摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年美國(guó)頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量將攀升

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，摩根大通銀行3月12日表示，如果油價(jià)維持在當(dāng)前水平，目前的油價(jià)足以保證美國(guó)頁(yè)巖活動(dòng)在今年下半年增加。

摩根大通銀行分析師在由路透社報(bào)道的每周報(bào)告中說(shuō)，“在當(dāng)前的價(jià)格，大多數(shù)美國(guó)本土運(yùn)營(yíng)商是有利可圖的，這使得從大型上市公司到私人運(yùn)營(yíng)商的一大批運(yùn)營(yíng)商處于有利地位，可以在今年下半年增加業(yè)務(wù)，并在2022年為更高的業(yè)務(wù)量建立堅(jiān)實(shí)的勢(shì)頭?！?/span>

3月12日早間，美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格超過(guò)每桶65美元，截止美國(guó)東部時(shí)間上午7點(diǎn)，為每桶65.76美元。

在美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量在去年出現(xiàn)有史以來(lái)最大的年度下降以后，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖部門并不急于在今年增加產(chǎn)量，盡管今年油價(jià)上漲了30%。美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商，尤其是大型上市石油公司預(yù)計(jì)將堅(jiān)持資本紀(jì)律，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)股東，而不是提高產(chǎn)量。然而，規(guī)模較小的私營(yíng)石油公司正受益于油價(jià)上漲，因?yàn)樗鼈冑嵢‖F(xiàn)金的主要方式是增加產(chǎn)量。這可能會(huì)再次破壞歐佩克+的石油管理政策。

多數(shù)分析師認(rèn)為，大多數(shù)上市石油公司將遵守資本紀(jì)律。歐佩克+集團(tuán)似乎還押注于這樣的預(yù)期：美國(guó)頁(yè)巖這回將尋求更高的利潤(rùn)，而不是產(chǎn)量——不同于近幾年來(lái)的任何一次油價(jià)飆升——除了俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的小幅增加產(chǎn)量以外，歐佩克+集團(tuán)決定從4月份起不提高產(chǎn)量。

鑒于最近的高油價(jià)，摩根大通銀行預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)今年的平均石油日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1136萬(wàn)桶，略高于去年的1132萬(wàn)桶。

美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）仍認(rèn)為今年美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量將比去年略有下降，為1110萬(wàn)桶。然而，在本周發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望（STEO）報(bào)告中，由于原油價(jià)格預(yù)期將上漲，EIA預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)明年的石油日產(chǎn)量為1200萬(wàn)桶，比其2月STEO報(bào)告中的預(yù)測(cè)增加50萬(wàn)桶。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

JP Morgan: U.S. Shale Production Set To Climb

Current oil prices are high enough to warrant increased U.S. shale activity in the second half of the year if prices hold around these levels, according to JP Morgan.

“At current prices, most U.S. onshore operators are economic, leaving a vast group of operators, from large public companies to private players, in good position to ramp up activity in 2H21 and build solid momentum for higher volumes in 2022,” analysts at JP Morgan said in a weekly note as carried by Reuters.

Early on Friday, the spot U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was trading at over $65 per barrel, at $65.76 as of 7 a.m. ET.

Following the largest ever annual collapse in U.S. crude oil production in 2020, the U.S. shale patch is not rushing to ramp up production in 2021, even though oil prices have rallied by 30 percent this year. U.S. producers, especially large listed companies, are expected to stick to capital discipline and reward shareholders rather than ramp up production. However, smaller privately held oil firms are benefiting from higher oil prices as their primary way of generating cash is increased production. This could spoil the oil management policy of the OPEC+ group again.

Most analysts believe that most public companies will stick to discipline. OPEC+ also seems to have gambled on expectations that U.S. shale will look at higher profits instead of production this time - unlike in any of the previous oil price spikes in recent years - when it decided not to raise production from April, except for small increases for Russia and Kazakhstan.

In view of the recent high prices, JP Morgan now expects U.S. oil production to average 11.36 million bpd in 2021, slightly up from 11.32 million bpd last year.

The EIA still sees U.S. crude oil production this year slightly down from last year, at 11.1 million bpd. However, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook published this week, EIA expects U.S. production in 2022 at 12.0 million bpd, up by 500,000 bpd compared to the February STEO forecast because of higher expected crude oil prices.