IRENA：世界2025年前需要131萬億美元清潔能源投資

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年3月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際可再生能源署(IRENA)3月16日在一份報(bào)告中表示，如果世界要實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》規(guī)定的1.5攝氏度的目標(biāo)，世界需要把能源投資轉(zhuǎn)向低碳能源以及在2050年前把那些投資提高30%，總投資達(dá)到131萬億美元。

IRENA在其《世界能源轉(zhuǎn)型展望》報(bào)告中指出，目前，政府計(jì)劃到本世紀(jì)中葉前，在能源系統(tǒng)方面投入98萬億美元，但這一投資數(shù)字應(yīng)該增加30%，以便使全球氣溫保持在《巴黎協(xié)定》規(guī)定的1.5攝氏度目標(biāo)以內(nèi)。

到2050年前，累計(jì)投資131萬億美元意味著清潔能源解決方案的年投資將達(dá)到4.4萬億美元。

根據(jù)IRENA，未來30年超過80%的投資或者每年大約4萬億美元投資需要投資于能源轉(zhuǎn)型技術(shù)(不含化石燃料和核能)，如可再生能源、能源效率、最終用途電氣化、電網(wǎng)、靈活創(chuàng)新(氫)和碳去除措施。

根據(jù)IRENA的分析，在2050年前，全球應(yīng)將24萬億美元的投資從化石燃料重新轉(zhuǎn)向能源轉(zhuǎn)型技術(shù)。

在1.5攝氏度的方案中，到2050年前，全球化石燃料產(chǎn)量將下降75%以上，化石燃料總消費(fèi)量將從2021年起持續(xù)下降。

IRENA表示，到2050年前，與2018年的水平相比，全球石油需求將大幅下降85%左右，要達(dá)到1.5攝氏度方案，燃煤發(fā)電必須逐步淘汰。

目前，即使許多預(yù)測(cè)者認(rèn)為石油需求將在10年或20年內(nèi)達(dá)到峰值，他們也都認(rèn)為需求將在峰值后趨于穩(wěn)定，而不是暴跌，而亞洲的煤炭需求在中國(guó)、印度和東南亞的引領(lǐng)下將繼續(xù)上升。

要實(shí)現(xiàn)1.5攝氏度的目標(biāo)，世界不僅需要大幅減少石油和煤炭需求，世界還需要大幅增加可再生能源產(chǎn)能，這需要增長(zhǎng)10倍。IRENA表示，這意味著全球每年需要新增840吉瓦的可再生能源裝機(jī)容量，而近年來每年新增大約200吉瓦。

IRENA總干事弗朗西斯科·卡梅拉在報(bào)告的情況說明中說，“最近的趨勢(shì)表明，我們與應(yīng)該達(dá)到的水平之間的差距不是在縮小，而是在擴(kuò)大。我們正朝著錯(cuò)誤的方向前進(jìn)?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The World Needs $131 Trillion In Clean Energy Investment By 2050

The world needs to shift energy investments to low-carbon energy sources and boost those investments by 30 percent to a total of US$131 trillion by 2050 if it is to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said in a report on Tuesday.

Currently, government plans envisage U$98 trillion in energy systems by the middle of this century, but this should be boosted by 30 percent so that the world remains on the 1.5 degrees Celsius path of the Paris Agreement goals, IRENA said in its World Energy Transitions Outlook.

The US$131 trillion cumulative investment by 2050 would mean annual investments of U$4.4 trillion in clean energy solutions.

More than 80 percent of the investment over the next three decades, or some US$4 trillion a year, needs to be invested in energy transition technologies (excluding fossil fuels and nuclear) such as renewables, energy efficiency, end-use electrification, power grids, flexibility innovation (hydrogen), and carbon removal measures, according to IRENA.

According to the agency’s analysis, US$24 trillion of investment should be redirected fr In the 1.5°C Scenario, fossil fuel production should decline by more than 75 percent by 2050, with total fossil fuel consumption continuously declining from 2021 onwards.

Oil demand would decline significantly by around 85 percent by 2050 compared to the 2018 level, IRENA said, while coal as power generation has to be phased out for reaching a 1.5°C Scenario.

Currently, even if many forecasters say that peak oil demand will occur within a decade or two, all of them see demand plateauing, not plunging, after the peak, while coal demand in Asia continues to rise, led by China, India, and Southeast Asia.

The 1.5°C Scenario will not only need a drastic reduction of oil and coal demand. It will also need a significant increase in renewable energy capacity, which needs to grow tenfold. This would mean that annually, the world will need more than 840 GW of new renewable capacity additions, up from around 200 GW added each year in recent years, IRENA said.

“The recent trends show that the gap between where we are and where we should be is not decreasing but widening. We are heading in the wrong direction,” IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera, said in a note in the report.