石油和天然氣下一步將走向何方？

據(jù)3月9日Investing.com報(bào)道，一是，美國能源政策轉(zhuǎn)變——即將減少產(chǎn)出；二是，紐約商品交易所原油期貨價(jià)格升至新高，并繼續(xù)向上突破；三是，天然氣價(jià)格走低；四是，美國和歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降推動(dòng)油價(jià)上漲；五是，與往年相比，天然氣庫存正在下降。

原油和天然氣市場(chǎng)在2020年跌至25年來的歷史低點(diǎn)后正在重新進(jìn)行調(diào)整。2020年4月20日，紐交所原油價(jià)格跌至每桶負(fù)40.32美元，這是自1980年代初WTI開始交易以來的最低價(jià)格。隨著儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施被填滿，這種能源大宗商品無處安放。西博恩(seaborn)布倫特(Brent)基準(zhǔn)期貨跌至本世紀(jì)最低水平——每桶16美元。

此外，2020年6月底，天然氣價(jià)格達(dá)到1.432美元/百萬英熱，這是1995年以來的最低價(jià)格。

從那以后，價(jià)格開始回升。對(duì)導(dǎo)致需求蒸發(fā)的全球新冠肺炎疫情結(jié)束的樂觀情緒推高了石油和天然氣價(jià)格。與此同時(shí)，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平的央行貨幣流動(dòng)性和政府刺激措施增加了全球貨幣供應(yīng)，在全球金融體系中播下了通脹的種子。

2021年初，原油和天然氣價(jià)格不斷走高，這一趨勢(shì)似乎還將持續(xù)下去。美國石油基金和美國天然氣基金是ETF產(chǎn)品，隨著石油和天然氣期貨合約的投資組合漲跌。

美國能源政策轉(zhuǎn)變:石油產(chǎn)量即將減少

美國取消了Keystone XL輸油管道項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目將加拿大阿爾伯塔省的原油輸送到美國。

加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管和向替代能源轉(zhuǎn)變將減少美國的石油產(chǎn)出。此前，美國主張將石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)從中東和其他全球生產(chǎn)國組織中獨(dú)立出來，而當(dāng)前的政策路徑將改變美國的能源格局。

紐約商品交易所原油期貨價(jià)格升至新高，并有望繼續(xù)上漲。紐約商品交易所原油期貨周線圖顯示，這種能源大宗商品上周升至每桶66.42美元的新高。原油價(jià)格在3月5日突破了2020年每桶65.65美元的高點(diǎn)。下一個(gè)目標(biāo)在每桶66.60美元附近，也就是2019年4月的高點(diǎn)位。

未平倉情況下，紐約商品交易所石油期貨市場(chǎng)的多頭和空頭頭寸總數(shù)接近250萬桶，高于11月初的200萬桶水平，要知道，當(dāng)時(shí)能源大宗商品達(dá)到每桶33.64美元的低點(diǎn)，并恢復(fù)了從2020年4月開始的上升軌跡，創(chuàng)下歷史新低。價(jià)格動(dòng)能和相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱指標(biāo)仍處于超買狀態(tài)。周波動(dòng)率為2.9%，反映了油價(jià)緩慢而穩(wěn)定的攀升。

天然氣價(jià)格走低

2020年6月，天然氣期貨價(jià)格跌至25年來的最低水平，近月合約價(jià)格為每百萬英熱1.432美元。

自那以后，天然氣價(jià)格連續(xù)走低。雖然未平倉合約指數(shù)從超過130萬降至略低于120萬的水平，這可能是季節(jié)性因素造成的。3月初，天然氣市場(chǎng)將迎來需求淡季，因?yàn)楸驹碌?，天然氣庫存將開始攀升。

截截至2009年9月，周價(jià)格動(dòng)能和相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱指標(biāo)均為中性。2021年，每周的歷史波動(dòng)率一直穩(wěn)定在50%以上，但從去年11月初需求旺季開始時(shí)的80%以上有所下降。

美國和歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降助力油價(jià)上漲

美國原油產(chǎn)量在2020年3月達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1310萬桶/天。根據(jù)美國能源信息署(EIA)的數(shù)據(jù)，截至2月26日當(dāng)周，日產(chǎn)量為1000萬桶/天，同比下降23.7%。

美國能源政策的轉(zhuǎn)變可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致從2020年3月開始的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄產(chǎn)量在可預(yù)見的未來保持不變，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在的監(jiān)管環(huán)境支持未來幾個(gè)月和幾年內(nèi)更低的產(chǎn)量水平。

盡管替代能源可能最終會(huì)讓美國實(shí)現(xiàn)能源獨(dú)立，但短期影響是，將部分定價(jià)權(quán)交還給了歐佩克和俄羅斯。上周，盡管油價(jià)上漲，但歐佩克+決定保持目前的生產(chǎn)政策不變，沙特阿拉伯將繼續(xù)自愿額外減產(chǎn)。

隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸擺脫疫情困境，此舉可能會(huì)擠壓美國消費(fèi)。沙特石油部長(zhǎng)在CNBC接受記者采訪時(shí)表示，歐佩克+目前已經(jīng)提高了石油市場(chǎng)的定價(jià)權(quán)。歐佩克成員國寧愿以更高的價(jià)格賣出更少的石油，也不愿以更低的價(jià)格賣出更多的石油。在歐佩克最新產(chǎn)量決定的影響下，原油期貨價(jià)格再創(chuàng)新高，超過2020年的峰值。

與前幾年相比，天然氣庫存正在下降

3月4日，EIA公布了全美天然氣庫存的最新情況。雖然最新的供應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2月26日，美國庫存減少了1.845萬億立方英尺，低于普遍預(yù)期，同比減少13.1%。此外，2月底的庫存較5年平均水平低8.8%。

未來幾周股市將繼續(xù)下跌。Estimize網(wǎng)站顯示，目前的普遍預(yù)期是，截至3月5日當(dāng)周的庫存將再減少880億立方英尺。

牛市很少是呈直線的。在大宗商品領(lǐng)域，原油或天然氣期貨市場(chǎng)通常需要一次供應(yīng)沖擊才會(huì)出現(xiàn)拋物線走勢(shì)。由于全球一半以上的原油儲(chǔ)備都在中東這個(gè)充滿不可抗力的地區(qū)，總有可能發(fā)生意外事件，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)大幅走高。

總而言之，美國能源政策的轉(zhuǎn)變對(duì)油氣價(jià)格是有利的。我們已經(jīng)看到這種影響滲透到能源大宗商品的價(jià)格上。在未來幾周和幾個(gè)月里，逢低買入石油和天然氣可能是最佳的做法。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

What’s Next For Oil And Gas?

US energy policy shifts- Less output on the horizon

Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rise to a new high and break out to the upside

Higher lows in natural gas

Crude oil production declines in the US- OPEC helps the rally

Natural gas inventories are falling compared to prior years

Crude oil and natural gas markets are readjusting after falling to all-time and quarter-of-a-century lows in 2020. On April 20, 2020, the NYMEX crude oil price dropped to negative $40.32 per barrel, the lowest price since WTI began trading in the early 1980s. As storage facilities filled, there was nowhere to put the energy commodity. The seaborn Brent benchmark futures fell to the lowest level of this century at $16 per barrel.

In late June, natural gas reached $1.432 per MMBtu, the lowest price since 1995.

Since then, prices have recovered. Optimism over the end of the global pandemic that caused demand to evaporate lifted oil and gas prices. Meanwhile, record levels of central bank liquidity and government stimulus increased the global money supply, planting inflationary seeds in the world financial system.

Crude oil and natural gas prices have moved higher over the past months, and that trend looks likely to continue. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) and the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG) are ETF products that move higher and lower with a portfolio of oil and gas futures contracts.

US energy policy shifts: Less output on the horizon

On his first day in office, US President Joe Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline project that transports crude oil from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to the US. With both houses of the US Congress in the hands of the President’s political party, the odds of a greener energy policy agenda are high.

Increased regulations and a shift towards alternative energy sources will decrease US output. The previous administration advocated for US oil and gas production to achieve independence from the Middle East and other world producers. The current policy path will alter US energy dynamics.

Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rise to a new high and break out to the upside

The path of least resistance for the oil price remains higher as of Mar. 5.

The weekly chart of NYMEX crude oil futures highlights the energy commodity rose to a new and higher high last week at $66.42 per barrel. Crude oil conquered the 2020 $65.65 peak on March 5. The next target is nearby at $66.60, the April 2019 high.

Open interest, the total number of long and short positions in the NYMEX oil futures market stood at nearly 2.5 million barrels, up from the two-million-barrel level in early November when the energy commodity reached a low of $33.64 and resumed its upward trajectory that began in April 2020 with the all-time low. Price momentum and relative strength indicators remain in overbought conditions. Weekly historical volatility at 2.9% reflects the slow and steady climb of oil’s price.

Higher lows in natural gas

In June 2020, natural gas futures fell to the lowest level in a quarter-of-a-century when the nearby contract traded to $1.432 per MMBtu.

Since then, natural gas has made a series of higher lows. While the open interest metric declined from over 1.3 to just below the 1.2 million contract level, the drop is likely a function of seasonal factors. In early March, the natural gas market is looking towards the offseason for demand when injections into storage begin to climb later this month.

Weekly price momentum and relative strength indicators were on either side of neutral readings as of Ma. 5. Weekly historical volatility has been holding steady at over the 50% level in 2021 but has declined from over 80% in early November at the start of the peak season for demand.

Crude oil production declines in the US; OPEC helps the rally

US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.1 million barrels per day in March 2020. According to the Energy Information Administration, daily output was running at 10.0 mbpd as of the week ending on February 26, a decline of 23.7% on a year-on-year basis.

The shift in US energy policy will likely cause the record from March 2020 to stand for the foreseeable future as the regulatory environment now supports even lower production levels for the coming months and years.

While alternative energy sources may eventually lead to US energy independence, the short-term impact hands some of the pricing power back to OPEC, the international petroleum cartel, and the Russians. Last week, OPEC+ decided to leave the current production policy intact despite the price rise. Saudi Arabia will continue its voluntary cut.

The move could squeeze US consumers as the economy emerges from the pandemic. In an interview on CNBC, the Saudi oil minister told a reporter, “Drill-baby-drill is dead,” in the US in a sign that OPEC+ now has increased pricing power in the oil market. The cartel’s members would rather sell fewer barrels at a higher price than more at a lower one. Crude oil futures rallied to a new high above the 2020 peak in the aftermath of OPEC’s latest output decision.

Natural gas inventories are falling compared to prior years

On Thursday, March 4, the Energy Information Administration released the latest snapshot of natural gas inventories across the United States.

While the latest supply data showed a withdrawal from storage below consensus estimates, at 1.845 trillion cubic feet as of February 26, stocks are 13.1% below last year’s level. Moreover, inventories were 8.8% under the five-year average for the end of February.

Stocks will continue to decline over the coming weeks. According to Estimize, a crowd-sourcing website, the current consensus estimates for the week ending on March 5 is for another 88 bcf decline in inventories.

Bull markets rarely move in a straight line. In the world of commodities, it typically takes a supply shock to cause a parabolic move in the crude oil or natural gas futures market. With more than half the world’s crude oil reserves in the Middle East, a highly turbulent political region, there is always a potential for an unexpected event that sends prices appreciably higher.

The bottom line is the shift in US Energy policy is bullish for oil and gas prices. We are already seeing the impact filter through to prices of the energy commodities. Buying dips in oil and gas could be the optimal approach over the coming weeks and months.