石油和天然氣行業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)和趨勢

據(jù)福布斯3月11日報道，目前，油氣行業(yè)面臨三大挑戰(zhàn)。第一，以更低的成本和更少的排放生產(chǎn)更多的能源。當(dāng)前，全球人口正在增加，新冠肺炎疫情后的能源需求不僅會恢復(fù)，而且會增加。與此同時，世界需要更清潔的能源，因此石油和天然氣公司必須以更少的排放供應(yīng)這種能源。這是一項艱巨的任務(wù)，但許多組織正在積極應(yīng)對。只要看看工業(yè)、大學(xué)和政府為減少排放所做的工作，你就會看到他們正在為生產(chǎn)更清潔的能源做出巨大努力。這需要時間，但到2050年或更早達(dá)到凈零排放的軌跡是明確的。油氣公司需要在降低成本的前提下繼續(xù)努力。投資者正在要求他們在石油和天然氣公司的投資獲得更高的回報。雖然油氣公司不能控制產(chǎn)品的價格，但他們可以控制每年的支出。2015年以來的趨勢是整個行業(yè)在降低成本基礎(chǔ)方面取得的顯著成就之一。

第二個挑戰(zhàn)是，為了滿足需求，油氣行業(yè)每年需要投資約5000億美元，尤其困難的是資本成本上升帶來的強(qiáng)勁逆風(fēng)。自2015年以來，油氣行業(yè)一直投資不足，特別是在上游業(yè)務(wù)。一旦全球閑置產(chǎn)能枯竭，就需要重新投資，不僅要維持石油和天然氣的產(chǎn)量，而且要實際增加石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量，以滿足世界各地客戶的需求。這一挑戰(zhàn)將很難實現(xiàn)，如果不能有效地開發(fā)或重新開發(fā)供應(yīng)，以與需求保持同步，我們將看到一段時間的石油和天然氣價格上漲。

對油氣公司來說，第三個挑戰(zhàn)是如何展示不同的、持久的現(xiàn)金流。大量投資者逃離了石油和天然氣行業(yè)。在過去，許多石油和天然氣公司以增長的名義透支現(xiàn)金流。對絕大多數(shù)公司來說，情況不同了。不過，投資者的信心尚未恢復(fù)，能源公司需要表明，它們有資本紀(jì)律，并將持續(xù)向股東返還資金。這種趨勢已經(jīng)開始但疫情及其影響降低了需求，推遲了所有優(yōu)良措施的積極影響，石油和天然氣公司正在做的是按照它們的方式來降低成本,以一致的和可預(yù)測的收益回報股東。隨著世界從疫情中恢復(fù)過來，從他們的報告中可以明顯看出該行業(yè)的良好表現(xiàn)

那么，未來12到24個月會看到什么樣的趨勢呢?油氣公司將繼續(xù)降低成本、降低碳排放和降低風(fēng)險。降低成本需要不懈地提高價值鏈各個方面的效率。降低碳排放要求一流的操作實踐以及持續(xù)的技術(shù)開發(fā)和部署。油氣公司可以通過更好的儲層模型、更好的可視化等手段來降低技術(shù)風(fēng)險。這三種趨勢很可能會在未來兩年持續(xù)很長時間。它們已經(jīng)成為企業(yè)在今天的能源市場中茁壯成長和生存的必要條件。最后，除了應(yīng)對上述挑戰(zhàn)所需的硬技能外，油氣公司還需要不斷培養(yǎng)溝通、協(xié)作和創(chuàng)新等軟技能。在某些方面，軟技能的持續(xù)開發(fā)和成功應(yīng)用是最難的部分，但它們是成功所必需的。

未來幾十年，世界將繼續(xù)使用石油和天然氣。當(dāng)今和未來的消費者不僅需要能源，而且需要清潔、廉價和可靠的能源。油氣行業(yè)可以應(yīng)對這些挑戰(zhàn)，也必須與客戶、政府和大學(xué)合作。到2050年實現(xiàn)凈零排放是可能的，但大家都需要盡自己的一份力量。

王佳晶 摘譯自 福布斯

原文如下：

Challenges And Trends For The Oil And Gas Industry

There are three primary challenges facing the oil and gas industry exist today. The first is to produce more energy at lower cost with less emissions. The global population is increasing, and energy demand post COVID-19 will not only recover, but also increase. At the same time, the world is demanding cleaner energy so oil and gas companies must supply this energy with less emissions. This is a tough task, but many groups are rising to the occasion. Just look at the work being done by industry, universities and governments to lower emissions, and you will see that a very large effort is being made to produce cleaner energy. It will take time, but the trajectory is clear to get to net zero emissions by 2050 or sooner. Oil and gas companies need to continue their good work at lowering costs. Investors are demanding better returns on their investment in oil and gas companies. While companies cannot control the price of their product, they can control the amount of money they spend annually. The trend since 2015 is one of remarkable achievement in lowering the cost base of the entire industry.

The second challenge is for the oil and gas industry to collectively invest approximately $500 billion each year just to keep up with demand. What makes this particularly difficult is the strong headwind of rising capital costs. Since 2015 the oil and gas industry has underinvested, especially in the upstream portion of the business. Once the global spare capacity is depleted there will be a need to reinvest in not only maintaining, but actually growing oil and gas production to satisfy the needs of customers around the world. This challenge will be difficult to achieve and if it is not handled effectively to develop or re-develop supply to stay in-step with demand, we will see a period of higher oil and gas prices.

The third challenge is for oil and gas companies to demonstrate differential and durable cash flows. There’s been a large number of investors fleeing the oil and gas sector. In the past, many oil and gas companies outspent their cash flows in the name of growth. That is no longer the case for the vast majority of companies. Still, investor confidence has not yet returned. Energy companies need to show that they have capital discipline and will consistently return money to their shareholders. This trend has already begun but the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on lowering demand has delayed the positive impact of all the good work oil and gas companies have done and are doing to keep costs down and spend within their means while rewarding shareholders with consistent and predictable returns. As the world recovers from the pandemic, evidence of the industry’s good work will be obvious from the returns they report.

So what trends we will see for the next 12 to 24 months? These are very clear. Oil and gas companies will continue to lower costs, lower carbon emissions and lower risk. Lowering cost requires the relentless pursuit of improving efficiencies in every aspect of the value chain. Lowering carbon emissions mandates best in class operational practices as well as continued technology development and deployment. Oil and gas companies can lower technical risk with better reservoir models, better visualization and more. These three trends will likely continue well beyond the next two years. They have become requirements for businesses to thrive and survive in today’s energy market. Lastly, besides all the hard skills that are needed to meet the challenges outlined here, oil and gas companies will need to continually develop the softer skills of communication, collaboration and innovation. In some ways, the continued development and successful utilization of soft skills is the hardest part of all, yet they are absolutely required for success.

The world will be using oil and gas for decades to come. The customer of today and tomorrow will demand not only access to energy, but that it is clean, affordable and reliable. The oil and gas industry can meet these challenges and must to do that in partnership with customers, governments and universities. Reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is possible, but we all need to do our part.