IHS Markit預計到2024年可再生能源年裝機量增長將達50%

據(jù)Renewables Now網(wǎng)3月18日報道，根據(jù)IHS Markit的一份白皮書顯示，每年新增的可再生能源發(fā)電能力將從2020年的200吉瓦上升到2022年的250吉瓦左右，然后到2024年增加到300吉瓦以上。

該增長主要是由風能和太陽能成本的下降以及企業(yè)和國家宣布的凈零承諾推動的。

據(jù)IHS稱，2015-2021年間，太陽能光伏發(fā)電（PV）系統(tǒng)的平均成本下降了54%，目前太陽能已成為“幾乎所有地方的首選資源”。其將占2021-2024年間新增可再生能源產(chǎn)能的大部分。

德國、意大利、西班牙、韓國和其他國家最近已經(jīng)提高或打算提高太陽能目標。

去年陸上風電的裝機容量達到創(chuàng)紀錄水平，新增裝機容量近120GW。該市場研究公司預計，2021年將是另一個強勁的年份，美國的開發(fā)商將趕在這些市場的補貼年底到期之前完成項目。

然而，歐洲某些地區(qū)的“后院原則”阻止以及太陽能的競爭力日益增強，阻礙了風力在歐洲的發(fā)展。該白皮書稱，然而，最先進的渦輪機的成本效率，容量超過5兆瓦，負荷達到40%，使它們成為經(jīng)濟的選擇。

海上風電的情況看起來比較樂觀，2021年的裝機容量預計將達到11吉瓦，比2020年翻了一番。中國裝機容量激增，而日本、英國和波蘭都提出了更高的海上風電目標。在美國，該行業(yè)再一次獲得了強有力的支持。

IHS Markit指出，拍賣和企業(yè)買家是支持未來可再生能源增長的兩個重要因素。該公司稱，厄瓜多爾和緬甸等新興市場在2020年首次舉行了可再生能源拍賣，越南（將進行首次太陽能招標）、菲律賓和斯洛伐克等新興市場可能在2021年加入拍賣行列。與此同時，企業(yè)購電協(xié)議（CPPA）也在不斷上升。在美國，新的企業(yè)承購交易幾乎與2020年所有其他可再生能源合約的交易持平。

在能源行業(yè)，特別是總部位于歐洲的英國石油(BP)、殼牌(Shell)和道達爾(Total)等油氣巨頭，也在加大對可再生能源的投資。根據(jù)IHS Markit的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，油氣公司2019年進行了18次太陽能和風能收購，2020年為17次，而2018年僅為9次。

郝芬 譯自 Renewables Now

原文如下：

IHS Markit sees up to 50% increase in annual renewables installs by 2024

Annual renewable power generation capacity additions will rise from 200 GW in 2020 to around 250 GW in 2022 and then to more than 300 GW in 2024, according to a white paper by IHS Markit.

This growth is being driven mainly by the falling costs of wind and solar, and the net-zero commitments that companies and countries are announcing.

The average solar photovoltaic (PV) system costs have fallen by 54% between 2015 and 2021 and solar is now a “preferred resource almost everywhere”, IHS said. It will account for the majority of new renewables capacity added between 2021 and 2024.

Germany, Italy, Spain, South Korea, and other countries have recently raised or intend to raise their solar targets.

Onshore wind achieved record installations in 2020 with almost 120 GW of new capacity and the market research company expects 2021 to be another strong year with developers in the US rushing to complete projects before subsidies in these markets expire at year-end.

The growth of wind in Europe, however, is being hampered by a "not in my backyard" pushback in certain parts of the continent and the growing competitiveness of solar. "Yet, the cost efficiency of state-of-the-art turbines, with capacities above 5 MW and loads reaching 40%, make them economic options," the white paper said.

Things look brighter for offshore wind, where installations in 2021 are expected to reach 11 GW, doubling the 2020 figure. There is a boom in capacity additions in China, while Japan, the UK and Poland have introduced higher offshore wind goals. In the US,the sector once again enjoys strong support.

IHS Markit pointed to auctions and corporate buyers as the two important factors supporting future growth in renewables.

"New markets like Ecuador and Myanmar held their first renewables auctions in 2020, and newcomers like Vietnam (which will have its first solar tender), the Philippines, and Slovakia will likely join them in 2021," the company said. At the same time, corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs) are definitely on the rise. In the US, new corporate offtake deals nearly matched those of all other renewables contracting in 2020.

Within the energy industry, oil and gas majors, especially those based in Europe such as BP, Shell and Total, are also boosting investments in renewables. According to IHS Markit, oil and gas companies made 18 solar and wind acquisitions in 2019 and 17 in 2020, up from just with nine in 2018.