EIA對石油需求增長日益樂觀

據(jù)今日油價4月8日報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)本周在其短期能源展望中稱，今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)走強(qiáng)將加速石油需求增長幅度將加快至每日550萬桶，并將需求增長預(yù)期上調(diào)20萬桶/天。

EIA預(yù)計，2021年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)計為6.2%，比3月份的預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)高出0.4個百分點。

2022年，全球石油需求將再增加370萬桶/天，并回到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。EIA的最新估計顯示，到2022年，全球平均石油消費量將達(dá)到1.013億桶/天。

2021年全球石油需求增長幅度提高了20萬桶/天，而2022年的增長幅度預(yù)期較3月的預(yù)估下調(diào)了10萬桶/天，3月份EIA預(yù)計石油需求增長幅度為530萬桶/天，2022年為380萬桶/天。

EIA對全球石油需求增長的預(yù)期略比歐佩克保守。美國政府最新向上修正的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年的需求增長仍低于歐佩克的估計。歐佩克在3月份的月度石油市場報告中預(yù)計，今年的需求增長幅度為每日590萬桶。歐佩克4月的月度報告將于4月13日公布。在3月份的報告中，歐佩克提高了2021年下半年的需求預(yù)期。盡管如此，由于歐洲主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的長期封鎖和美國的高失業(yè)率減緩了經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，該機(jī)構(gòu)下調(diào)了對2021年上半年石油需求的預(yù)期。

據(jù)報道，上周歐佩克聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會(JTC)將2021年的需求增幅預(yù)期下調(diào)至560萬桶/天。然而，歐佩克+表示，今年晚些時候需求信心強(qiáng)勁反彈，并決定在7月前恢復(fù)約200萬桶/天的減產(chǎn)，同時，沙特將取消100萬桶/天的額外減產(chǎn)。

目前，石油市場和所有預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)面臨的關(guān)鍵問題是，下半年石油需求強(qiáng)勁增長的預(yù)期能否實現(xiàn)。當(dāng)然，關(guān)鍵是疫情情況下，主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體在經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁增長的情況下取消封鎖限制的能力。美國和中國的跡象表明經(jīng)濟(jì)增長強(qiáng)勁。許多國家的寬松貨幣政策也將繼續(xù)支持經(jīng)濟(jì)活動，并支持石油需求增長。疫苗接種計劃的進(jìn)展將使更多的人開始旅行，包括乘坐國際航線，這不僅會刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，也會刺激受疫情嚴(yán)重打擊的航空燃料需求。

盡管復(fù)蘇步伐仍存在不確定性，但多數(shù)分析師仍預(yù)計2021年下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)將出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長，這反過來又將提振石油需求。EIA預(yù)計，到2021年下半年，全球石油市場將“變得更加平衡”。

EIA表示，2021年下半年，全球石油供應(yīng)的增長預(yù)計將有助于實現(xiàn)市場的基本平衡。然而，這一預(yù)測在很大程度上取決于歐佩克+未來的生產(chǎn)決定、美國致密油生產(chǎn)對油價的反應(yīng)能力、以及石油需求增長的速度等等。

EIA估計，美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量將在2021年第二季度至第四季度之間增加，以應(yīng)對油價上漲。然而，與3月份的預(yù)測相比，2021年和2022年美國原油平均產(chǎn)量分別減少了約10萬桶/天和16萬桶/天。

最新預(yù)測顯示，美國今年的平均石油日產(chǎn)量將為1104萬桶，低于上月估計的1110萬桶。根據(jù)4月份的估計，2022年的平均產(chǎn)量將為1190萬桶/天，低于3月份預(yù)計的1200萬桶/天。然而，由于預(yù)期油價上漲，EIA已于3月已將其對2022年石油日產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測上調(diào)至多50萬桶/天。

EIA稱，今年，由于預(yù)期WTI原油價格將維持在每桶55美元上方，美國原油產(chǎn)量將從第二季的平均1090萬桶/天增加至第四季的近1140萬桶/天。明年第四季，美國平均石油產(chǎn)量將高于1200萬桶/天，至1218萬桶/天。

盡管美國主要石油生產(chǎn)商的支出受到嚴(yán)格控制，但油價上漲將使頁巖行業(yè)重回增長軌道，即使這一增長速度比疫情爆發(fā)前要慢。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

EIA Increasingly Optimistic About Oil Demand Growth

A stronger global economy this year is set to accelerate oil demand growth to 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook for April this week, raising its demand growth forecast by 200,000 bpd.

Global economic growth is now expected at 6.2 percent in 2021, up by 0.4 percentage point from the March STEO, as per estimates from Oxford Economics which the EIA uses for prediction modeling.

Next year, global oil demand is set to rise by another 3.7 million bpd over 2021 and exceed the pre-pandemic levels from 2019. World consumption of petroleum is set to average 101.3 million bpd in 2022, EIA's latest estimates show.

The 2021 global oil demand growth was lifted by 200,000 bpd, while the 2022 growth estimate was revised down by 100,000 bpd from the March forecasts, which had pegged demand growth at 5.3 million bpd this year and 3.8 million bpd in 2022.

The EIA has slightly more conservative estimates about global oil demand growth than OPEC. The latest upward revision from the American administration puts this year's demand growth still below OPEC's estimate, which had it at 5.9 million bpd in its March Monthly Oil Market Report. OPEC's April monthly report is due out next Tuesday, April 13. In the March report, OPEC raised its outlook for the second half of 2021. Still, it revised down its estimates for oil demand for the first half of 2021 due to extended lockdowns in major economies in Europe and high unemployment rates in the United States slowing the recovery.

Last week, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) reportedly revised down the demand growth estimate to 5.6 million bpd for 2021.

However, OPEC+ signaled confidence in demand rebounding strongly later this year by deciding to return around 2 million bpd by July by easing the production cuts by over 1 million and Saudi Arabia gradually reversing its extra 1-million-bpd cut.

The key question for the oil market and all forecasters now is whether expectations of robust oil demand growth in the second half of the year will materialize. The key wild card, of course, is the pandemic and the ability of major economies to exit lockdowns and other restrictions with strong economic growth. Signs from the United States and China point to robust growth. The easy monetary policy in many continues will also support economic activity and, as an extension, oil demand growth. Progress in vaccination programs would allow more people to start traveling more, including on international airline routes, which is set to spur not only economies but also jet fuel demand which has been badly hit by the pandemic.

Despite lingering uncertainties over the pace of the recovery, most analysts continue to expect strong economic growth over the second half of 2021, which in turn is set to boost oil demand.

The EIA expects global oil markets "to become much more balanced" in the second half of 2021.

"Forecast increases in global oil supply will contribute to a mostly balanced market during the second half of 2021. However, the forecast depends heavily on future production decisions by OPEC+, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to oil prices, and the pace of oil demand growth, among other factors," the EIA said in the April STEO.

U.S. shale will respond to higher oil prices by increasing production between the second quarter and the fourth quarter of 2021, EIA's estimates show. However, the 2021 and 2022 averages for total U.S. crude oil production were reduced by around 100,000 bpd and 160,000 bpd, respectively, from the March forecasts.

American oil production is set to average 11.04 million bpd this year, the latest projections show, down from the 11.1 million bpd estimate from last month. Production in 2022 will average 11.9 million bpd, as per the April estimate, down from 12.0 million bpd expected in March. Last month, however, the EIA had already raised its 2022 estimate by as much as 500,000 bpd because of higher expected oil prices.

This year, thanks to expectations that WTI Crude prices will stay above $55 per barrel, U.S. oil production is set to increase from an average 10.9 million bpd in the second quarter to nearly 11.4 million bpd by the fourth quarter, the EIA said. In the fourth quarter next year, U.S. oil production is expected to average above 12 million bpd—at 12.18 million bpd.

Despite the spending discipline of major U.S. producers, higher oil prices are set to put the shale patch back on a growth trajectory, even if this growth is slower than what we saw before the pandemic.