機(jī)構(gòu)觀點(diǎn)：俄羅斯必須擺脫對(duì)石油的依賴

據(jù)2月27日The Independent報(bào)道，俄羅斯必須擺脫對(duì)石油的依賴。必須利用石油和天然氣收入來做到這一點(diǎn)。這也就是當(dāng)前該公司所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，這是一個(gè)具有俄羅斯特色的故事。待會(huì)再談這個(gè)問題。首先是必須談的是規(guī)模。

要知道，俄羅斯過度依賴能源和原材料出口，這兩項(xiàng)出口約占總出口總額的三分之二。這意味著，它不僅要應(yīng)對(duì)石油和天然氣價(jià)格的變化;同時(shí)，強(qiáng)調(diào)粗生產(chǎn)意味著它未能建立其他形式的能源和財(cái)富創(chuàng)造。這導(dǎo)致了巨大的貨幣波動(dòng)。

2020年，油價(jià)暴跌重創(chuàng)了政府財(cái)政。基于去年3月每桶28美元的油價(jià)，政府披露了390億美元(280億英鎊)的預(yù)算缺口，這遠(yuǎn)低于2020年預(yù)算計(jì)劃中每桶42美元的平均水平。官方的觀點(diǎn)是，每桶42美元是俄羅斯的盈虧平衡油價(jià)。幸運(yùn)的是，現(xiàn)在油價(jià)回升至每桶66美元，俄羅斯財(cái)政部終于可以喘口氣了。

如果在短期內(nèi)仍不能令人滿意，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看也存在麻煩的。根據(jù)英國(guó)石油(BP)的數(shù)據(jù)，全球84%的一次能源來自煤炭、石油和天然氣這三種化石燃料。煤炭所占比例正在下降，降至27%，天然氣占24%，石油占33%。這種情況會(huì)改變，但改變的速度有多快?麥肯錫認(rèn)為，到2050年，化石燃料仍將占總能源的74%。彭博社的新能源展望認(rèn)為，石油需求將在2035年達(dá)到頂峰，而天然氣需求將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)到2050年。但似乎有一種普遍觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，到2050年以后，石油和天然氣的需求下降速度將加快。

這對(duì)全球石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商有著巨大的影響。現(xiàn)在或許需要一代人的時(shí)間，可以利用石油收入投資可再生能源，并更廣泛地投資其他經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域，包括高質(zhì)量的服務(wù)。中東地區(qū)已經(jīng)在發(fā)生變化，尤其是沙特阿拉伯正在尋求利用石油收入為轉(zhuǎn)向其它活動(dòng)提供資金。沙特在其“沙特愿景2030”(Saudi Vision 2030)項(xiàng)目中制定了雄心勃勃的計(jì)劃，其中的兩個(gè)目標(biāo)分別是：增加私營(yíng)部門的規(guī)模，從2016年的占GDP的40%到2030年的65%；并將非石油出口從占總量的16%提高到50%。這將是一個(gè)巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。

俄羅斯沒有像沙特阿拉伯這樣，明確長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃。不過，該國(guó)有一項(xiàng)恢復(fù)計(jì)劃幫助修復(fù)疫情造成的破壞，但這是一項(xiàng)短期工作。有一項(xiàng)有爭(zhēng)議的計(jì)劃是通過波羅的海的Nord Stream 2天然氣管道增加對(duì)德國(guó)的天然氣出口，但這反映了一個(gè)不同的優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)——德國(guó)需要俄羅斯的天然氣，這條管道可以直接獲得額外的供應(yīng)。但如果純粹的經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來看，這是有實(shí)際意義的。因?yàn)榈聡?guó)需要天然氣，俄羅斯需要收入。

談到對(duì)俄羅斯的石油公司方面的影響，以及上面提到的英國(guó)的轉(zhuǎn)變。要知道，俄羅斯最大的能源企業(yè)是俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)。該公司實(shí)際上控制著俄羅斯天然氣公司Rosneftegaz超過40%的股份，還擁有全球最大天然氣生產(chǎn)商俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司(Gazprom) 11%的股份。不過，英國(guó)石油(BP)是俄羅斯石油的少數(shù)股東，BP持有該集團(tuán)略低于20%的股份。

令人感興趣，俄羅斯石油公司一直尋求作為一家完全獨(dú)立的公司運(yùn)營(yíng)。董事長(zhǎng)是德國(guó)前總理格哈德 (Gerhard Schr?der)，董事會(huì)中有執(zhí)行董事、非執(zhí)行董事和獨(dú)立董事，其中包括兩名英國(guó)石油(BP)的代表。該公司面臨的重大問題與所有石油公司一樣:多快才能實(shí)現(xiàn)綠色能源轉(zhuǎn)型。

由于俄羅斯石油公司在西伯利亞泰梅爾半島(Taymyr peninsula)的沃斯托克(Vostok)項(xiàng)目，情況變得更加復(fù)雜。該項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)值850億美元(610億英鎊)，目標(biāo)是在2024年達(dá)到日產(chǎn)50萬桶(或每年2500萬噸)的產(chǎn)量，最終達(dá)到可能的1億噸的峰值。

俄羅斯石油公司正尋求將油氣生產(chǎn)期間的排放量削減30%，至每千桶二氧化碳排放量不到20噸，但這仍可能意味著，如果產(chǎn)量增加，絕對(duì)排放量將上升。俄羅斯石油公司還聲稱，Vostok項(xiàng)目的碳足跡將是全球其他類似項(xiàng)目的25%。

BP正在迎頭趕上，但其首席執(zhí)行官伯納德?魯尼(Bernard Looney)認(rèn)為，該公司的努力并未得到投資者的認(rèn)可。但它需要有能力為這一轉(zhuǎn)變提供資金，而在這方面，它與俄羅斯石油公司的關(guān)系可能最有幫助。至關(guān)重要的是，它從所持Rosneft股份中獲得了股息，2019年為7.85億美元，自2013年以來達(dá)到40億美元。但這也能讓Rosneft獲得越來越多的關(guān)于如何讓替代能源賺錢的知識(shí)。保持合作對(duì)雙方利益而言都非常有利。

但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，俄羅斯需要成功轉(zhuǎn)型，擺脫對(duì)石油和天然氣的過度依賴。俄羅斯政府在使用可再生能源方面采取了一些措施，政府似乎在推動(dòng)數(shù)字技術(shù)來幫助改變俄羅斯的能源行業(yè)。能源部已經(jīng)開發(fā)了一個(gè)名為“數(shù)字能源”的項(xiàng)目，旨在創(chuàng)建實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

當(dāng)然，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，推動(dòng)來自俄羅斯和其他國(guó)家的能源革命性技術(shù)可以幫助全世界所有人。因?yàn)檫@存在進(jìn)行真正合作的空間，大家應(yīng)該一起為變革而努力。

王佳晶 摘譯自 The Independent

原文如下：

Russia has to change its energy habits – and overcome political divides to do so

Russia has to wean itself off its reliance on oil. But it has to use oil and gas revenues to do so.

That is the fascinating, tantalising challenge facing the country, and it is story that has a British twist. Come to that in a moment. First the scale of what has to be done.

Russia is overly reliant on energy and raw material exports, which account for some two-thirds of the total. That means that not only does it have to cope with shifts in oil and gas prices; emphasis on primary production means it has failed to build up other forms of energy and wealth-creation. This leads to huge monetary swings.

Last year, the plunge in oil prices devastated government finances. The government disclosed a $39bn (￡28bn) budget shortfall. That was based on an oil price last March of $28 a barrel, well below the average of $42 a barrel in the 2020 budget plan. The official view is that $42 a barrel is Russia’s break even oil price. But now the price as recovered to $66 a barrel, more than reversing the collapse last year. The Russian treasury can breathe again.

If this is obviously unsatisfactory in the short-term, it is troubling in the long run too. According to BP, 84 per cent of the world’s primary energy comes from the three fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas. The share of coal is shrinking, down to 27 per cent of the total. Gas is 24 per cent, and oil 33 per cent. This will change, but how fast? McKinsey thinks that fossil fuels will still contribute 74 per cent of total energy in 2050. Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook thinks that oil demand will peak in 2035, though gas will go on rising through to 2050. But there seems to be a general view that beyond 2050 that the decline in both oil and gas will gather pace.

This has huge implications for the world’s oil and gas producers. There is time – perhaps a generation – to use the revenues from petroleum to invest in renewables, and more widely into other areas of the economy including high-quality services. Already change is happening in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia in particular seeking use oil revenues to finance the shift to other activities. It has set out ambitious plans in its Saudi Vision 2030 project. Take just two elements of that: the goal is to increase the size of the private sector from 40 per cent of GDP in 2016 to 65 per cent in 2030, and to increase non-oil exports from 16 per cent of the total to 50 per cent. This will be an enormous challenge.

Russia does not have an explicit long-term plan for the economy similar to that of Saudi Arabia. There is a recovery plan to help repair the damage caused by the pandemic, but this is a short-term exercise. There is the controversial plan to increase gas exports to Germany, through the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline down the Baltic Sea, but that reflects a different priority. Germany needs Russian gas, and the pipeline gives direct access to additional supplies. But if you look at it from a purely economic perspective it makes practical sense. Germany needs gas and Russia needs revenue.

Now focus on what this means for oil companies in Russia, and the British twist noted above. The largest enterprise is Rosneft. It is in effect controlled by Rosneftegaz, the state-owned holding company that has just over 40 per cent of its shares and also owns 11 per cent of Gazprom, the largest gas producer in the world. Rosneft however has a minority owner, BP, which has just under 20 per cent of the group.

Rosneft is interesting, for though it is controlled by the government, it has sought to operate as a fully independent company. Its chair is Gerhard Schr?der, the former German Chancellor and it has a balance of executive, non-executive, and independent directors on its board, including two representatives of BP. The great question it faces is the same as that of all oil companies: how fast to go green?

This matter is complicated by Rosneft's Vostok Oil project in Siberia’s Taymyr peninsula. The project, which is valued at $85bn (￡61bn), is aiming at production of 500,000 barrels a day – or 25m tons a year – in 2024 before eventually reaching a peak of potentially 100m tons. While the world still needs oil, environmentalists have long decried the idea of drilling in the area.

Rosneft is seeking a 30 per cent cut in emissions during the production of oil and gas, to an equivalent of less than 20 tons of CO2 per thousand barrels – but this could still mean a rise in absolute emissions if production increases. Rosneft also claims that the Vostok Oil project will have a carbon footprint which is 25 per cent of other similar global projects.

BP is racing ahead, though its chief executive, Bernard Looney, believes that it is not getting investors’ recognition for its efforts. But it needs to be able to finance the shift, and here its relationship with Rosneft is potentially most helpful. Critically it receives the dividends that flow from its stake in Rosneft, $785m in 2019 and $4bn since 2013. But it also can give Rosneft access to its growing knowledge of how to make alternatives pay. It is powerfully in the self-interest of both to keep cooperating.

But on a long view Russia needs to make a successful transition away from over-reliance on oil and gas. The Russian government has made some moves towards the use of renewable energy, with authorities seemingly pushing for digital technologies to help change Russia's energy sector. The Energy Ministry has developed a project called “Digital Energy” which is aimed at creating the infrastructure to make that happen.

Certainly, a push on transformative technology from both Russia and other countries could help us all in the long run.

There is certainly scope for genuine cooperation – where it suits both sides to march together for a change.