金價(jià)或突破每盎司1750美元 油價(jià)將持穩(wěn)

據(jù)3月22日Investing.com報(bào)道，在美國國債收益率飆升之際，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(FED)主席杰羅姆?鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)和財(cái)政部長珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)將在美國國會(huì)作證，預(yù)計(jì)近期金價(jià)將突破上周未能達(dá)到的1750美元的目標(biāo)，重返1800美元/盎司的關(guān)口。

與此同時(shí)，預(yù)計(jì)美國原油價(jià)格將不會(huì)回落至上周觸及的每桶60美元水平以下，雖然歐洲可能會(huì)因?yàn)樾鹿诜窝滓咔榈挠绊懚M(jìn)一步實(shí)行封鎖措施，讓人們對(duì)燃料需求的擔(dān)憂持續(xù)升溫。

鮑威爾和耶倫將出席眾議院金融服務(wù)委員會(huì)(House Financial Services Committee)和參議院銀行委員會(huì)(Senate Banking Committee)會(huì)議，討論美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康狀況，以及財(cái)政和貨幣刺激對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)從疫情中復(fù)蘇的重要性。

本周還有六位以上的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員將發(fā)表講話，包括美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)副主席克拉里達(dá)(Richard Clarida)、副主席夸爾斯(Randal Quarles)、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事布雷納德(Lael Brainard)和紐約聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行行長威廉姆斯(John Williams)。

鮑威爾或耶倫會(huì)就縮減購債計(jì)劃提供一些見解嗎?

除了有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的發(fā)言外，投資者還希望在采取所謂的“縮減購債規(guī)?！敝?，能了解到鮑威爾和耶倫愿意讓美國國債收益率上升多少。要知道，美國基準(zhǔn)10年期國債在周四觸及13個(gè)月高點(diǎn)1.754%。

金融市場已經(jīng)偏離美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)貨幣政策的預(yù)期，市場預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首次加息的時(shí)間將比其預(yù)期的更早。隨著美國1.9萬億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃開始發(fā)揮作用，人們擔(dān)心受到大規(guī)模打擊的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)失控的復(fù)蘇。

Bianco Research的吉姆?比安科(Jim Bianco)在CNBC上談到10年期美國國債時(shí)表示:“或許我們可以看到它跌回1.50%。但我認(rèn)為，這不過是長期高收益率走勢的一個(gè)喘息之機(jī)?！?/span>

由于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)堅(jiān)持將利率維持在接近零的水平，債券收益率飆升，有人認(rèn)為未來幾個(gè)月的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可能超出美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的預(yù)期，從而導(dǎo)致通脹率不斷攀升。

在通脹擔(dān)憂加劇的環(huán)境下，美元通常會(huì)下跌，但在同樣失控的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇邏輯下，美元也會(huì)反彈。美元作為儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地位增強(qiáng)了其作為避風(fēng)港的地位，導(dǎo)致了新的美元多頭頭寸的建立。周一，美元兌六種主要貨幣的指數(shù)為91.98，接近關(guān)鍵位92。

美元和債券收益率飆升令黃金深為頭痛，迫使金價(jià)從8月份接近每盎司2100美元的紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)下跌17%。周一格林尼治時(shí)間4點(diǎn)，紐約商品交易所(COMEX)黃金期貨幾乎持平，報(bào)每盎司1741.65美元，從日低1731.55美元/盎司反彈。

幾十年來，每當(dāng)人們擔(dān)心通脹時(shí)，黃金都被吹捧為最好的保值手段。然而，近幾個(gè)月來，由于華爾街銀行、對(duì)沖基金和其他參與者在推高美國債券收益率和美元匯率的同時(shí)，刻意阻止黃金成為投資者的首選資產(chǎn)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)表示將在未來幾個(gè)月加大債券購買力度的任何信號(hào)，都可能是壓低收益率、引發(fā)金價(jià)反彈的原因。但鮑威爾在周三的月度新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上拒絕給出任何央行增加美國國債購買的暗示。

如果標(biāo)普走軟，黃金將獲得更多關(guān)注

鮑威爾表示，隨著時(shí)間的推移，美國失業(yè)率可能會(huì)從2月份的6.2%下降，而通貨膨脹率將上升2.4%，預(yù)計(jì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將從2020年的疫情中實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈，GDP將增長6.5%。因此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否會(huì)進(jìn)一步調(diào)整政策還有待觀察。

紐約OANDA分析師Ed Moya表示:“未來幾個(gè)月將很難確定哪些因素將是黃金投資者的主要推手。華爾街將繼續(xù)關(guān)注債券市場的拋售，以及最近對(duì)科技股的輕視?！?/span>

Moya表示，金價(jià)開始獲得一些投資者的關(guān)注，因美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的行動(dòng)最終將抵消公債收益率上升的影響。

黃金目前的狀況較好，一個(gè)月以來上漲了0.7%，此前1 - 2月份金價(jià)下跌了9%。但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾也將觀望是否會(huì)重返每盎司1800美元或更高水平。

油價(jià)在一周暴跌后試圖找到最低位

以石油為例，截至格林尼治時(shí)間4點(diǎn)，美國原油基準(zhǔn)的紐約西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格為每桶61.22美元，下跌22美分，即0.4%。在倫敦交易的全球原油基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油(Brent)報(bào)每桶64.25美元，下跌28美分，跌幅0.4%。

原油價(jià)格上周下跌了7%，這是原油價(jià)格繼近五個(gè)月幾乎沒有增產(chǎn)后首次出現(xiàn)有意義的下跌。油價(jià)上漲是由歐佩克+減產(chǎn)、重新開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的承諾以及美國疫情救助措施推動(dòng)的。

當(dāng)時(shí)幾乎被忽視的是對(duì)噴氣式飛機(jī)和其他運(yùn)輸燃料的需求疲軟，因?yàn)槿蚵眯腥匀粐?yán)重受到疫情的限制。歐洲與新冠肺炎疫情的持續(xù)斗爭;疫苗接種速度慢得驚人;歐盟各國也沒有嚴(yán)肅對(duì)待新的封鎖措施。然而，這些擔(dān)憂在周四達(dá)到了頂點(diǎn)，美國國債收益率升至13個(gè)月高點(diǎn)，美元指數(shù)飆升至近92點(diǎn)，加劇了這種擔(dān)憂。美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油跌至每桶58.20美元，布倫特原油(Brent)跌至每桶61.45美元，均為5周低點(diǎn)。

德國周四表示，計(jì)劃將封鎖時(shí)間延長至第五個(gè)月，以控制疫情感染。此前，德國當(dāng)局表示，新病例超過了醫(yī)院的負(fù)荷。

路透社援引Axi首席全球市場策略師Stephen Innes的話表示：“現(xiàn)實(shí)情況是，我們距離需求的全面復(fù)蘇還有很長的路要走，而創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的產(chǎn)能水平是支撐石油市場的主要因素?！?/span>

美國鉆井公司也開始利用此前因?qū)π枨蠡謴?fù)的樂觀情緒而出現(xiàn)的價(jià)格飆升，在截至上周五的一周內(nèi)增加了自1月以來的最多的石油開采平臺(tái)。

能源服務(wù)公司貝克休斯周五在其備受關(guān)注的報(bào)告中表示，作為未來產(chǎn)量的早期指標(biāo)，上周石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量增加9臺(tái)，至318臺(tái)，為4月份以來最高水平。值得一提的是，過去7個(gè)月里，鉆井平臺(tái)數(shù)量一直在增加，較8月份244臺(tái)的歷史低點(diǎn)增加了近70%。

本周，石油和黃金數(shù)據(jù)紛繁復(fù)雜

石油和黃金價(jià)格也可能對(duì)美國本周公布的大量數(shù)據(jù)做出反應(yīng)。這包括耐用品訂單、個(gè)人收入和支出報(bào)告，以及新的房屋銷售數(shù)據(jù)。

由于2月嚴(yán)重的冬季風(fēng)暴對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的影響，房屋數(shù)據(jù)以及個(gè)人收入和支出數(shù)據(jù)(包括美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)青睞的通脹指標(biāo)PCE平減指數(shù))可能會(huì)顯示疲弱。然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將是短暫的。

美國還將發(fā)布2020年第四季度GDP的最新修訂版，最新報(bào)告的2020年GDP年度增幅為4.1%。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Commodities Week Ahead: Gold Aims To Crack $1,750; Oil To Stay In $60s

Gold is expected to get above the $1,750 target it missed last week in its aim to return to the $1,800 berth, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testify before Congress amid the surge in US bond yields.

US crude oil, is, meanwhile, expected to avoid a return below the $60 mark hit last week, as the prospect of more COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe keep concerns about fuel demand on the boil.

Powell and Yellen will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday to discuss the health of the US economy and the importance of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the recovery from the pandemic.

There are also more than half a dozen other Fed officials due to speak during the week, including Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, and New York Fed President John Williams.

Will Powell Or Yellen Offer Insight Into Tapering?

Aside from their testimony on the economy, investors will also be hoping to glean an insight into how much higher Powell and Yellen would be willing to let Treasury yields go before resorting to what is popularly known as tapering.

US bonds’ benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a session high of 1.707% by 12:00 AM ET (4:00 GMT), after Thursday’s 13-month high at 1.754%.

Financial markets have diverged from the Fed’s outlook for monetary policy, pricing in a first rate hike sooner than the central bank expects. This comes amid fears of a runaway recovery in a pandemic-hit economy as the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus goes to work.

“Maybe we can see it fall way back to 1.50 (%),” Jim Bianco of Bianco Research said on CNBC, referring to the 10-year Treasury note. “But I wouldn’t consider that anything more than a respite in a move for longer-term for higher-yields.”

Bond yields have surged on the argument that economic recovery in the coming months could extend beyond the Fed expectations, leading to spiralling inflation, as the central bank insists on keeping interest rates at near zero.

The dollar, which typically falls in an environment of heightened inflation fears, also rallied on the same runaway economic recovery logic. The greenback’s status as a reserve currency has bolstered its standing as a safe haven, leading to new long positions being built in the dollar. On Monday, the Dollar Index, pitted against six major currencies, was at 91.98, nearing the key 92 level.

The surging dollar and bond yields have been an anathema to gold, forcing the yellow metal to lose 17% from record highs of nearly $2,100 in August. At 4:00 GMT on Monday, gold futures on New York’s COMEX were almost flat at $1,741.65, recovering from a session low of $1,731.55.

For decades, gold was touted as the best store of value whenever there were worries about inflation. Yet, in recent months, it was deliberately prevented from being the go-to asset for investors as Wall Street banks, hedge funds and other actors shorted the metal while pushing up US bond yields and the dollar instead.

Any indications by the Fed that it will intensify bond buying in the coming months could be just the thing to clamp down on yields and spark a rally in gold.

But Powell in his monthly news conference on Wednesday declined to give any hint of the central bank adding to its Treasury purchases.

Gold Will Gain More Attention If S&P Weakens

Powell said that as the year progresses, the US jobless rate will likely decline from February’s 6.2% while inflation expands 2.4% amid an overall 6.5% growth in GDP expected in an economy rebounding from a pandemic-stricken 2020.

Thus, it will be a wait-and-see for further tinkering of Fed policy, he said.“The next few months will be very tricky in identifying what will be the primary catalysts for bullion investors,” said Ed Moya, analyst at New York’s OANDA. “Wall Street will remain fixated on the bond market selloff and recent disdain for technology stocks.”

Moya said gold was beginning to gain some investor attention because rising Treasury yields will eventually be countered by action from the Federal Reserve.

Gold is in a better position now, rising 0.7% month-to-date, after the 9% drop in January through February. But its return to $1,800 and beyond will also be a wait-and-see of the Fed and S&P.

Oil Tries To Find Floor After Weekly Plunge

In oil’s case, New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for US crude, was at $61.22 per barrel by 4:00 GMT, down 22 cents, or 0.4%.

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, was at $64.25, down 28 cents or 0.4%.

Crude prices fell 7% last week, the first meaningful drop after a near five-month rally with barely any stops. The run-up was driven by OPEC+ production cuts, the promise of economic reopenings from coronavirus closures and the blockbuster US pandemic relief.

Virtually overlooked in that time was the anemic demand for jet and other transportation fuels as global travel remained heavily curtailed by the pandemic. Europe’s constant struggle with new outbreaks of COVID-19 infections; its alarmingly slow pace of vaccinations; and fresh lockdowns across the bloc were also treated with little seriousness.

On Thursday, however, those concerns came to a head, exacerbated by the 13-month highs in US Treasury yields and the Dollar Index’s spike to near 92. US WTI slumped to $58.20 while Brent fell to $61.45, both a five-week low.

Germany said on Thursday it planned to extend lockdowns to contain COVID-19 infections into a fifth month, after new cases exceeded levels authorities said will cause hospitals to be overstretched.

Said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi, as quoted by Reuters:"The reality is that we're still a long way from a full demand recovery, and it's the record levels of withdrawn production capacity that's the main prop for the oil market."

US drillers were also starting to take advantage of an earlier spike in prices on optimism about returning demand, adding the most rigs for extracting oil since January in the week through Friday.

The oil drilling rig tally, an early indicator of future production, rose by nine to 318 last week, the highest since April, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.

The rig count has been rising over the past seven months and is up nearly 70% from a record low of 244 in August.

A Data Crammed Week For Oil And Gold

Both oil and gold prices could also react to a raft of US data due this week. This include durable goods orders and the personal income and spending reports, along with figures on new and existing home sales.

The housing data, together with the personal income and spending figures, which include the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will probably show weakness, due to the impact of severe winter storms on economic activity in February. However, economists expect the slump to be short-lived.

The US is also to publish the latest revision of fourth quarter 2020 GDP, which was last reported at an annualized 4.1%.