俄羅斯下調(diào)2021-2022年石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測

據(jù)4月7日MENAFN消息：根據(jù)政府能源發(fā)展計劃的最新修訂，俄羅斯下調(diào)了對2021年和2022年國內(nèi)原油、天然氣和煤炭產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測。

根據(jù)俄羅斯政府的最新預(yù)測，今年的石油產(chǎn)量將達到5.17億噸，低于此前估計的5.6億噸。據(jù)塔斯社報道，俄羅斯對2022年石油產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測也下調(diào)至5.48億噸，低于先前估計的5.58億噸。

根據(jù)政府批準(zhǔn)的文件，對2023年和2024年石油產(chǎn)量的估計保持不變。

預(yù)計天然氣產(chǎn)量以及煤炭產(chǎn)量也低于先前預(yù)期。

然而，俄羅斯保持其液化天然氣(LNG)產(chǎn)量預(yù)測與早先預(yù)測一致，預(yù)計2021年LNG產(chǎn)量為3010萬噸。

上個月，俄羅斯政府批準(zhǔn)了一項液化天然氣的長期開發(fā)計劃，預(yù)計到2035年，其產(chǎn)能將從目前水平提高三倍，達到每年1.4億噸。

盡管如此，對今明兩年石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測的下調(diào)可能在一定程度上反映了正在進行的歐佩克+協(xié)議。

自今年年初以來，俄羅斯一直在爭取歐佩克+對其石油產(chǎn)量小幅增加的讓步。4月份，該國獲準(zhǔn)將產(chǎn)量提高13萬桶/天，而歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的其他成員國則被要求保持產(chǎn)量不變。

即使計劃于5月放寬削減措施，俄羅斯仍然是歐佩克+協(xié)議的一部分，從目前的情況來看，該國仍將在7月實施大約500萬桶/天的合并削減，屆時將在未來三個月內(nèi)減少100萬桶/天的削減。

馮娟 摘譯自 MENAFN

原文如下：

Russia Slashes 2021-2022 Oil Production Forecasts

Russia is slashing its estimates for domestic crude oil, gas, and coal production for 2021 and 2022, according to the latest amendments in the government's program for energy development.

As per the latest forecasts from the Russian government, oil production this year is set to stand at 517 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 560 million tons. The projection for Russia's oil output in 2022 was also reduced, to 548 million tons, down from earlier estimates of production of 558 million tons, TASS news agency reports.

The estimates for the oil production for 2023 and 2024 remain unchanged, according to the document approved by the government.

Natural gas production is also estimated lower than previous projections, as is coal output.

Yet, the Russian government kept its projection for liquefied natural gas (LNG) production the same as in earlier forecasts, expecting LNG production at 30.1 million tons in 2021.

Last month, Russia's government approved a long-term development program for LNG, expecting production capacity to rise threefold from current levels to 140 million tons per year by 2035.

Still, the reduced forecasts for oil production for this year and next likely reflect, in part, the ongoing OPEC+ agreement.

Russia has fought for and won concessions from OPEC+ for small increases in its oil production every month since the start of the year. For April, Russia was allowed to boost its production by 130,000 bpd, while the other members of the OPEC+ alliance have been asked to keep their production flat.

Even after the planned easing of the cuts as of May, Russia continues to be part of the OPEC+ pact, which, as it stands now, is set to still have combined cuts of around 5 million bpd in place in July, when it will have eased 1 million bpd of cuts over the next three months.