石油市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇正在放緩

據(jù)今日油價(jià)10月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，就在全球石油需求在4月大跌20%之后，分析師預(yù)計(jì)2020年下半年石油消費(fèi)將復(fù)蘇，在歐佩克+減產(chǎn)和美國(guó)減產(chǎn)的支撐下，石油市場(chǎng)將實(shí)現(xiàn)再平衡。截至7月，石油需求已收復(fù)了二季度的大部分損失，但隨著美國(guó)、印度和歐洲等主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體新冠肺炎疫情的再度爆發(fā)，復(fù)蘇開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)動(dòng)搖。由于全球仍有大量過(guò)剩的原油和石油產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存有待處理，夏末，有關(guān)疫情和經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的高度不確定性開(kāi)始給石油市場(chǎng)和油價(jià)帶來(lái)壓力，當(dāng)時(shí)人們清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)到，2020年不會(huì)是石油市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)平衡的年份。

世界最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)美國(guó)的石油庫(kù)存正在減少，但速度非常緩慢。市場(chǎng)正在走向再平衡，但這一過(guò)程可能要多花好幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間，而且肯定比最初預(yù)期的要多。

如今，許多不確定因素都給石油需求預(yù)測(cè)和油價(jià)帶來(lái)了下行壓力，包括當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇時(shí)，許多國(guó)家的許多人都能獲得有效的疫苗，以及對(duì)是否需要在家工作和虛擬企業(yè)活動(dòng)和會(huì)議上的行為發(fā)生了改觀。

石油市場(chǎng)的再平衡也取決于歐佩克+的未來(lái)政策，該集團(tuán)正計(jì)劃從2021年1月開(kāi)始，進(jìn)一步將石油減產(chǎn)規(guī)模從770萬(wàn)桶/日縮減至580萬(wàn)桶/日，而第一季度全球石油需求處于最疲弱狀態(tài)。

美國(guó)是全球最大的石油消費(fèi)國(guó)，也是最透明的石油市場(chǎng)。最近幾周，美國(guó)的每周庫(kù)存報(bào)告提供了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。不過(guò)，離市場(chǎng)平衡還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走，因?yàn)榻衲暝缧r(shí)候創(chuàng)下的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位需要被消耗。

路透社市場(chǎng)分析師John Kemp根據(jù)EIA數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)，在過(guò)去11周中，美國(guó)原油和產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存存在10周的下降。在最近一周的報(bào)告中，EIA報(bào)告稱，截至10月2日，原油庫(kù)存增加了50萬(wàn)桶，但汽油和餾分油庫(kù)存的下降，以及產(chǎn)量的大幅增加，是每周庫(kù)存報(bào)告中的亮點(diǎn)。

美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存為4.929億桶，仍較今年同期的五年平均水平高出約12%。然而，過(guò)剩庫(kù)存已經(jīng)從7月份超過(guò)五年平均水平的19%有所減少。當(dāng)前，汽車汽油總庫(kù)存略低于5年平均水平，這是3月份以來(lái)汽油庫(kù)存首次低于5年平均水平。

儲(chǔ)備的減少已經(jīng)開(kāi)始，但供需平衡的時(shí)間將比預(yù)期的要長(zhǎng)，而且可能會(huì)因采取更嚴(yán)格的措施抗擊重新出現(xiàn)的新冠肺炎疫情而偏離，特別是在今年秋冬的流感季節(jié)。

歐佩克秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)穆罕默德巴金多本月稍早表示，疫苗將大大改善供需狀況，但在那之前，巨大的不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將繼續(xù)動(dòng)搖石油市場(chǎng)，并影響經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的步伐。

考慮到歐佩克目前計(jì)劃在2021年1月之前再將減產(chǎn)規(guī)模減少200萬(wàn)桶/天，這些巨大的不確定性可能會(huì)讓歐佩克+聯(lián)盟再次陷入困境。

沙特高級(jí)石油顧問(wèn)本周對(duì)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)表示，據(jù)報(bào)道，歐佩克最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)沙特阿拉伯正在考慮取消減產(chǎn)。

如果新冠肺炎病例上升導(dǎo)致更多地方封鎖和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的減少，那么，在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月,如果想在石油需求復(fù)蘇停滯的情況下阻止全球石油庫(kù)存再次增加，那么可能別無(wú)選擇，只能推遲放寬減產(chǎn)措施。

盡管預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月庫(kù)存將減少，但EIA預(yù)計(jì)高庫(kù)存水平和過(guò)剩的原油生產(chǎn)能力將限制油價(jià)上行。EIA預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在2020年第四季平均為42美元/桶，2021年將升至47美元/桶。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

What Is Slowing The Oil Market Recovery?

Just after global oil demand crashed by 20 percent in April, analysts predicted that consumption would recover in the second half of 2020 and, supported by the OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. curtailments, would help the oil market to rebalance. By July, oil demand had recouped most of the losses incurred during the second quarter, but the recovery started to wobble with the resurgence of coronavirus cases in major economies, including in the United States, India, and Europe. High uncertainties about COVID-19 and the economic recovery started to weigh on the oil market and prices at the end of the summer when it became clear that 2020 would not be the year of oil market balance as the world still has a lot of excess crude and oil product stocks to process.

Stocks are drawing down in the world’s top petroleum consumer, the United States, but the pace is very slow. The market is moving toward rebalancing, but this process will likely take many months more and certainly more than initially expected.

A number of uncertainties put downward pressure on every oil demand forecast and on oil prices these days, including when an effective vaccine could be available to many people in many countries when economies recover, and whether consumer behavior has changed for good with work from home and virtual corporate events and conferences.

Oil market rebalancing also hangs on the future policies of the OPEC+ group, which, as-is, is planning to additionally taper the oil production cuts from 7.7 million bpd to 5.8 million bpd beginning in January 2021. This would come in Q1, in which oil demand in the world is typically at its weakest.

The weekly inventory reports in the world’s largest oil consumer and most transparent market, the United States, have provided some encouraging signs in recent weeks. Still, we are a long way off to a market balance because the record-high stocks that were built earlier this year need to be drawn down.

Total crude oil and product stocks in the U.S. have declined in 10 out of the last 11 weeks, Reuters market analyst John Kemp estimates, based on EIA data.

In the latest reporting week, the EIA reported a crude oil inventory build of 500,000 barrels through October 2, but a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks and a sizeable increase in production were the bullish highlights of the weekly inventory report.

At 492.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were still about 12 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. The excess stocks, however, have shrunk from 19 percent above the five-year average in July. Total motor gasoline inventories were just below the five-year average for this time of year—the first time gasoline stocks fell below the five-year average since March.

The stock drawdown is already taking place, but the balancing will take longer than expected and could be derailed by stricter measures to combat resurging COVID-19 cases, especially in the flu season this fall and winter.

OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said earlier this month that a vaccine would “significantly brighten” the demand/supply scenario, but until that time, “l(fā)arge uncertainties and risks will continue to destabilize the oil market and affect the pace of economic recovery.”

These large uncertainties could put the OPEC+ coalition in a bind, again, considering that it currently plans to ease the cuts by another 2 million bpd as of January 2021.

OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is reportedly mulling over canceling the easing of the cuts, senior Saudi oil advisers told The Wall Street Journal this week.

If rising COVID-19 cases lead to more local lockdowns and reduced economic activity in the coming months, the OPEC+ alliance may have no other choice but to postpone the easing of the cuts if it wants to prevent another rise in oil stockpiles around the world amid stalled oil demand recovery.

“Despite expected inventory draws in the coming months, EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices. EIA forecasts monthly Brent spot prices will average $42/b during the fourth quarter of 2020 and will rise to an average of $47/b in 2021,” the EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook this week.