油價可能漲到每桶100美元嗎？

據(jù)今日油價3月10日報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)在2月份的《短期能源展望》(Short Term Energy Outlook, STEO)中預(yù)測，2月的全球石油消費量為9670萬桶/天。然而，石油供應(yīng)要低得多，只有9360萬桶/天，其中310萬桶/天的供應(yīng)來自原油和成品油庫存。以歷史標準衡量，300萬桶/天的持續(xù)庫存消耗是很大的，在這種情況下，預(yù)計油價將上漲。

EIA預(yù)計需求將繼續(xù)以良好的速度復(fù)蘇，直至2021年年中。7月份全球石油消費預(yù)計為9820萬桶/天(但仍比“正?！彼降图s400萬桶/天)。這一增長的需求由兩個來源助推，一是巴西，二是歐佩克。市場可能會接受巴西原油產(chǎn)量增長的事實，可接受的時間也會推遲一兩個月，關(guān)鍵的問題是歐佩克的產(chǎn)量供應(yīng)決定。

EIA使用的是需求驅(qū)動模型，這意味著歐佩克將被動地增加產(chǎn)量以滿足需求，從而保持油價在較低的水平。但歐佩克為什么要這么做呢?如果歐佩克僅僅維持目前的產(chǎn)量水平，到年中，全球石油供應(yīng)將短缺350萬桶/天。350萬桶/天的缺口(占全球消費的3.6%)是很大的，將迅速消耗剩余的過剩庫存，只剩下油價在供需之間進行調(diào)停，而此時，隨著疫情的結(jié)束，全球經(jīng)濟正顯示出強勁勢頭。換句話說，在未來幾個月，消費者將準備好爭奪現(xiàn)有的石油，這應(yīng)該會推動油價大幅上漲。

這就是做出“油價將達到每桶100美元”判斷的原因。

這里有一些重要的注意事項。在許多情況下，運營商必須在知道石油確切價格之前就承諾生產(chǎn)原油。在這種情況下，歐佩克可以自行決定讓油價上漲并增加產(chǎn)量。這使歐佩克對油價有了很大的控制和靈活性。當(dāng)然，油價上漲更好，但如果歐佩克認為市場過熱，可以在相當(dāng)短的時間內(nèi)增加更多的石油，這將鼓勵歐佩克測試更高的價格水平。

很難知道什么時候供需將達到平衡。不過，現(xiàn)在是歐佩克在中短期內(nèi)真正賺錢的最佳機會。如果讓機會溜走，他們就是傻瓜。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

How Oil Could Go To $100 Per Barrel

In its February Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts this month's world oil consumption at 96.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). The oil supply, however, is much lower, only 93.6 mbpd, with the difference of 3.1 mbpd of necessity being drawn from crude oil and refined product inventories. By historical standards, a sustained draw of 3 mbpd is large, and we would expect prices to be rising under such circumstances.

The EIA sees demand continuing to recover at a good pace to mid-year, with July world oil consumption forecast at 98.2 mbpd (but still about 4 mbpd below 'normal'). This incremental demand is being materially supplied by two sources, Brazil and OPEC. We might accept Brazil's crude oil production growth as given, allowing that the timing might be off by a month or two. The pivotal question is instead OPEC's intentions.

The EIA uses a volume (or demand) driven model, implying that OPEC will passively increase production to meet demand, and thereby keep oil prices low. But why would OPEC do this? If OPEC simply maintained current production levels, the world would be 3.5 mbpd short of supply by mid-year. A shortfall of 3.5 mbpd -- 3.6% of global consumption -- is a lot. It would rapidly drain remaining excess inventories, leaving only oil prices to mediate between supply and demand just as the world economy is showing both strength and momentum as the pandemic ends. In other words, in the coming months consumers will be prepared to compete for the available barrels of oil, and that should push oil prices up sharply.

That's the '$100 / barrel' thesis.

A few important notes and caveats. In many cases, operators must commit to producing barrels before they know what the price will be. In this case, OPEC can let prices rise and add barrels at its discretion. This provides OPEC a great deal of control and flexibility over oil prices. Certainly, higher oil prices are better, but more barrels can be added on fairly short notice if OPEC believes the market is overheating. This should encourage OPEC to test ever higher price levels.

It is hard to know where the balance comes out. Nevertheless, now is OPEC's best opportunity to make real money in the short to medium term. They would be fools to let the opportunity slip by.