到2035年天然氣將在化石燃料中表現(xiàn)最強(qiáng)勁增長

據(jù)阿納多盧新聞3月10日新聞消息稱，全球管理咨詢公司麥肯錫公司合伙人Alessandro Agosta在接受阿納多盧獨(dú)家采訪時(shí)表示，由于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體能源需求的增長以及更多國家對(duì)液化天然氣(LNG)的廣泛使用，未來15年，天然氣的需求將以15%的速度增長，成為化石燃料中最強(qiáng)勁的需求增長。

Agosta表示，由于針對(duì)COVID-19危機(jī)采取了限制措施，石油需求受到影響，而天然氣變得更具彈性。

根據(jù)國際能源署的數(shù)據(jù)，與2019年相比，去年全球石油需求下降約8%，至歷史最低水平，而天然氣需求下降2.5%，至3.9萬億立方米。

“在水泥、鋼鐵生產(chǎn)中使用天然氣時(shí)，要更換天然氣更加困難。這就是為什么我們說該行業(yè)的脫碳并不一定意味著減少天然氣使用。脫碳將會(huì)出現(xiàn)，但它將來自能效設(shè)備或碳捕捉技術(shù)?！彼a(bǔ)充說，這些技術(shù)將為天然氣的綠色未來做出貢獻(xiàn)。

Agosta表示，大部分天然氣需求的絕對(duì)增長將來自中國或巴西等新興和增長中的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，而歐洲天然氣市場更為成熟，其需求增長將相對(duì)較低。

液化天然氣預(yù)計(jì)將在全球日益增長的天然氣需求中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。

殼牌在其最新的《2020年液化天然氣展望》中表示，2019年全球液化天然氣需求增長12.5%，至3.59億噸，預(yù)計(jì)到2040年將翻一番，至7億噸。殼牌表示，這一顯著增長加強(qiáng)了液化天然氣在向低碳能源體系轉(zhuǎn)型過程中日益重要的作用。

Agosta指出：“我們認(rèn)為液化天然氣是天然氣中增長最快的部分。這是一項(xiàng)經(jīng)過驗(yàn)證的技術(shù)，已經(jīng)有很多活動(dòng)來打造綠色液化天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)，這是一個(gè)好兆頭?！?/span>

朱佳妮 摘譯自 阿納多盧新聞

原文如下：

Gas to show strongest growth among fossil fuels by 2035

Natural gas is set to see the strongest demand growth among fossil fuels at 15% in the coming 15 years driven by increasing energy demand in emerging economies and the expanding use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in more countries, Alessandro Agosta, partner at global management consulting firm, McKinsey & Company, told Anadolu Agency in an exclusive interview.

Due to confinement measures against the COVID-19 crisis, Agosta said that oil demand suffered while natural gas became more resilient.

According to the International Energy Agency data, global oil demand decreased by around 8% last year to historic low levels, while natural gas demand saw a much smaller drop of 2.5% down to 3.9 trillion cubic meters compared to 2019.

"It is more difficult to replace natural gas when it is used in cement, steel production. That's why we say that the decarbonization of the sector will not necessarily mean a reduction in gas use. There will be decarbonization but it will come from energy efficiency appliances or carbon capture technologies," he said, adding that these technologies will contribute to a greener future for gas.

Agosta stated that most of the absolute growth in natural gas demand will come from emerging and growing economies like China or Brazil, while Europe with its more mature gas market will have relatively lower demand growth.

LNG is expected to play a key role in the increasing natural gas demand worldwide.

Shell said in its latest LNG Outlook 2020 that global demand for LNG rose by 12.5% to 359 million tons in 2019, and is forecasted to double to 700 million tons by 2040. According to Shell, this significant increase reinforces LNG’s growing role in the transition to a lower-carbon energy system.

"We think that LNG is the segment of natural gas that will see the fastest growth. It is a proven technology and there is already a lot of activity to make a green LNG industry which is a good sign," Agosta noted.