石油巨頭的海上風能之旅才剛剛開始

據3月18日伍德麥肯茲官網報道，石油巨頭只有用大動作才能產生較大的影響，因為如果任何新的戰(zhàn)略地位要對其龐大的投資組合產生實質性影響，那么它必須這么做。而海上風力發(fā)電是歐洲各大石油巨頭正在關注的重要新事物，它是一種“可以隨時投入使用”的零碳技術，具有巨大的增長前景。就在本周，英國石油(BP)和道達爾(Total)在最新一輪英國海上風電租賃中發(fā)起了引人注目的競標。

但如今，海上風能市場仍然很小。它能滿足眾多想要參與進來的能源公司的巨大需求嗎?海上風能研究主管S?ren Lassen和企業(yè)研究主管諾曼瓦倫丁表示，他們即將發(fā)布各大巨頭海上風電戰(zhàn)略的第一份基準分析報告。

未來的機會是什么?

未來幾十年，產能增長將是巨大的。目前，海上風力發(fā)電僅為35吉瓦，僅占全球風力發(fā)電量的6%，其中大部分是陸上風力發(fā)電。但最近的技術進步——更大的渦輪機，更高的容量因數，浮式渦輪機等，已經讓海上風力發(fā)電的規(guī)模達到了頂峰。預測，到2030年，全球裝機容量將超過200吉瓦。現(xiàn)有的成熟市場都在北歐和中國，下一波浪潮——美國、歐洲亞洲其它地方的海上風電潮流才剛剛開始。

大型石油公司的參與會帶來什么?

這些投資完全符合大型石油公司在海上開發(fā)方面的技能組合，存在運營協(xié)同效應，間歇性的可再生能源(通常根據電力購買協(xié)議定價)為能源交易增加了另一個維度。除了財力雄厚，大型企業(yè)還可以利用自己的國際影響力來進入新市場，這是它們相對于以本地為重點的公用事業(yè)公司的優(yōu)勢。假以時日，海上風電投資組合可能會像今天的上游油氣投資組合一樣實現(xiàn)全球化。

目前有什么進展?

歐元區(qū)主要國家的運營能力僅為0.7吉瓦，占中國以外地區(qū)總容量的3%。但它們肩負著一項使命，在2020年完成最終投資決定的9吉瓦中，他們已經獲得了30%的份額。不僅在發(fā)展，而且也在逐漸成熟，前期開發(fā)項目正處于不同階段。此外，它還將在不同的地理位置和技術上實現(xiàn)多樣化——例如，歐洲主要國家正在較早地進軍海上浮式風電領域。

規(guī)模會達到多大?

歐元區(qū)大型石油公司們（不包括殼牌）的可再生能源目標是，到2030年，包括太陽能和陸上風電在內的可再生能源發(fā)電量達到125吉瓦，是目前海上風電發(fā)電量的6倍。如果它們在新項目中保持30%的市場份額，那么根據對2029年海上風電裝機容量為200吉瓦的預測，將獲得60吉瓦的裝機容量。在我們看來，這是一個相當遠大的目標。

資產價格正在受到擠壓嗎?

人們擔心的是，供應根本不足以滿足歐元區(qū)能源巨頭們進入市場所引發(fā)的需求。本周的英國第四輪租賃拍賣（LR4）顯示了大型石油公司的積極性——英國石油公司/英格蘭國家石油公司（BP/EnBW）以18億英鎊的價格競購3吉瓦的愛爾蘭海上項目（四年內的總期權費），這一價格大約是其他中標價格的兩倍。道達爾成功投資了1.5吉瓦的風電項目。按凈額計算，英國石油公司（19%）和道達爾公司（9%）幾乎占擬議租賃產能的30%。

許多因素使得英國LR4極具吸引力:該地區(qū)是領先的海上風電市場，也是最大的幾個項目之一。所有的條款都提供了60年的租約(兩個渦輪機使用周期)，以及開發(fā)商首選的定價機制(低風險，政府支持的差價合同)。BP/EnBW的愛爾蘭海域在離岸距離、水深和預計許可程序方面具有優(yōu)勢。

大公司是否花了太多錢來進入風電市場?

必須參與其中才能贏得比賽。有全球野心的海上風電開發(fā)商需要有資格參加未來世界任何地方的投標并與之合作。

然而，孤立地看，預先支付一大筆投入，將使這些巨頭更難從可再生能源領域實現(xiàn)兩位數的回報目標。開發(fā)商必須確保項目交付、執(zhí)行、資本和運營支出方面的紀律；任何協(xié)同效應，無論是貿易、金融還是稅收，都是最大化的。相關模型表明，較高的個位數回報仍然是可以實現(xiàn)的。

隨著大型石油公司向包括海上風能在內的新能源領域投入越來越多的資金，與任何新業(yè)務的收購或多元化投資一樣，大型石油公司需要持續(xù)且清晰地闡明其價值主張。

海上風電在新能源戰(zhàn)略中的地位如何?

海上風電項目是歐元區(qū)的核心投資選擇之一。大多數巨頭同時建設太陽能和陸上風電，但海上風電項目規(guī)模更大，容量系數更高。Equinor的目標是成為一家“海上風電巨頭”，專注于成為一流的運營商，要知道它已經是全球領先的石油巨頭，凈股本容量為12吉瓦，超過其他公司的總和。但其他能源巨頭正在努力追趕。尤其是英國石油公司和道達爾在這項技術上的賭注越來越大。殼牌更注重客戶——它將海上風電視為其整合價值鏈的一部分，為客戶提供低碳能源。

海上風電將是零碳投資組合的核心部分，其中將包括碳捕獲和能源存儲。它還將在綠色氫氣等發(fā)電技術的商業(yè)化方面發(fā)揮核心作用。

下一個大的招標項目在哪里?

在英國LR4、Equinor和英國石油公司在紐約的2.5吉瓦的招標中獲得成功后，2021年還會有更多的項目。預計，歐洲(英國、波蘭、荷蘭、丹麥)、日本和美國的招標容量將超過23吉瓦，幾乎與中國以外地區(qū)目前已經上線的新產能相當。除此之外，今年還將獲得15吉瓦的租賃面積。希望大公司們可以參與其中的大部分項目。

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德麥肯茲官網

原文如下：

Big Oil’s offshore wind journey is only just beginning

Big Oil always goes in big. It has to, if any new strategic position is to make a material impact on its massive portfolios. And offshore wind is the big new thing the European Majors are seizing upon, an ‘oven-ready’ zero-carbon technology with big growth prospects. Just this week, BP and Total made headline-grabbing bids in the latest UK offshore wind lease round.

But today offshore wind is still a tiny market. Can it feed the voracious appetites of the multitude of energy companies wanting to get in on the action? I asked S?ren Lassen, Head of Offshore Wind Research, and Norman Valentine, Director Corporate Research, who are about to release our first benchmarking analysis of the Majors’ strategies for offshore wind.

What’s the opportunity?

Capacity growth is going to be huge and sustained over decades. Offshore wind is niche today at 35 GW, just 6% of global wind capacity, most of which is onshore. But recent technology advances – bigger turbines, higher capacity factors, floating turbines – have got offshore wind to the cusp of scaling up. We forecast global installed capacity will exceed 200 GW by 2030. The established markets are all in northern Europe and China, the next wave – US, elsewhere in Europe and Asia – is just opening up.

What do the Majors bring to the party?

The developments fit neatly into Big Oil’s skill set in offshore development, there are operational synergies and the intermittent renewables power (typically priced on power purchase agreements) adds another dimension to energy trading. Besides financial muscle, the Majors can leverage their international footprint to access new markets, an advantage over local-focused utilities. In time, offshore wind portfolios may be as global as upstream oil and gas is today.

What’s the progress so far?

Coming a little late to the party, the Euro Majors’ operational capacity is just 0.7 GW, 3% of the global total outside China. But they are on a mission and have secured 30% of the 9 GW that achieved final investment decisions in 2020. The pipeline’s not just growing but also maturing, with pre-development projects at different stages. It’s also diversifying across geographies and technologies – for instance, the Euro Majors are pushing early into floating offshore wind.

How big do they want to be?

The ambition is stratospheric. The Euro Majors (excluding Shell) have a target for renewables, including solar and onshore wind of 125 GW by 2030 – six times their present offshore wind pipeline exposure. If they maintain their recent market share of 30% in new projects, then that would give them 60 GW, based on our forecast for installed offshore wind capacity in 2029 of 200 GW. It’s quite a tall order in our view.

Are asset prices being squeezed?

The concern is that there’s simply not enough supply to meet the demand fuelled by the arrival of the Euro Majors into the market. This week’s UK Round 4 lease auction (LR4) showed how aggressive Big Oil can be – the winning Irish Sea bid from BP/EnBW for 3 GW of ￡1.8 billion (total option fees over four years, more if delayed, in payments to the UK Crown Estate) was roughly double those of the other winning bids. Total was the other successful Euro Major (with investor GIG) for 1.5 GW. On a net basis, BP (19%) and Total (9%) accounted for almost 30% of the proposed capacity awarded.

A host of factors made the UK LR4 highly attractive: it’s the leading offshore wind market and project scale is among the biggest. The terms all offered 60-year leases (long enough for two turbine life cycles and much longer than the longest-life accessible oil and gas projects) with the developers’ preferred pricing mechanism (low risk, government-backed contracts-for-difference). BP/EnBW’s Irish Sea sites have advantages in proximity to shore, water depth and expected permitting process.

Are the Majors paying too much to get in?

You have to be in it to win it. Offshore wind developers with global ambitions need credentials to participate and partner in future tenders anywhere in the world.

Yet looked at in isolation, paying a big option fee upfront will make it harder to achieve the double-digit returns the Euro Majors aim for from renewables. To claw back the 300 bp to 500 bp effective cost in option fees, developers will have to ensure discipline on project delivery, execution, capital and operating expenditure; and that any synergies whether trading, finance or tax are maximised. Our modelling suggests project returns in high single digits are still achievable.

As with any acquisition or diversification into a new activity, Big Oil will need to continuously and clearly articulate the value proposition as it commits increasingly large amounts of capital into new energy, including offshore wind.

Where does offshore wind fit in new energy strategies?

It’s one of a number of core options where the Euro Majors are gaining exposure. Most are simultaneously building out solar and onshore wind; but offshore wind has bigger project scale and higher capacity factors. Equinor aims to be an “offshore wind Major”, focused on being the best-in-class operator – it’s already the leading oil Major with net equity capacity of 12 GW, more than the rest put together. But the others are working hard to catch up. BP and Total, in particular, are placing increasingly bigger bets on the technology. Shell is more customer focused – it sees offshore wind as part of its integrated value chain that supplies low-carbon energy to its customers.

Offshore wind will be a core part of integrated zero-carbon portfolios, which will include carbon capture and energy storage. It will also have a central role to play in commercialising power-to-X technologies like green hydrogen.

Where are the next big tenders?

After UK LR4 and Equinor and BP’s success in the 2.5 GW New York tender, there’s a lot more to come in 2021. We expect more than 23 GW to be up for tender in Europe (UK, Poland, Netherlands, Denmark), Japan and the US, almost as much new capacity as is already online outside China today. On top of that, there is another 15 GW of lease acreage to be awarded this year. We expect the Majors to participate in most of these.