維多：歐佩克+今年晚些時(shí)候?qū)⑦_(dá)石油庫存目標(biāo)

據(jù)石油新聞2021年3月23日迪拜報(bào)道，世界最大的獨(dú)立石油交易商維多公司亞洲主管邁克?穆勒3月23日表示，由于中國(guó)需求恢復(fù)以及美國(guó)提高其產(chǎn)量滯后，以沙特阿拉伯為首的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟和俄羅斯將推動(dòng)全球石油庫存在今年晚些時(shí)候回到2019年的水平。

穆勒3月23日在Conference Connection組織的2021年富查伊拉加注和燃料油論壇上表示，全球石油日需求仍比2019年水平低約500萬至600萬桶，中國(guó)的需求呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)，歐洲將在未來幾個(gè)月跟進(jìn)。美國(guó)的石油日產(chǎn)量仍然在1100萬桶的范圍內(nèi)，相比之下，去年年初的石油日產(chǎn)量約為1300萬桶。

歐佩克+產(chǎn)量限制幫助推動(dòng)了全球石油市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁反彈，3月12日對(duì)布倫特原油的評(píng)估為每桶69.285美元，這是自2020年1月初以來的最高水平。根據(jù)對(duì)歐佩克+的調(diào)查，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟2月份的日產(chǎn)量為3783萬桶，為去年10月以來的最低水平。這是自去年7月全球經(jīng)濟(jì)從冠狀病毒大流行最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期復(fù)蘇以來，歐佩克+開始縮減其前所未有的減產(chǎn)規(guī)模以后的首次月度環(huán)比下降。

穆勒表示，“鑒于今年迄今為止歐佩克 +聯(lián)盟的凝聚力，歐佩克 +聯(lián)盟有望保持市場(chǎng)上一定量的供應(yīng)，以實(shí)現(xiàn)其將陸上和水上石油庫存減少到2019年水平的既定目標(biāo)?！薄笆袌?chǎng)相信，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟將在今年晚些時(shí)候達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)，因此我們正在看到油價(jià)和曲線的形狀。”

根據(jù)歐佩克3月份的月度報(bào)告，歐佩克自己預(yù)測(cè)今年全球石油日需求為9627萬桶，比2019年的9998萬桶低371萬桶。

李峻 編譯自 石油新聞

原文如下：

OPEC+ set to reach oil inventory goal later this year as US output lags: Vitol

The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is set to push global oil inventories back to 2019 levels later this year with demand recovering in China and the US lagging on boosting its production, according to Mike Muller, Asia head of Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader.

Demand is still about 5-6 million b/d below 2019 levels, with China showing an upswing and Europe set to follow in the next few months, Muller said March 23 at the Fujairah Bunkering & Fuel Oil Forum 2021 organized by Conference Connection. US oil production is still in the low 11 million b/d range, compared with about 13 million b/d in early 2020, he said.

Collective OPEC+ production restraint has helped power a robust rally in the oil market, with assessing Dated Brent on March 12 at $69.285/b, its highest since early January 2020. The group's production in February was 37.83 million b/d, its lowest since October, according to the latest OPEC+ survey. It was the first month-on-month decline since the bloc began tapering its unprecedented production cuts in July, when the global economy took its first tentative steps in recovering from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.

"On the strength of the OPEC plus cohesion witnessed so far this year, OPEC plus is on track to keep a commensurate amount of supply off the market to meet their stated objective of seeing oil inventories onshore and on the water reduced to 2019 levels," Muller said. "The market believes OPEC plus will reach that objective at some point later this year, hence the price and the shape of the curve we're seeing."

OPEC itself is forecasting global oil demand of 96.27 million b/d for 2021, according to its March monthly report, which is 3.71 million b/d below the 99.98 million b/d in 2019.