/桶以上。

據(jù)研究顯示，2021年美國(guó)天然氣日均消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到829億立方英尺，比2020年下降0.4%。美國(guó)天然氣消費(fèi)量的下降是由于天然氣價(jià)格高于去年，因此用于發(fā)電的天然氣消費(fèi)量減少。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

GLOBAL OIL CONSUMPTION WILL AVERAGE 97.7 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2021

The April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply during the past year and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels.

EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by 1.8 million b/d in the first half of 2021. Forecast increases in global oil supply will contribute to a mostly balanced market during the second half of 2021. However, the forecast depends heavily on future production decisions by OPEC+, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to oil prices, and the pace of oil demand growth, among other factors.

EIA estimates that the world consumed 96.0 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels in March, an increase of 4.7 million b/d from March 2020. “We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is up by 5.5 million b/d from 2020. We forecast that consumption will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d” the EIA said

EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will rise from an average of 25.1 million b/d in the first quarter of 2021 to 25.8 million b/d in the second quarter. The increase is the result of the April 1 OPEC+ announcement to begin raising production targets in May. It also reflects Saudi Arabia unwinding voluntary cuts of 1.0 million b/d between May and July. We expect OPEC crude oil production will rise to almost 27.9 million b/d in the second half of 2021.

According to EIA’s most recent data, U.S. domestic crude oil production averaged 11.1 million b/d in January 2021. The EIA’s analysts estimate that U.S. domestic crude oil production declined by 0.8 million b/d in February, mostly because of cold temperatures that affected much of the country, particularly Texas. We forecast crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in the second quarter of 2021 and increase to almost 11.4 million b/d by the fourth quarter of 2021. It is expected that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million b/d in 2022. The forecast of rising U.S. crude oil production is the result of our expectation that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will remain above $55/b through the forecast period.

According to the study, U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 0.4% from 2020. The decline in U.S. natural gas consumption is a result of less natural gas consumed for electric power generation because of higher natural gas prices compared with last year.