需求擔(dān)憂持續(xù) 歐佩克+將決定石油生產(chǎn)政策

據(jù)4月1日CNBC報道，歐佩克+將決定下一階段的石油生產(chǎn)政策。歐佩克+目前每天減產(chǎn)700多萬桶，試圖支撐油價，減少供應(yīng)過剩。該組織主要成員沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)自愿在每日減產(chǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上再減產(chǎn)100萬桶。

這次會議是在蘇伊士運(yùn)河重新開放交通后不久召開的，隨著新冠肺炎疫情繼續(xù)在全球蔓延，法國總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)下令該國第三次進(jìn)入國家一級防范措施，以減輕醫(yī)院的部分壓力。

持續(xù)疫情危機(jī)繼續(xù)給需求前景蒙上陰影，分析師預(yù)計這將使特阿拉伯再次對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。

歐亞集團(tuán)分析師表示,歐佩克+會議最有可能的結(jié)果是4月保持產(chǎn)量不變,沙特阿拉伯繼續(xù)保留其額外的100萬桶的減產(chǎn)——盡管這個額外減產(chǎn)的規(guī)?？赡軙兴鶞p少。

2月全球石油市場“出現(xiàn)了相當(dāng)大的波動”，拋售導(dǎo)致布倫特原油期貨價格從每桶70美元跌至62美元，然后在最近幾天穩(wěn)定在每桶64美元左右。

歐亞集團(tuán)(Eurasia Group)分析師在周三發(fā)布的一份研究報告中表示：“蘇伊士運(yùn)河事件可能幫助了許多產(chǎn)油國，因為它阻止了油價進(jìn)一步下跌。不過，可持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇是否能證明OPEC+每個月都將遵循一個強(qiáng)勁的減量周期，這一點(diǎn)還很不清楚。沙特阿拉伯對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的謹(jǐn)慎在很多方面都是有道理的?！?/span>

周四上午，國際基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油期貨價格報每桶63.81美元，上漲約1.7%，美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨價格報每桶60.33美元，上漲近2%。

在會議之前，歐佩克秘書長穆罕默德·巴爾金多強(qiáng)調(diào)，由于疫情造成的持續(xù)不確定性和脆弱性，需要“保持非常謹(jǐn)慎”。

同樣，沙特此前曾鼓勵歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國在生產(chǎn)政策上保持“極其謹(jǐn)慎”的態(tài)度，警告稱，在尋求確保石油市場全面復(fù)蘇之際，不要太過自信。

與此同時，非歐佩克成員國俄羅斯一直在尋求歐佩克推進(jìn)石油供應(yīng)增加。消息人士投露，周四會議上的石油產(chǎn)量增幅不會超過50萬桶。

能源部長詹妮弗·格蘭霍姆(Jennifer Granholm)周四通過推特(Twitter)表示，她與沙特阿拉伯能源部長阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子通了話，重申了國際合作的重要性，以確保消費(fèi)者獲得負(fù)擔(dān)得起和可靠的能源。

2020年，歐佩克+最初同意創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地將石油日產(chǎn)量削減970萬桶，隨后將減產(chǎn)幅度降低至770萬桶，最終從1月份開始將減產(chǎn)規(guī)模削減至720萬桶。

從2月初到3月，沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)削減了100萬美元的石油儲備，不過這些措施將到期，除非4月1日的會議宣布了進(jìn)一步的措施。

王佳晶 摘譯自 CNBC

原文如下：

OPEC+ to decide on oil production policy as demand concerns persist

A group consisting of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers on Thursday will meet to decide on the next phase of output policy.

OPEC and non-OPEC partners, a group sometimes referred to as OPEC+, are scheduled to hold a virtual meeting from 1 p.m. London time.

The OPEC+ alliance is currently cutting by just over 7 million barrels per day in an attempt to prop up prices and reduce oversupply. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has voluntarily added an additional 1 million barrels per day to those cuts.

The meeting comes shortly after the Suez Canal reopened to traffic and as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide, with French President Emmanuel Macron ordering the country into its third national lockdown to alleviate some of the pressure on hospitals.

The ongoing coronavirus crisis continues to cloud the demand outlook and analysts expect this to reaffirm Saudi Arabia’s caution about the global economic recovery.

Analysts at Eurasia Group said the most likely outcome for the OPEC+ meeting is for the group to keep production unchanged from April and for Saudi Arabia to continue to withhold its additional 1 million barrels per day — although it may taper this slightly by 100,000 barrels “to signal its willingness to adjust.”

They noted that the last month in global oil markets “featured a significant level of volatility” and a sell-off that brought Brent crude futures down to $62 a barrel from $70, before stabilizing around $64 in recent days.

“The Suez Canal incident probably helped many oil producers, as it prevented a further slide in prices,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note published Wednesday.

“Once again, it is far from clear that a sustainable recovery would justify a strong cycle of OPEC+ tapering to be followed each month. Saudi Arabia’s caution about the global economic recovery was in many respects warranted,” they added.

International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $63.81 a barrel on Thursday morning, around 1.7% higher, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $60.33, up almost 2%.

Ahead of the meeting, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo stressed the need “to remain very cautious” as a result of ongoing uncertainties and fragility caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia has previously encouraged allied partners to remain “extremely cautious” on production policy, warning the group against complacency as it seeks to ensure a full oil market recovery.

Non-OPEC leader Russia, meanwhile, has sought for the group to push ahead with a supply increase.

Two unnamed OPEC+ sources told Reuters that an increase in oil production at Thursday’s meeting would not exceed 0.5 million barrels. CNBC was not able to independently verify these sources.

U.S.-Saudi call

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said via Twitter on Thursday that she spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to reaffirm “the importance of international cooperation to ensure affordable and reliable sources of energy for consumers.”

It was thought to be the first call to Riyadh from a U.S. official ahead of an OPEC meeting since President Joe Biden took office.

OPEC+ initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January.

Saudi Arabia has since taken on cuts of 1 million from the beginning of February through March, although these are due to expire unless further measures are announced on April 1.