市場(chǎng)對(duì)石油需求復(fù)蘇的樂(lè)觀情緒持續(xù)升溫

據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，歐佩克+預(yù)計(jì)，隨著成員國(guó)們準(zhǔn)備增產(chǎn)，未來(lái)幾個(gè)月石油需求將大幅增加。歐佩克、俄羅斯及其盟友計(jì)劃最早在今年7月前將石油日產(chǎn)量增加210萬(wàn)桶，這表明他們對(duì)市場(chǎng)反彈抱有信心。從現(xiàn)在到7月份，歐佩克+每月700萬(wàn)的減產(chǎn)規(guī)模將大大減少。

預(yù)計(jì)沙特阿拉伯也將減少其自愿減產(chǎn)的規(guī)模，到7月將增加100萬(wàn)桶的日產(chǎn)量。

在歐洲和拉丁美洲部分地區(qū)進(jìn)入第三波新冠肺炎疫情之際，石油行業(yè)再次受到疫情的影響，從而不斷加大限制措施，因此，這一放松產(chǎn)量限制的決定出人意料。

由于歐洲繼續(xù)延長(zhǎng)封鎖措施，油價(jià)已跌至近兩周以來(lái)的最低水平，這讓市場(chǎng)對(duì)未來(lái)的需求趨勢(shì)感到不確定。紐約期貨周一下跌4.6%，從4月1日的每桶64.86美元跌至每桶62.15美元，令油價(jià)跌破美國(guó)原油50日均線。

歐佩克希望，隨著產(chǎn)量的增加，依靠國(guó)際市場(chǎng)在夏季前消化更多的原油產(chǎn)量，油價(jià)仍將總體上保持在高位。然而，這將受到旅行限制、企業(yè)關(guān)閉和在家辦公的規(guī)定的影響。

不過(guò)，對(duì)疫苗推廣的樂(lè)觀情緒仍在繼續(xù)，因?yàn)橛?guó)已經(jīng)為將近一半的人接種了疫苗，而美國(guó)為超過(guò)30%的人接種了疫苗。盡管歐洲和北美其他地區(qū)的疫苗接種速度較慢，但許多國(guó)家仍有希望在2021年底之前迎頭趕上。

全球最大的獨(dú)立石油交易商維托爾(Vitol)本周表示，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)10年石油需求將會(huì)增加，但它警告稱，航空燃油的回收將會(huì)放緩。雖然某些石油行業(yè)仍將停滯不前，但其他行業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)，包括用于制造業(yè)的輕質(zhì)終端。

歐佩克+正越來(lái)越多地關(guān)注印度及其煉油商，因?yàn)樯程匕⒗Ｍc印度這個(gè)全球增長(zhǎng)最快的下游油品銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)之一建立戰(zhàn)略關(guān)系。目前，阿拉伯海灣國(guó)家占印度能源進(jìn)口總額的20%左右，主要是石油和天然氣。

盡管疫情繼續(xù)阻礙石油需求，但圍繞疫苗推出的樂(lè)觀情緒以及新興市場(chǎng)需求的增加，使得歐佩克+增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃將受到熱情的響應(yīng)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Optimism Grows Over Oil Demand Recovery

OPEC and partners are betting on a significant boost in oil demand over the coming months as member states get ready to ramp up oil production. OPEC, Russia, and their allies are planning to increase oil production by 2.1 million bpd by as early as July this year, suggesting the confidence they have in a market rebound. The organization’s output cuts of 7 million will be eased significantly each month between now and July.

Saudi Arabia is also expected to ease its voluntary output cuts to increase production by 1 million bpd by July.

The announcement to ease restrictions comes unexpectedly as the oil industry is once again suffering from increased Covid-19 restrictions as Europe and parts of Latin America go into a third wave of the pandemic.

Oil prices have dropped to the lowest in almost two weeks as European lockdown measures continue to be extended, leaving the market unsure of upcoming demand trends. Futures in New York fell 4.6 percent on Monday, from $64.86 a barrel on April 1 to $62.15, which decreased oil prices to below the U.S. crude’s 50-day moving average.

OPEC will be hoping that prices remain generally high as production increases, relying on the international market to soak up the higher crude production by the summer months. However, it will be battling with restrictions on travel, closed businesses, and the new working-from-home norm.

However, optimism around the vaccine rollout continues, as the U.K. has given the first vaccine to almost half of the population, and the U.S. to over 30 percent of the population. While vaccination programs in the rest of Europe and North America are moving at a slower rate, there is still hope that many countries will catch up by late 2021.

Vitol, the world's biggest independent oil trader, stated this week that it expects oil demand to increase over the next decade but warns jet fuel recovery will be slower. While certain oil sectors will remain stagnant, others are expected to increase, including light ends used in manufacturing.

While Covid-19 restrictions continue to hamper oil demand, optimism around the vaccine rollout as well as increased demand from emerging markets suggests OPEC’s plan to ramp up production will be met with enthusiasm.