路透社調(diào)查：多家銀行認為今年油價將穩(wěn)步上漲

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)倫敦報道，根據(jù)路透社2月26日對業(yè)內(nèi)分析師的一次調(diào)查，今年布倫特原油的平均價格將為每桶59.07美元。

這一油價預(yù)測高于路透社1月份調(diào)查分析師達成的平均每桶54.47美元的共識，這反映出人們對這種全球交易量最大的大宗商品的近期前景越來越樂觀。

瑞士銀行巨頭寶盛集團的Norbert Ruecker對路透社記者表示，“由于刺激措施、信心、疫苗和更有針對性的應(yīng)對新冠肺炎疫情大流行措施的混合，旅游和休閑活動看來將趕上上漲的制造業(yè)活動?！?/span>

在加速接種疫苗、政府刺激措施和持續(xù)的供應(yīng)紀(jì)律(特別是在歐佩克+成員國和美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商之間)的共同作用下，一些銀行上調(diào)了他們的油價預(yù)期。

例如，美國銀行(Bank of America)最近表示，油價預(yù)計將以30年來最快的速度增長。美國銀行預(yù)計，未來5年里，布倫特原油平均價格將在每桶50美元至70美元之間。

巴克萊銀行預(yù)計，今年全球原油交易基準(zhǔn)價格將平均每桶67美元，理由是美國原油庫存恢復(fù)正常，以及美國頁巖行業(yè)對油價上漲的反應(yīng)減弱。

巴克萊銀行表示，“比正常天氣更冷的天氣，尤其是在美國南部各州，對產(chǎn)出的影響超過了需求，從而加速了庫存的正常化。”

高盛銀行2月早些時候甚至進一步推高了油價預(yù)測，預(yù)計布倫特原油可能在今年第三季度達到每桶75美元，原因是石油市場的再平衡速度快于此前的預(yù)期。

高盛銀行分析師表示，由于市場再平衡和政府旨在重啟受新冠肺炎疫情大流行打擊的經(jīng)濟的刺激措施，人們甚至開始討論油價在德州凍結(jié)后重返三位數(shù)的可能性。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Reuters Poll: Bankers See Steady Rise In Oil Prices

Brent crude will average $59.07 per barrel this year, according to a Reuters survey of analysts.

This is up from last month’s consensus on an average of $54.47 a barrel, reflecting growing optimism about the immediate future of the world’s most traded commodity.

“Travel and leisure activity look set to catch up to buoyant manufacturing activity due to the mix of stimulus, confidence, vaccines, and more targeted pandemic measures,” one of the survey respondents, Norbert Ruecker from Swiss Julius Baer, told Reuters.

The combination of accelerating vaccination drives, government stimulus, and continued supply discipline, notably among OPEC+ members and U.S. shale producers, has lifted oil prices recently, with a number of banks revising their oil price forecast upwards.

Bank of America, for instance, recently said it expected oil prices to grow at the fastest rate in three decades. The bank forecast Brent will average between $50 and $70 over the next five years.

Barclays expects the global benchmark to trade at an average of $67 a barrel this year, citing normalizing inventories in the United States and a weaker response of the U.S. shale patch to rising oil prices.

“Colder-than-normal weather, especially in the southern states, has accelerated the normalization in inventories by disrupting output more than demand,” Barclays said.

Goldman Sachs went even higher earlier this month, predicting Brent could hit $75 a barrel by the third quarter of this year thanks to faster than previously expected oil market rebalancing.

Talk has even started about the possibility of oil returning into three-digit territory after the Texas Freeze, again thanks to a rebalancing market and government stimulus aimed at restarting pandemic-hit economies. Goldman analysts said.