石油和大宗商品價(jià)格飆升 利弊互存

據(jù)彭博社3月11日?qǐng)?bào)道，你可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，世界躡手躡腳地走出新冠肺炎疫情，對(duì)各國(guó)政府和經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō)可能只會(huì)是個(gè)好消息。然而，隨之而來(lái)的能源、金屬和農(nóng)作物價(jià)格飆升，突顯出一些國(guó)家的優(yōu)勢(shì)和一些國(guó)家的脆弱性。

自11月初以來(lái)，石油價(jià)格已經(jīng)上漲了75%，主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體為民眾接種了疫苗，并將因疫情而關(guān)閉的工廠、停飛的飛機(jī)重新啟動(dòng)。用于汽車、洗衣機(jī)和風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)等各種產(chǎn)品的銅，目前的交易價(jià)格水平達(dá)到了10年前的水平。5月份以來(lái)，食品價(jià)格每個(gè)月都在上漲。

這對(duì)出口商來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)福音。對(duì)于沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯等能源巨頭來(lái)說(shuō)，大量資金的涌入是可喜的，因?yàn)樗鼈兠媾R著國(guó)內(nèi)的挑戰(zhàn)。

交易總是有兩面性的。一些依賴進(jìn)口的國(guó)家正感受到債券和外匯市場(chǎng)的壓力。不斷上漲的燃油價(jià)格讓巴西國(guó)家石油公司總裁失去了工作，已促使世界第三大原油進(jìn)口國(guó)印度呼吁歐佩克+提高石油產(chǎn)量，并將土耳其的通脹率推高至15%以上。

高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和華爾街一些競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手正在談?wù)撔碌拇笞谏唐贰俺?jí)周期”。這讓人們擔(dān)心，未來(lái)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)更具破壞性的通脹，而富裕國(guó)家也無(wú)法幸免。

英國(guó)收回了提高汽油稅的決定，以避免惹怒疲憊不堪的司機(jī)。在美國(guó)，德克薩斯的石油鉆探者和玉米種植帶的農(nóng)民可能會(huì)從中受益，但包括科技界億萬(wàn)富翁在內(nèi)的一些人正受到壓榨。埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)懇請(qǐng)礦商挖出更多的鎳，他需要這種金屬為特斯拉公司(Tesla Inc.)的電動(dòng)汽車制造電池。

在油價(jià)高漲中獲益的贏家:

去年的封鎖和大宗商品價(jià)格下跌使澳大利亞遭受巨大沖擊，該國(guó)經(jīng)歷了近30年來(lái)的首次衰退。但政府預(yù)計(jì)2021年會(huì)有意外收獲。去年12月，該國(guó)最大出口商品鐵礦石的銷量創(chuàng)下歷史新高，而小麥的銷量正接近這一水平，養(yǎng)牛戶也在努力跟上對(duì)牛肉的需求。

自去年11月底以來(lái)，澳元的表現(xiàn)一直好于其他主要貨幣，兌美元升值5%。

作為全球最大的銅生產(chǎn)國(guó)，智利的相對(duì)實(shí)力在金融市場(chǎng)上也很明顯。比索是過(guò)去3個(gè)月里唯一對(duì)美元升值的拉美主要貨幣，智利股市也是全球最活躍的股市之一。

隨著銅價(jià)近十年來(lái)首次突破每磅4美元，智利的財(cái)政狀況正在改善。2月份銅出口為39億美元，較上月增長(zhǎng)42%。

贊比亞也是如此，該國(guó)80%的出口收入都依賴于銅。疫情爆發(fā)后，該國(guó)成為非洲第一個(gè)對(duì)歐洲債券違約的國(guó)家，該國(guó)迫切需要資金。

在巴克萊指數(shù)跟蹤的大約75個(gè)新興市場(chǎng)中，贊比亞的美元債務(wù)今年漲幅最大。

去年，所有石油國(guó)家都遭受了損失，但伊拉克尤為突出。據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù)，該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑約11%，跌幅超過(guò)了幾乎所有其他主要石油出口國(guó)。這一局勢(shì)給歐佩克帶來(lái)了麻煩，伊拉克是歐佩克的第二大石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。包括沙特阿拉伯在內(nèi)的其他成員國(guó)批評(píng)巴格達(dá)在歐佩克試圖支撐油價(jià)時(shí)未能充分減產(chǎn)。

隨著原油市場(chǎng)的回暖，伊拉克的月度財(cái)政收入從2020年第二季度的約30億美元攀升至50億美元。雖然仍遠(yuǎn)低于平衡預(yù)算所需的水平，但有明顯的喘息之機(jī)。

在油價(jià)高漲中不利的輸家:

作為全球最大的小麥買家和石油凈進(jìn)口國(guó)，每當(dāng)大宗商品價(jià)格回升時(shí)，埃及都會(huì)遭受重創(chuàng)。

到目前為止，埃及設(shè)法控制住了通脹。埃及正試圖通過(guò)在市場(chǎng)上購(gòu)買更多的對(duì)沖合約來(lái)保護(hù)自己免受油價(jià)上漲的影響，而外國(guó)投資者仍在購(gòu)買本國(guó)債券。但根據(jù)彭博社對(duì)分析師的調(diào)查，今年該國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(gdp)將僅反彈2.9%，約為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期水平的一半。

王佳晶 編譯自 彭博社

The Winners and Losers From Surging Oil and Commodity Prices

You’d think a world tiptoeing its way out of the coronavirus pandemic might only be good news for governments and economies. Yet the consequent surge in the price of energy, metals and crops is highlighting the strengths of some and the vulnerabilities of others.

Oil has climbed 75% since the start of November as major economies vaccinate their populations and reopen after the pandemic shut down factories and grounded planes. Copper, used in everything from cars to washing machines and wind turbines, is trading at levels last seen a decade ago. Food prices have jumped every month since May.

That’s been a boon for exporters. The flood of cash is a welcome relief for energy behemoths such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, whose leaderships have domestic challenges to contend with.

But there are always two sides to a trade. Some countries that depend on imports are feeling the squeeze in bond and currency markets. Rising fuel prices cost the head of Brazil’s state oil company his job. They’ve led India—the world’s third-largest crude importer—to call on the OPEC+ cartel to raise oil production and pushed Turkey’s inflation rate above 15%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and some Wall Street rivals are talking of a new commodities “supercycle.” That’s raising the specter of more damaging inflation down the line—and richer countries aren’t immune, either.

The U.K. government backtracked on raising gasoline tax so as not to rile lockdown-weary drivers. In the U.S., Texan oil drillers and Corn Belt farmers may be benefiting, though others including tech billionaires are being squeezed. Elon Musk has pleaded with miners to dig up more nickel, a metal he needs to make batteries for Tesla Inc.’s electric vehicles.

Winners

Last year’s lockdowns and commodity downturn stung Australia, which experienced its first recession in almost three decades. But the government can expect a windfall in 2021. Sales of iron ore, its top export, hit a record in December, while those of wheat are edging toward the same level and cattle farmers are struggling to keep up with demand for beef.

The Australian dollar has performed better than any other major currency since the end of November, strengthening 5% against the U.S. dollar.

The relative strength of Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, has also been evident in financial markets. The peso is the only major Latin American currency to appreciate against the dollar over the past three months and Chile’s stock market has been among the world’s most buoyant.

With prices of the red metal rising above $4 a pound for the first time in about a decade, Chile’s finances are improving. Copper exports stood at $3.9 billion in February, up 42% from the month before.

Similar can be said for Zambia, which relies on copper for almost 80% of export earnings. The country has been desperate for money after it became the first in Africa to default on its Eurobonds following the onset of the pandemic.

The country bought the local operations of Glencore Plc in January at what’s looking more and more like a favorable price and global investors have started to become more bullish. Zambia’s dollar debt has rallied the most this year among the roughly 75 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg Barclays indexes.

All petrostates suffered last year, but Iraq stood out. Its economy sank around 11%, more than that of almost any other major oil exporter, according to the International Monetary Fund. The government couldn’t pay teachers and civil servants on time and Iraqis took to the streets to rail against power cuts, dilapidated hospitals, crumbling roads and a lack of jobs.

The situation caused problems for OPEC, of which Iraq is the second-biggest oil producer. Other members, including Saudi Arabia, criticized Baghdad for failing to cut output enough as the cartel tried to bolster prices.

As the crude market picked up, Iraq’s monthly fiscal revenue climbed to $5 billion from about $3 billion in the second quarter of 2020. They’re still far below what’s needed to balance the state budget, but there’s clear respite.

Losers

As the world’s biggest buyer of wheat and a net oil importer, Egypt suffers badly whenever commodity prices pick up. It’s also politically sensitive because millions of people depend on subsidized bread. The Arab Spring uprisings a decade ago were triggered in part by increasing food costs and swept long-standing ruler Hosni Mubarak from power.

So far, President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi’s government has managed to keep a lid on inflation. Egypt is trying to protect itself against higher oil costs by buying more hedging contracts in the market, and foreign investors are still purchasing local bonds. But gross domestic product will rebound just 2.9% this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, around half the level expected for the global economy.