EIA：歐佩克舉措將減少全球原油庫存和重振美國頁巖鉆探

據(jù)世界石油華盛頓報道，在3月4日的會議上，歐佩克+宣布，除了俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦相對少量的增產(chǎn)以外，其他成員國將在4月份繼續(xù)削減原油產(chǎn)量。這個宣告還指出，沙特阿拉伯將維持其額外的100萬桶/天的自愿減產(chǎn)，直到4月底。今年2月，歐佩克+減產(chǎn)，加上美國供應(yīng)中斷，導致全球石油庫存每月減少，美國能源信息署(EIA)估計全球石油庫存每天減少370萬桶，這是自2002年12月以來最大的月度減少。在3月初歐佩克+會議召開前，布倫特原油期貨價格平均為63美元/桶， 歐佩克+的宣告進一步加大了原油價格的上行壓力。在減產(chǎn)協(xié)議宣布后的幾天里，即月布倫特原油期貨的盤中交易價格一度超過了70美元/桶，這不僅是因為協(xié)議宣布之后的幾天，還因為3月7日沙特阿拉伯的拉斯塔努拉石油設(shè)施遭到襲擊。根據(jù)EIA 3月份的短期能源展望(STEO)報告，由于歐佩克+持續(xù)減產(chǎn)，EIA預計今年第一季度和第二季度的全球石油和其他液體庫存將每天分別減少180萬桶和60萬桶。

在去年12月3日的會議上，歐佩克+宣布將把今年1月的產(chǎn)量增長從200萬桶/天限制在50萬桶/天。在今年1月5日的會議上，歐佩克+宣布將維持1月份的產(chǎn)量水平直到第一季度結(jié)束。此外，沙特阿拉伯決定在2月和3月單方面增加100萬桶/天的減產(chǎn)。自歐佩克+去年12月宣布增產(chǎn)以來，該組織一直致力于維持更靈活的產(chǎn)量目標，以應(yīng)對全球需求的復蘇。這一承諾導致了產(chǎn)量目標的定期變化，導致EIA對今年歐佩克產(chǎn)量預測的修訂。自去年5月首次減產(chǎn)以來，EIA將今年歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量預測下調(diào)了160萬桶，至2680萬桶。

歐佩克+ 4月份持續(xù)減產(chǎn)表明，即使需求繼續(xù)增長，短期內(nèi)供應(yīng)仍將受到限制。因此，EIA預計，為滿足全球不斷增長的原油需求，進一步的庫存減少將支撐原油價格，至少到4月底。在2月份的STEO報告中，EIA預測歐佩克將在4月份開始放松減產(chǎn)，但在3月4日的宣告之后，EIA現(xiàn)在預計減產(chǎn)將在5月份開始放松，這在3月份的STEO報告中得到了反映。EIA預計，5月份歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量將增加到2660萬桶，比1-4月的平均日產(chǎn)量增加150萬桶。

在3月份的STEO報告中，EIA預測今年3月和4月的布倫特原油均價將在67美元/桶。EIA繼續(xù)預計，隨著石油市場變得更加平衡，未來幾個月原油價格將出現(xiàn)下行壓力，預計布倫特原油價格將在今年下半年降至平均58美元/桶。EIA預測，今年3月和4月，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)的平均價格為63.5美元/桶，今年下半年將降至55美元/桶。市場對未來價格不確定性的預期反映在WTI期貨和期權(quán)的價值上，它可以用來確定一個隱含市場衍生的95%置信區(qū)間。截至今年3月4日，今年6月WTI合同的期貨和期權(quán)合約價值分別確定在44美元/桶和83美元/桶的下限置信區(qū)間。隨著時間的推移，95%的置信區(qū)間大幅擴大

EIA對油價下行壓力和原油供應(yīng)增加的預測存在幾個關(guān)鍵的不確定性。根據(jù)COVID-19疫苗接種率以及旅行和就業(yè)狀況恢復到COVID-19前水平的程度，實際需求恢復的速度仍是需求方面的一個重要不確定性。與此同時，歐佩克+的減產(chǎn)將在4月后繼續(xù)，這仍然是供應(yīng)方面的一個不確定性來源，特別是因為原油價格的上漲將鼓勵歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的參與者在以后的會議上同意增產(chǎn)，或放松對現(xiàn)有協(xié)議的遵守。最后，美國致密油產(chǎn)量對油價上漲的反應(yīng)也不確定。

EIA預測今年晚些時候和明年油價會走低，這在一定程度上取決于美國頁巖產(chǎn)量對近期油價高企的反應(yīng)，正如EIA 3月3日在《石油》雜志上討論的那樣，這表明生產(chǎn)商在近幾個月一直在增加鉆機和完井。最近原油價格的上漲意味著更多的美國致密油探區(qū)變得有利可圖。EIA預計，今年下半年美國原油平均日產(chǎn)量將達到1140萬桶，到明年將升至日均1200萬桶。EIA估計，如果油價保持在當前水平，美國致密油產(chǎn)量的增長將導致全球石油庫存在明年初持續(xù)增長。然而，在給定的價格水平上，生產(chǎn)商可能不會像過去那樣配置資本，這將進一步增加EIA對原油產(chǎn)量和價格預測的不確定性。

與此同時，高油價也鼓勵歐佩克+放松目前大量備用原油產(chǎn)能的生產(chǎn)目標，如果歐佩克+成員國決定增產(chǎn)，這些備用產(chǎn)能可以投入使用。在某種程度上，短期內(nèi)價格上漲越多，未來價格下行的壓力就越大。

李峻 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

OPEC’s plan will reduce global crude stocks and revive U.S. shale drilling, says EIA

At their March 4 meeting, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) announced they would maintain crude oil production cuts through April, except for relatively small production increases from Russia and Kazakhstan. The announcement also noted that Saudi Arabia would maintain its additional 1.0 million barrel per day (b/d) voluntary production cut through the end of April. In February 2021, OPEC+ cuts, combined with supply disruptions in the United States, contributed to monthly global petroleum inventory withdrawals that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates totaled 3.7 million b/d, the largest monthly withdrawal since December 2002. The Brent crude oil futures price averaged $63 per barrel (b) in early March leading up to the OPEC+ meeting, and the OPEC+ announcement put further upward pressure on crude oil prices. Front-month Brent futures briefly surpassed $70/b in intraday trading in the days following the announcement, not only because of the announcement but also because of an attack on the Ras Tanura oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on March 7. As a result of the extension of OPEC+ production cuts, EIA expects draws on global petroleum and other liquids inventories of 1.8 million b/d and 0.6 million b/d in the first and second quarters of 2021, respectively, according to EIA’s March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

At its meeting on December 3, 2020, OPEC+ announced it would limit its production increase in January 2021 from 2.0 million b/d to only 0.5 million b/d. At its meeting on January 5, 2021, OPEC+ announced that it would maintain January production levels through the first quarter. In addition, Saudi Arabia unilaterally contributed 1.0 million b/d of additional cuts for February and March. Since the OPEC+ December announcement, the group has committed to maintaining more flexible production targets in response to the global demand recovery. This commitment has contributed to regular changes in output targets, resulting in revisions to EIA’s 2021 OPEC production forecast. Since the initial production cuts in May 2020, EIA has reduced its annual average 2021 OPEC crude oil production forecast by 1.6 million b/d to 26.8 million b/d

The sustained OPEC+ production curtailment through April suggests that supply will remain constrained in the near term, even as demand continues to increase. As a result, EIA expects that further inventory withdrawals to meet rising crude oil demand will support crude oil prices through at least the end of April. In its February STEO, EIA forecast that OPEC would have begun relaxing production cuts in April, but following the March 4 announcement, EIA now expects production cuts to relax beginning in May, which is reflected in the March STEO. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will increase to an average of 26.6 million b/d in May, which would be an increase of 1.5 million b/d compared with the January–April average.

In the March STEO, EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $67/b in March and April 2021. As a result of EIA’s continued expectation of downward crude oil price pressures emerging in the coming months as the oil market becomes more balanced, Brent is forecast to fall to an average of $58/b during the second half of 2021. EIA forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $63.50/b in both March and April 2021 and to fall to $55/b in the second half of 2021. Market expectations of future price uncertainty is reflected in the value of WTI futures and options, which can be used to determine an implicit market-derived 95% confidence interval. As of March 4, 2021, the value of futures and options contracts determined the lower and upper bound confidence intervals of $44/b and $83/b, respectively, for the June 2021 WTI contract. The 95% confidence interval widens considerably over time

EIA’s forecast of downward oil price pressure and increased crude oil availability has several key uncertainties. The speed of actual demand recovery, based on COVID-19 vaccination rates and the degree to which travel and employment conditions return to pre-COVID levels, remains an important uncertainty on the demand side. At the same time, the degree to which OPEC+ production cuts will continue after April remains a source of uncertainty on the supply side, especially because increasing crude oil prices will encourage OPEC+ participants to agree to production increases in later meetings or to relax compliance with the existing agreement. Finally, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to higher oil prices is also uncertain.

EIA’s forecast of lower oil prices later in 2021 and 2022 depends in part on the responsiveness of U.S. shale production to recent high prices, which, as discussed in EIA’s March 3 This Week in Petroleum, suggests producers have been adding rigs and completing wells in recent months. The recent increase in crude oil prices means that more U.S. tight oil acreage is profitable. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will average 11.4 million b/d during the second half of 2021 and rise to an average of 12.0 million b/d in 2022. EIA assesses that if oil prices were to remain at current levels, growing U.S tight oil production would cause global oil inventories to grow persistently by early 2022. However, producers may not deploy capital in the same way they have in the past at given price levels, adding further uncertainty to EIA’s crude oil production and price forecasts.

At the same time, high prices also encourage OPEC+ to relax production targets given current, very large amounts of spare crude oil production capacity, which is available to come online if OPEC+ member countries decide to increase production. To some degree, then, the more prices rise in the near term, the more future downward price pressures they bring.