維多集團：美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商不太可能增加產(chǎn)量

據(jù)彭博新聞社2021年3月8日倫敦報道，全球最大的私有石油交易商維多集團表示，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟3月4日出人意料地維持減產(chǎn)后的油價飆升，表明這個石油生產(chǎn)國集團仍然控制著市場。

歐佩克及其盟友3月4日決定將4月份減產(chǎn)措施基本維持在原有水平上，這一決定令市場大為震驚，這與市場將增加原油產(chǎn)量以滿足不斷增長需求的預(yù)期不符。基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油期貨價格在上周末躍升至每桶70美元。

維多集團亞洲主管邁克· 穆勒3月7日在咨詢公司海灣情報主辦的在線論壇上說，“市場告訴我們，歐佩克+已經(jīng)掌握了主動權(quán)。我們的股票行情在整個第二季度都將加速上漲，這就是市場這么做的原因?！?/span>

去年，疫情導(dǎo)致三分之一的能源需求消失，拉低了油價，石油生產(chǎn)商和交易商陷入困境。過剩的原油大量流入倉庫，導(dǎo)致庫存激增，美國原油期貨價格曾一度跌至零以下。

此后，歐佩克+實施了前所未有的減產(chǎn)，使價格回到大流行前的水平。歐佩克+決定維持產(chǎn)量限制，以支撐即期價格(未來幾個月售出的石油的成本)，這表明該卡特爾計劃通過供應(yīng)不足的方式削減大量庫存石油。

穆勒說，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的主要成員國俄羅斯此前曾表示擔(dān)心，此舉將使美國的競爭對手搶占市場份額。然而，美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商不太可能增加產(chǎn)量。

他說，“美國在用鉆機數(shù)量仍遠(yuǎn)不能支持美國恢復(fù)到他們在2019年結(jié)束時達(dá)到的1300萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量水平。”

在穆勒3月7日發(fā)表上述講話之前，沙特阿拉伯表示已經(jīng)挫敗了對其一些設(shè)施的無人機和導(dǎo)彈襲擊。布倫特原油在3月8日早盤交易中飆升至每桶70美元以上，隨后回吐漲幅。

穆勒表示，需求的進一步增長仍可能推高石油價格。

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Trader Says USA Shale Producers Unlikely to Ramp Up Output

Oil’s surge following OPEC+’s surprise move to maintain cuts in supply shows the producers’ group is in charge of the market, Vitol Group said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies shocked the market on Thursday when they opted to keep output curbs largely in place, belying expectations that they would pump more crude to meet rising demand. Benchmark Brent futures jumped toward $70 a barrel at the end of the week.

“The market is telling us that OPEC+ have control,” Mike Muller, Vitol’s head of Asia, said Sunday in an online forum hosted by consultant Gulf Intelligence. “We’re going to get a stock-draw that is going to accelerate through the second quarter and that’s why the market is doing what it’s doing.”

Oil producers and traders were left reeling last year after the coronavirus pandemic wiped out a third of energy demand, dragging down prices. Surplus crude flooded into storage, swelling stockpiles to the point where U.S. futures dropped below zero.

OPEC+ has since implemented unprecedented production cuts, returning prices to pre-pandemic levels. Its decision to maintain output restrictions to support prompt prices -- the cost of barrels sold in the coming months -- indicates the group aims to cut into that mass of stored oil by undersupplying the market.

Key OPEC+ member Russia previously voiced concerns that such a move would allow rival drillers in the U.S. to seize market share. Yet shale producers are unlikely to ramp up output, Muller said.

“U.S. rig counts are still nowhere close to supporting the U.S. returning to anywhere like the 13 million barrels a day we closed 2019 at,” he said.

Muller spoke Sunday before Saudi Arabia said it had thwarted drone and missile attacks on some of its facilities. Brent crude surged past $70 a barrel in early trading on Monday before erasing gains.

Further increases in demand could still push prices higher, according to Muller.