2021年美國天然氣產(chǎn)量上升但需求量將連續(xù)下降

據(jù)路透社3月10日消息，美國能源信息署(EIA)周二在《短期能源展望》(STEO)中表示，2021年美國天然氣產(chǎn)量將邊際上升，而需求則連續(xù)第二年下降，因?yàn)楣跔畈《痉怄i帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果繼續(xù)困擾市場。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，干氣產(chǎn)量將從2020年的913.4億立方英尺/天升至2021年的913.5億立方英尺/天，2022年為928.3立方英尺/天。相比之下，2019年的歷史最高值為930.6億立方英尺/天。

它還預(yù)計(jì)天然氣消費(fèi)量將從2020年的832.5 億立方英尺/天降至2021年的825.22億立方英尺/天和2022年的816億立方英尺/天。而2019年則為851.5億立方英尺/天。

如果這一預(yù)測正確，2021年將是2006年以來消費(fèi)量首次連續(xù)兩年下降，2022年將是1983年以來首次連續(xù)三年下降。

EIA在3月份對2021年的預(yù)測高于其2月份預(yù)測的供應(yīng)量905.0億立方英尺/天和需求量817.1億立方英尺/天。

該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測，2021年美國液化天然氣出口量將達(dá)到82.9億立方英尺/天，2022年將達(dá)到92.2億立方英尺/天，高于2020年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的65.3億立方英尺/天。這低于其2月份預(yù)測的2021年84.6億立方英尺。

尹路 編譯自 路透社

原文如下：

U.S. natgas output to rise, while demand falls for second year in 2021

U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row as economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continue to plague the market, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 91.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 92.83 bcfd in 2022 from 91.34 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019.

It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.52 bcfd in 2021 and 81.60 bcfd in 2022 from 83.25 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019.

If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two consecutive years since 2006, and 2022 would be the first time it falls for three years since 1983.

EIA’s projections for 2021 in March were higher than its February forecasts of 90.50 bcfd for supply and 81.71 bcfd for demand.

The agency forecast U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would reach 8.29 bcfd in 2021 and 9.22 bcfd in 2022, up from a record 6.53 bcfd in 2020. That is lower than its February forecast of 8.46 bcfd in 2021.

The EIA projected U.S. coal production will rise to 581.2 million short tons in 2021 and 610.3 million short tons in 2022 from 539.1 million short tons in 2020, its lowest since 1965, as power plants burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices.

The EIA projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will rise to 4.843 billion tonnes in 2021 and 4.954 billion tonnes in 2022 as power generators burn more coal. That is up from 4.583 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983.