亞洲LNG需求顛覆全球定價模式

據(jù)世界石油3月15日消息，亞洲作為全球天然氣貿(mào)易超級大洲的崛起，將越來越多地影響歐洲天然氣的市場價格，天然氣這種本地化商品的價格曾經(jīng)一度僅與石油價格相關(guān)。

這一變化在今年冬天得到了突出體現(xiàn)，當時北半球的低溫使得液化天然氣油輪紛紛將貨物運往亞洲，而亞洲是液化天然氣的最大消費區(qū)，賣方可以從中獲得創(chuàng)紀錄的高價。這推高了歐洲的天然氣市場水平，相反，隨著冬季結(jié)束、液化天然氣供應(yīng)回歸該地區(qū)，價格也隨之剎車。

瑞士交易商Axpo Solutions AG基礎(chǔ)分析和建模團隊負責人安迪·索默（Andy Sommer）表示：“未來幾年，歐洲天然氣價格將越來越不以歐洲為中心，而變得日益受全球影響?！?/span>

盡管有眾多的管道供應(yīng)選擇，但由于北海油田老化導致國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量下降，歐洲對進口的依賴仍在增加。與此同時，主要受亞洲需求推動，跨洋運輸?shù)囊夯烊粴赓Q(mào)易正在加速擴張。

未來幾年，歐洲將不得不與印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉國的消費者爭奪液化天然氣。此外，由于一些亞洲國家剛剛開始使用天然氣發(fā)電，而不是污染更嚴重的煤炭和燃油，新的市場尚未開放。相比之下，歐洲收緊的氣候目標將導致更多可再生能源與天然氣競爭。

索默表示：“你可以將其與煤炭市場相比較，亞洲一直是歐洲煤炭價格的錨點。天然氣市場也正陷入同樣的情況?！?/span>

液化天然氣產(chǎn)量的增長主要發(fā)生在美國和俄羅斯等相對靠近歐洲的國家。但距離亞洲買家更近的地區(qū)新建電廠的速度現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)放緩，這一因素被視為促進了全球天然氣市場的互聯(lián)性。

能源咨詢公司Cornwall Insight表示:“英國和歐洲天然氣市場對全球液化天然氣價格的敏感性可能會增加。由于沒有在英國新建長期儲存設(shè)施的具體計劃，加上英國大陸架產(chǎn)量不斷下降，未來幾年可能會加大對液化天然氣的依賴?！?/span>

去年冬天液化天然氣價格的波動可能是未來形勢的先兆。德國默克爾能源咨詢公司(Merkel Energy consultancy)董事總經(jīng)理克里斯托弗 默克爾(Christoph Merkel)表示，隨著貿(mào)易機制的演變，這種超低溫燃料正成為一種全球性大宗商品，現(xiàn)在它正決定著天然氣的價格。

他表示:“液化天然氣價格已成為天然氣市場價。目前仍存在一些其他核心價格，但液化天然氣現(xiàn)在才是市場的驅(qū)動力?！?/span>

裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Asia’s LNG demand upends global gas pricing models

Asia’s emergence as global natural gas trading superpower will increasingly dictate market rates in Europe for a once-localized commodity that was simply linked to the price of oil.

The change was highlighted this winter, when freezing temperatures in the northern hemisphere meant liquefied natural gas tankers went to Asia, the biggest consumer of the fuel and where sellers could get record-high rates. That pushed up market levels in Europe and, conversely, is now acting as a price brake as winter ends and LNG supplies return to the region.

“Over the next couple of years European gas prices will become less and less Europe-centric, and more and more globally influenced,” said Andy Sommer, team leader for fundamental analysis and modeling at Swiss trader Axpo Solutions AG.

Even with its numerous pipeline-supply options, Europe’s import dependency is rising amid falling domestic production due to aging fields in the North Sea. At the same time, trade in LNG transportable across oceans is expanding faster, driven mainly by demand in Asia.

In coming years, Europe will have to compete for LNG with consumers inIndia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. In addition, new markets are yet to open as some Asian nations are just starting to use gas in power generation instead of more polluting coal and fuel oil. By contrast, Europe’s tightening climate targets will lead to more renewables squeezing out gas.

“You can compare it to the coal market,” Sommer said. “Asia was always an anchor for European coal prices. The situation is moving into the very same phenomenon in the gas market as well.”

LNG production is rising primarily in nations relatively close to Europe, such as the U.S. and Russia. But the addition of new plants in regions closer to Asian buyers has now slowed, a factor seen boosting the interconnectedness of gas markets worldwide.

“The susceptibility of UK and European gas markets to global LNG prices may be set to increase,” according to energy consultant Cornwall Insight. “With no concrete plans for new long-term storage facilities in the UK and declining UK Continental Shelf, it could point to a greater LNG dependency in the coming years.”

This past winter’s LNG price volatility may be a taste of things to come. The super-chilled fuel is becoming such a global commodity as trade mechanisms evolve, that it’s now dictating natural gas prices, according to Christoph Merkel, managing director of the Merkel Energy consultancy in Germany.

“LNG prices have become the gas market prices,” he said. “There are still some hub prices, but LNG is now the market’s driver.”