經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖石油價(jià)格穩(wěn)定在每桶70美元左右

據(jù)3月14日路透社報(bào)道，周五石油價(jià)格接近每桶70美元，主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)的減產(chǎn)和對(duì)下半年需求增長(zhǎng)的樂(lè)觀情緒支持下，布倫特原油價(jià)格下跌41美分，至每桶69.22美元，跌幅0.6%。

美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油也下跌41美分，至每桶65.61美元。

布倫特原油和美國(guó)原油價(jià)格周一觸及13個(gè)月高位，連續(xù)7周上漲，本周基本持平。

伊利諾伊州加里納的里特布施和 Associates總裁吉姆?里特布希表示：“白宮救助計(jì)劃和新冠肺炎疫苗積極報(bào)道，繼續(xù)提高對(duì)石油等高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的需求?！?/span>

歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)今年石油需求將在下半年出現(xiàn)更強(qiáng)勁的增加。歐佩克、俄羅斯及其盟友上周決定維持產(chǎn)量限制幾乎不變。

根據(jù)能源服務(wù)公司貝克休斯的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)鉆井公司也在減產(chǎn)，自去年11月以來(lái)首次削減了石油和天然氣鉆井平臺(tái)的數(shù)量。

PVM分析師表示：“今年下半年強(qiáng)于預(yù)期的反彈意味著，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求前景正在擺脫新冠肺炎疫情帶來(lái)的影響。”加拿大皇家銀行資本分析師表示，夏季汽油價(jià)格基本面是近10年來(lái)最樂(lè)觀的。

美國(guó)是全球最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)，上周美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存大幅減少，因德克薩斯州的冬季暴風(fēng)雪擾亂了煉油生產(chǎn)。

摩根大通分析師預(yù)計(jì)，油價(jià)持續(xù)走高將鼓勵(lì)美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商增加產(chǎn)量，這最終可能打壓油價(jià)。他們預(yù)計(jì)，今年美國(guó)平均石油日產(chǎn)量為1,136萬(wàn)桶，而2020年為1,320萬(wàn)桶。

本周早些時(shí)候，政府下調(diào)了2021年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量的預(yù)期產(chǎn)量。原油日產(chǎn)量減少16萬(wàn)桶至1,115萬(wàn)桶，降幅小于此前預(yù)估的下降29萬(wàn)桶。

馮于榮 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil settles near $70/bbl on hopes of recovering demand

Oil settled near $70 a barrel on Friday, supported by production cuts by major oil producers and optimism about a demand recovery in the second half of the year.

Benchmark Brent settled down 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.22 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also ended down 41 cents to $65.61 a barrel.

Brent and U.S. crude ended the week roughly flat after prices touched a 13-month high on Monday, following seven straight weeks of gains.

“Demand for risky assets such as oil continues to be buoyed by the White House relief package and an almost daily flow of optimistic vaccine headlines,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast a stronger oil demand recovery this year, weighted to the second half. OPEC, Russia and its allies decided last week to maintain its output curbs almost unchanged.

U.S. drillers are also holding back, cutting the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time since November, according to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes Co.

“The stronger-than-expected rebound in the second half of this year implies that the global economy and hence oil demand outlook is close to shaking off its COVID woes,” PVM analysts said.

RBC Capital analysts said the fundamentals for summer gasoline was the most bullish in nearly a decade.

The United States, world’s largest oil consumer, saw a big draw on U.S. gasoline stocks last week as the winter storm in Texas disrupted refining output.

Sustained higher oil prices are expected to encourage U.S. producers to increase output, which could eventually weigh on prices, JPMorgan analysts wrote.

JPMorgan expects U.S. oil output to average 11.36 million barrels per day this year compared with 11.32 million bpd in 2020.

Earlier this week, the government revised down 2021’s decline expected in U.S. crude production. Output is seen falling 160,000 bpd to 11.15 million bpd, a smaller decrease than its previous monthly forecast for a 290,000-bpd drop.