從美國(guó)為先到能源轉(zhuǎn)型 兩年間石油市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變

據(jù)路透社3月1日紐約報(bào)道，2019年美國(guó)前國(guó)務(wù)卿邁克·龐培在全球最大的能源會(huì)議上登臺(tái)亮相，宣布在經(jīng)過(guò)十年的頁(yè)巖氣快速發(fā)展使美國(guó)成為世界上最大的石油和天然氣生廠商之后，美國(guó)已在石油業(yè)占據(jù)統(tǒng)治地位。

兩年后，為遏制新冠病毒蔓延而出臺(tái)的限行令消除了全球五分之一的燃料需求，石油行業(yè)正從經(jīng)歷過(guò)的最嚴(yán)重的衰退中復(fù)蘇。在成千上萬(wàn)的工作崗位流失之后，美國(guó)化石燃料行業(yè)仍然處于困境中。

疫情還加速了能源轉(zhuǎn)型，中斷了燃料消費(fèi)的穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，如若不然這種增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)年之久。石油需求可能永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法從此次打擊中恢復(fù)。今年，在休斯頓舉行的虛擬會(huì)議CERAWeek上，眾多小組專門致力于向未來(lái)的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)，氫能技術(shù)和氣候變化的過(guò)渡。

微軟聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人比爾·蓋茨、美國(guó)氣候特使約翰·克里、亞馬遜和可再生能源巨頭伊維爾德羅拉公司的發(fā)言人都是主要的發(fā)言者。

IHSMarkit副主席、CERAWeek創(chuàng)始人丹·耶金表示:“會(huì)議的基調(diào)有所不同:整個(gè)會(huì)議都圍繞著一個(gè)主題，那就是能源轉(zhuǎn)型。”

從那時(shí)起，全球許多主要石油公司都制定了雄心勃勃的目標(biāo)，將新的投資轉(zhuǎn)向減少碳排放、減緩全球變暖的技術(shù)。 BP 公司基本上已經(jīng)放棄了其石油勘探團(tuán)隊(duì);美國(guó)汽車巨頭通用汽車宣布，計(jì)劃在15年內(nèi)停止生產(chǎn)汽油和柴油動(dòng)力汽車。

可以肯定的是，2021年的計(jì)劃包括了通常出席CERAWeek的石油領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。他們中有歐佩克秘書長(zhǎng)穆罕默德?巴爾金多，以及?？松梨?、道達(dá)爾、雪佛龍和西方石油公司的首席執(zhí)行官。

但他們將參加聚焦能源轉(zhuǎn)型的小組討論。巴爾金多將討論在未來(lái)需求受到挑戰(zhàn)的情況下，石油和天然氣將有什么樣的采收率。BP公司的魯尼將與今年晚些時(shí)候?qū)⒊蔀閬嗰R遜公司首席執(zhí)行官的安迪·雅西一起，參加一個(gè)關(guān)于重新開(kāi)發(fā)能源的小組討論。西方石油公司首席執(zhí)行官Vicki Hollub和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)部長(zhǎng)Ahmed Al Jaber將著手解決削減碳排放的問(wèn)題。

石油公司面臨著來(lái)自股東、政府和活動(dòng)人士越來(lái)越大的壓力，要求它們展示自己正在如何將業(yè)務(wù)從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源，并加快這一轉(zhuǎn)變。

由大型石油公司組成的聯(lián)盟——石油和天然氣氣候倡議(Oil and Gas Climate Initiative)戰(zhàn)略與政策副總裁朱利安·佩雷斯表示:“今年的計(jì)劃反映了向未來(lái)凈零能源過(guò)渡的現(xiàn)實(shí)?！?/span>

裘寅 編譯自 路透社

原文如下：

From U.S. domination to energy transition, two years that changed oil

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took the stage at the world’s largest energy conference in 2019 to declare an age of U.S. dominance after a decade of rapid shale development made the United States the world’s top oil and gas Producer.

Two years later, the oil industry is recovering from the worst recession it has ever experienced after measures to contain coronavirus stopped billions of people from traveling and wiped out one-fifth of worldwide demand for fuel. The U.S. fossil fuel industry is still reeling after tens of thousands of jobs were lost.

The pandemic has also accelerated the energy transition, interrupting a steady rise in fuel consumption that may have otherwise continued for several more years unabated. Oil demand may never recover from that hit. This year, the CERAWeek conference in Houston is entirely virtual and numerous panels are dedicated to the transition to the low-carbon economy of the future, hydrogen technologies and climate change.

Microsoft Corp co-founder Bill Gates, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, and speakers from Amazon and renewable fuels giant Iberdrola are among the headline speakers.

“The tone is different: There’s one theme that permeates the entire conference and that is energy transition,” said CERAWeek Founder Dan Yergin, vice chair of IHSMarkit.

Since that time, many of the world’s major oil companies have set ambitious goals to shift new investments to technologies that will reduce carbon emissions to slow global warming. U.K.-based BP Plc has largely jettisoned its oil exploration team; U.S. auto giant General Motors Co announced plans to stop making gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles in 15 years.

To be sure, the 2021 program includes oil leaders who typically appear at CERAWeek. They include Mohammed Barkindo, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the chief executives of Exxon Mobil, Total, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum.

But they will participate in panels focusing on the energy transition. Barkindo will discuss what kind of a recovery oil and gas will have as future demand is challenged. BP’s Looney will join Andy Jassy, who is set to become Amazon.com Inc’s CEO later this year, on a panel about reinventing energy. Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub and Ahmed Al Jaber, United Arab Emirates minister of state, are slated to tackle cutting carbon emissions.

Oil companies have come under increasing pressure from shareholders, governments and activists to show how they are changing their businesses from fossil fuels toward renewables, and to accelerate that transition.

“This year’s program reflects the reality of the transition toward a net zero future,” said Julien Perez, vice president of strategy and policy for the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, a consortium of major oil companies.