市場預(yù)計原油價格仍會飆升

據(jù)3月15日CNBC報道，一位分析師表示，原油價格正走向2014年以來的最高水平。Piper Sandler的克雷格?約翰遜(Craig Johnson)上周五在接受CNBC“貿(mào)易國家”(Trading Nation)節(jié)目采訪時表示，能源板塊今年迄今為止的漲幅接近40%，創(chuàng)下了歷史上最好的季度表現(xiàn)，油價顯然也有一些上行空間。

上周五，美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格下跌0.5%，至每桶65.60美元左右。“與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)相比，XLE的表現(xiàn)出現(xiàn)了多年的逆轉(zhuǎn)。顯然，這里出現(xiàn)了一些非常積極的趨勢。這些都是開始顯現(xiàn)的較長期主題和趨勢?！?/span>

Johnson表示，一個小公司可以從這些趨勢中獲得巨大的利益。他指著勘探和生產(chǎn)公司Cimarex Energy的一份圖表表示:“不要忘了中小型股，因為它們也在參與行動。在我們看來，要回到2018年的高點(diǎn)，可能還有40%以上的上行空間?！?/span>

Cimarex股價周五收于每桶65.14美元，跌幅近2%。如果股價在上述水平上再漲40%，該股將跌至每股91.20美元左右。

由于歐佩克可能至少在夏季之前保持產(chǎn)量穩(wěn)定，Laffer Tengler Investments的Nancy Tengler也預(yù)期油價會飆升：“在10月份之前，我們不會看到石油供應(yīng)增加，這意味著油價可以很容易地從現(xiàn)在開始上漲。我們的預(yù)期是在夏季達(dá)到每桶80美元左右，因此，大多數(shù)石油股票是看漲的?！?/span>

王佳晶 摘譯自 CNBC

原文如下：

Crude to $100: Trader makes the case for a spike in oil prices

Crude oil prices are on a path to highs not seen since 2014, according to one chart analyst.

As the energy sector tracks for its best quarter on record with a year-to-date gain of nearly 40%, there’s “clearly some upside” for oil prices as well, Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices slid half of 1% to around $65.60 a barrel on Friday.

“I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here,” said Johnson, his firm’s senior technical research analyst.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is also showing signs of life after a difficult 2020, he said.

“There is clearly a double bottom that has been made and even a higher low that has been made,” he said, citing a chart of the 23-stock exchange-traded fund.

“We’re getting a multi-year reversal in terms of the performance of the XLE compared to the S&P 500. Clearly, there are some very positive trends happening here,” he said. “These are longer-term themes and trends that are starting to unfold.”

One smaller name could see outsized benefits from those trends, Johnson said.

“Don’t forget about the mid- and small-cap stocks, too, because they’re also participating in the action,” he said, pointing to a chart of exploration and production company Cimarex Energy.

“To us, it looks like you could have more than 40% upside to get back to the old highs in 2018,” he said.

Cimarex shares closed nearly 2% lower at $65.14 on Friday. A 40% run from those levels would bring the stock to around $91.20 a share.

With OPEC likely to keep production steady until at least the summer, Laffer Tengler Investments’ Nancy Tengler was also expecting a surge in oil prices.

“We don’t see any supply increase until October, which means the price of oil can run pretty handily from here. Our expectations are somewhere around $80 a barrel in the summer, so, that’s bullish for most of the oil stocks,” she said in the same “Trading Nation” interview.