多種因素將澄清未來(lái)幾個(gè)月天然氣需求前景

據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2021年3月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的3名定期市場(chǎng)觀察人士近日表示，美國(guó)德克薩斯州最近的凍結(jié)、石化原料供應(yīng)緊張以及美國(guó)疫情限制的放松，將有助于更好地了解未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的天然氣需求。在本期“本周油氣市場(chǎng)值得關(guān)注的事情”中，請(qǐng)繼續(xù)了解他們的解釋和其它見(jiàn)解。

油氣數(shù)據(jù)公司Validere戰(zhàn)略副總裁馬克·勒·達(dá)因說(shuō)：石化產(chǎn)品的定價(jià)正悄然達(dá)到多年來(lái)的最高紀(jì)錄，由于天然氣液體(NGL)產(chǎn)量的減少，這可能會(huì)支撐天然氣價(jià)格。整個(gè)冬季，圍繞汽油價(jià)格的傳言不絕如耳，當(dāng)我們進(jìn)入平季時(shí)，我們應(yīng)該更好地了解有多少需求存在。

塔爾薩大學(xué)柯林斯商學(xué)院能源經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策和商務(wù)學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)湯姆·森說(shuō)：美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量應(yīng)該會(huì)恢復(fù)到風(fēng)暴前的水平，約為1100萬(wàn)桶/天，而高油價(jià)應(yīng)該會(huì)刺激有限但穩(wěn)定的新鉆井和生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，對(duì)德州能源危機(jī)的事后分析將迫使所有電力和天然氣公用事業(yè)公司——無(wú)論它們?cè)谀睦铩_保它們明年冬天開(kāi)始時(shí)儲(chǔ)存足夠的緊急天然氣供應(yīng)。4月份是“夏季”天然氣回注季節(jié)的開(kāi)始，這可能在未來(lái)7個(gè)月支撐天然氣期貨價(jià)格。隨著德克薩斯州、密西西比州和康涅狄格州的“重新開(kāi)放”，市場(chǎng)將密切關(guān)注其他州的效仿，這可能導(dǎo)致更多的能源需求。

投資銀行B. Riley Securities的股票研究部高級(jí)能源服務(wù)和設(shè)備分析師Tom Curran說(shuō)：由于壓力泵在冬季風(fēng)暴Uri造成的中斷和延遲以后恢復(fù)作業(yè)，美國(guó)在用的壓裂隊(duì)伍數(shù)會(huì)創(chuàng)造新的復(fù)蘇新高。2月12日，Primary Vision每周的在用壓力隊(duì)伍數(shù)達(dá)到了上升周期以來(lái)的峰值175個(gè)，然后，隨著風(fēng)暴的影響從巴肯地區(qū)擴(kuò)散到美國(guó)中部大陸地區(qū)，并穿過(guò)德克薩斯州南部，在2月19日下降到41個(gè)。當(dāng)我們將提交這些回應(yīng)時(shí)，最近的每周可以獲得的讀數(shù)是在2月26日，當(dāng)時(shí)的讀數(shù)是140個(gè)。在美國(guó)油田服務(wù)公司Select能源服務(wù)公司第4季度業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議上，首席財(cái)務(wù)官Nick Swyka在公司管理層的開(kāi)幕致辭中表示：“我們預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年在用的壓裂隊(duì)伍數(shù)量將增加到180至200個(gè)?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Mix of Factors Set to Clarify Natural Gas Demand Outlook

Fallout from the recent Texas freeze, tight petrochemical feedstocks, and the loosening of coronavirus restrictions in the United States should contribute to a better understanding of natural gas demand in the months to come, according to three of Rigzone’s regular market-watchers. Read on for their explanations, along with other insights, in this installment of what to watch this week in the oil and gas markets.

Mark Le Dain, vice president of strategy with the oil and gas data firm Validere: Petchem pricing is quietly reaching multi-year records, and this will likely support gas prices as the respective natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes are pulled out of stream. There has been so much noise around gas pricing through the winter that, as we get into shoulder season, we should get a better sense for how much of this demand there is.

Tom Seng, Director – School of Energy Economics, Policy and Commerce, University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business: U.S. production of crude should return to the pre-storm levels of about 11 million barrels per day (bpd) while higher prices should spur limited, but steady, activity in new drilling and production. The post-mortem on the energy crisis in Texas will, no doubt, force all power and gas utilities – regardless of where they are – to ensure they start next winter with adequate emergency natural gas supplies in storage. April is the start of the “summer” reinjection season which could support natural gas futures prices for the next seven months. With Texas, Mississippi, and Connecticut “re-opening,” the market will be watching for other states to follow suit which could result in more demand for energy.

Tom Curran, Senior Energy Services and Equipment Analyst in Equity Research, B. Riley Securities: As pressure pumpers resume work following the disruptions and delays inflicted by Winter Storm Uri, will the active U.S. frac spread count set a new recovery high. The Primary Vision weekly active count reached an upcycle-to-date peak of 175 on February 12 and then, as the storm’s effects spread from the Bakken into the MidCon and through South Texas, it plunged to 41 on February 19. As we’re submitting these responses, the most recent weekly reading available is for February 26, when the count stood at 140. As part of management’s opening remarks during Select Energy Services’ (NYSE: WTTR) 4Q20 earnings call, CFO Nick Swyka said, “We expect active frac crews to advance toward the 180 to 200 crew count range in the back half of the year.”