到2050年綠色氫的成本預(yù)計(jì)將低于天然氣

據(jù)彭博社4月8日新聞消息稱，據(jù)彭博社周三發(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告，利用可再生能源生產(chǎn)的“綠色氫”的成本將很快大幅下降，在許多領(lǐng)域?qū)⒆兊帽忍烊粴飧阋恕?/span>

氫被認(rèn)為是開發(fā)可持續(xù)能源和減少碳排放的領(lǐng)先者。

但它的生產(chǎn)成本很高，所需的電力會(huì)產(chǎn)生大量的二氧化碳或其他污染物。

綠色氫是通過電解產(chǎn)生的——電流通過水，由風(fēng)力、太陽能或水力發(fā)電提供電力。

彭博社研究人員預(yù)測，其成本將在未來穩(wěn)定下降，這在很大程度上歸因于太陽能光伏發(fā)電（PV）價(jià)格的降低。

BNEF專家在一份報(bào)告中表示:“我們現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為，到2050年，光伏發(fā)電的成本將比我們兩年前認(rèn)為的低40%?！?/span>

他們總結(jié)說:“從今天到2050年，用可再生電力生產(chǎn)‘綠色’氫的成本最多將下降85%?！?/span>

在這項(xiàng)研究涵蓋的28個(gè)市場中，到2050年，綠色氫生產(chǎn)每公斤的成本可能低于1美元。

到2030年，綠色氫的成本預(yù)計(jì)將低于“藍(lán)色氫”?！八{(lán)色氫”由化石燃料發(fā)電，并通過捕獲溫室氣體排放的過程生產(chǎn)。

預(yù)計(jì)到2050年，它的成本將低于甚至更臟的“灰色氫”，后者沒有這個(gè)過程。BNEF氫分析師Martin Tengler說：“如此低的可再生氫成本可能會(huì)完全改寫能源版圖，”。

他補(bǔ)充說，在未來，“至少33%的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將由清潔能源提供動(dòng)力，其成本不會(huì)比化石燃料高出一分錢”。

然而，Tengler承認(rèn)，要實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，“這項(xiàng)技術(shù)將需要政府的持續(xù)支持?！比藗儗?duì)氫技術(shù)感興趣的一個(gè)原因是，當(dāng)氫技術(shù)用于發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)燃料時(shí)，唯一的排放物是水蒸氣。

因此，人們對(duì)它能夠幫助清潔重工業(yè)和交通運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)生了希望。然而，目前這一過程需要使用煤炭或天然氣產(chǎn)生大量能源。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

'Green hydrogen' forecast to cost less than natural gas by 2050

"Green hydrogen" produced using renewable energy will soon plunge in cost, becoming cheaper than natural gas in many areas, according to a study released Wednesday by the research group BloombergNEF.

Hydrogen is considered a leader in the race to develop sustainable energy sources and slash carbon emissions.

But it is expensive to produce and the electricity needed generates a lot of carbon dioxide emissions or other pollutants.

Green hydrogen is produced via electrolysis -- an electrical current passing through water -- with wind, solar or hydroelectric power providing the electricity.

BloombergNEF (BNEF) researchers forecast its cost will fall steadily in the future, in large part due to lower prices for solar photovoltaic power (PV).

"We now think that PV electricity will be 40 percent cheaper in 2050 than what we had thought just two years ago," BNEF specialists said in a report.

"The costs of producing 'green' hydrogen from renewable electricity should fall by up to 85 percent from today to 2050," they concluded.

In the majority of 28 markets covered by the study, green hydrogen production could cost less than one US dollar per kilogramme by 2050.

By just 2030, green hydrogen was projected to cost less than "blue hydrogen," which is produced with electricity generated by fossil fuels using a process that captures greenhouse gas emissions.

It is expected to cost less than even dirtier "grey hydrogen", which lacks that process, by 2050. "Such low renewable hydrogen costs could completely rewrite the energy map," BNEF hydrogen analyst Martin Tengler said.

In the future, "at least 33 percent of the world economy could be powered by clean energy for not a cent more than it pays for fossil fuels", he added.

For that to happen however, "the technology will require continued government support," Tengler acknowledged. One reason for strong interest in hydrogen technology is that when it is used to fuel motors, the only emission is water vapour.

It has therefore raised hopes that it could help clean up heavy industry and transportation. However at present the process requires large amounts of energy generated using coal or natural gas.