2027年液化天然氣需求將超過產(chǎn)量

據(jù)油氣新聞3月25日消息稱，俄羅斯液化天然氣長期生產(chǎn)發(fā)展計劃稱，由于2020年的危機(jī)，2027年液化天然氣(LNG)的需求可能超過其產(chǎn)量。

該文件說：“液化天然氣市場的特點(diǎn)還在于潛力的增加，并宣布將實施液化天然氣生產(chǎn)的出口項目?？紤]到2020年需求增長率的收縮，預(yù)計2027年液化天然氣的需求將超過產(chǎn)量。對于俄羅斯液化天然氣生產(chǎn)項目來說，這是一個潛在的機(jī)會窗口，目前這些項目處于設(shè)計階段，因此還沒有做出最終的投資決定?！?/span>

考慮到能源領(lǐng)域的現(xiàn)有趨勢，2040年后天然氣項目可能面臨天然氣市場增長率的收縮和競爭的加劇。根據(jù)這份文件：“這一趨勢的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動力將是技術(shù)的改進(jìn)，使降低替代能源的發(fā)電成本成為可能。這樣的下降實際上可能會在2035年后阻止化石能源使用的增長。”

朱佳妮 摘譯自 油氣新聞

原文如下：

LNG demand to be above production in 2027

The demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) can outpace its production in 2027 because of the crisis year of 2020, the Russian long-term LNG production development program says.

“The liquefied natural gas market is also characterized by an increase in potential and declared for implementation export projects of LNG production. Considering the contraction of demand growth rates in 2020, the forecast demand for liquefied natural gas will be above production in 2027. This is a potential window of opportunities for Russian projects on liquefied natural gas production, which are at the design stage now and whereupon no final investment decision was made,” the document says.

Gas project may face the contraction of natural gas market growth rates and intensified competition after 2040, considering the existing trends in the energy sector. “The key driver of this trend will be improvement of technologies, making possible to reduce the generation cost for alternative energy sources. Such a decline may actually stop growth in use of fossil energy sources after 2035,” according to the document.