盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷 但墨西哥汽油需求環(huán)比持平

據(jù)石油世界期刊10月9日墨西哥城報(bào)道， 墨西哥的汽油需求在經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯和冠狀病毒流行造成的死亡人數(shù)不斷增加的情況下繼續(xù)保持。

根據(jù)墨西哥能源部提供的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在截至9月25日的一周中，汽油日銷量為66.8萬(wàn)桶。 據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管比2019年低15％，即減少11.9萬(wàn)桶，但自6月底以來(lái)幾乎沒有變化。根據(jù)蘋果公司最新的《移動(dòng)趨勢(shì)報(bào)告》顯示，上個(gè)月在墨西哥的駕車人數(shù)比去年同期下降了16％。

墨西哥在整個(gè)2020年的汽油日均需求約為68萬(wàn)桶，年收縮約為12萬(wàn)桶。在2020年較低的基礎(chǔ)和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)逐步正常化的幫助下，需求將在2021年恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)。然而，今年大部分時(shí)間的總體需求水平仍低于近期歷史水平。普氏分析公司預(yù)計(jì)2021年墨西哥的石油日需求將達(dá)到75.5萬(wàn)桶。

最新經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)顯示，墨西哥經(jīng)濟(jì)尚未從新冠疫情的影響中完全恢復(fù)，并且缺乏活力。

總部位于墨西哥的CI Banco的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師James Salazar表示，大多數(shù)指標(biāo)都比2019年低10％-15％。我們看到的唯一復(fù)蘇是消費(fèi)者信心。前景是不確定的，有惡化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。他預(yù)計(jì)今年經(jīng)濟(jì)將縮減9%。

根據(jù)行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)ANTAD的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，包括美國(guó)巨頭沃爾瑪在內(nèi)的該國(guó)百貨商店的可比銷售額在9月份連續(xù)第五個(gè)月同比下降。根據(jù)官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，9月份用于出口的汽車制造業(yè)也失去了動(dòng)力，在經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)月的復(fù)蘇之后，環(huán)比下降了4％。

供應(yīng)穩(wěn)定

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，9月份的汽油進(jìn)口量(主要由國(guó)家控制的墨西哥石油公司Pemex進(jìn)口)保持不變，月環(huán)比為46.1萬(wàn)桶/日，但與2019年相比下降16%。

產(chǎn)量也保持不變。據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，9月最后一周，該公司日產(chǎn)量為21.4萬(wàn)桶。盡管六家煉油廠之一的Tula的產(chǎn)量最近有所下降，但Pemex設(shè)法維持了9月份的汽油產(chǎn)量。

墨西哥政府已開始尋求提高其煉油能力，以最終停止主要從美國(guó)進(jìn)口燃料。該國(guó)正在建設(shè)一座新的煉油廠，最近還宣布計(jì)劃通過(guò)增加煉焦產(chǎn)能，對(duì)現(xiàn)有的兩座煉油廠進(jìn)行升級(jí)。

郝芬 譯自 石油世界期刊

原文如下：

Mexico's gasoline demand steady on month despite languid economy

Gasoline demand in Mexico continues to hold up amid a stagnant economy and growing numbers of fatalities caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Sales of gasoline stood at 668,000 b/d in the week ended Sept. 25, the latest data available from the energy ministry showed. Despite being 15% or 119,000 b/d below 2019 levels, it has remained practically unchanged since the end of June, the data showed. According to Apple's latest Mobility Trends Report, driving in Mexico during last month was 16% lower from a year earlier period.

Mexican gasoline demand will average around 680,000 b/d for the full 2020,and an annual contraction of roughly 120,000 b/d. Demand growth is set to resume in 2021, aided by the much lower base set in 2020 and gradual normalization of economic activities. However, overall demand levels stay below recent history for most of the year. Platts Analytics projects 2021 Mexican demand to reach 755,000 b/d.

The latest economic indicators show the Mexican economy has not fully recovered from the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and is lacking dynamism.

Most of the indicators are between 10% and 15% below 2019, James Salazar, economic analysts at Mexico-based CI Banco.

"The only recovery we have seen is in consumer confidence. The horizon is uncertain with risks of deterioration," said Salazar, who expects the economy to contract 9% in 2020.

Comparable sales at the county's department stores, including US giant Walmart recorded their fifth straight month of year-on-year decline in September, data from the industry's association ANTAD showed. Manufacturing of vehicles for exports also lost steam in September, official data showed, that fell 4% on a sequential basis after three months of recovery.

Supply steady

Imports of gasoline, mostly by state controlled Pemex, remained unchanged in September on a monthly comparison at 461,000 b/d, although it is down 16% compared to 2019, the data showed.

Production also remained unchanged. On the last week of September, the company produced 214,000 b/d, the data showed. Pemex managed to maintain production of gasoline through September, despite recent output declines at Tula, one of the six refineries, data showed.

The Mexico administration has embarked on a quest to increase its refining capacity to eventually stop importing fuels, mainly from the US. The country is building a new refinery and recently announced plans to upgrade two of the existing ones by adding coking capacity.