機(jī)構(gòu)：預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將在第四季度開(kāi)始上漲

據(jù)10月11日FX Empire報(bào)道，盡管原油價(jià)格在上周五下跌，但前一周石油多頭占據(jù)了主導(dǎo)地位。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油交易價(jià)格超過(guò)40美元/桶，布倫特原油結(jié)算價(jià)為43美元/桶，使原油價(jià)格上漲了10%。

由于Delta颶風(fēng)擾亂了美國(guó)能源中心地區(qū)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)作業(yè)，石油多頭相對(duì)控制了局面。進(jìn)一步的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,墨西哥灣的原油產(chǎn)量暴跌169萬(wàn)桶，即日產(chǎn)量的92%，海上石油平臺(tái)仍處于關(guān)閉狀態(tài)。

由于2020年新冠肺炎疫情攻擊全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成需求脆弱，石油交易商將原油需求和供應(yīng)的再平衡視為關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)，因此石油交易商認(rèn)為供應(yīng)緊張，油價(jià)看漲。

這也表明受供應(yīng)和需求變動(dòng)影響，2020年原油價(jià)格下跌約36%也就不足為奇了。包括俄羅斯在內(nèi)的歐佩克將于2020年11月30日至12月1日召開(kāi)會(huì)議，以了解油氣行業(yè)進(jìn)展情況。

從價(jià)格方面來(lái)看，疫情造成的破壞很可能已經(jīng)完全反映在脆弱的能源市場(chǎng)上，以布倫特原油為例，第二季度和第三季度的價(jià)格在每桶40- 45美元之間波動(dòng)。

分析師普遍認(rèn)為，在2020年之前，油價(jià)將不會(huì)大幅高于目前每桶40美元左右的水平，但也不太可能像過(guò)去那樣出現(xiàn)暴跌，因?yàn)閹缀跛械呢?fù)面因素似乎都已被市場(chǎng)消化。

王佳晶 摘譯自 FX Empire

原文如下：

Oil Prices Start Q4 up, Hurricane Delta Disrupts America’s Energy Hub

Oil bulls took charge in the previous week in spite of crude oil prices dropping on Friday. The West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $40/Barrel, and Brent crude settled at $43/Barrel, putting crude oil prices W/W gain at 10%.

Oil bulls took control relatively as Hurricane Delta disrupted America’s energy hub, taking , validating with data further revealed crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico plummeted by 1.69 million barrels or 92% of the energy hub’s daily output as a result of offshore oil platforms remaining closed after the dreadful storm tore through the region.

Crude oil traders are taking such squeeze in supplies bullish, as crude oil demand/supply rebalancing remains the key indicator, traders and oil players are taking into consideration in 2020, amid fragile demand as the COVID-19 virus onslaughts weigh its ugly head on the global economy.

That said, it becomes unsurprising to see crude oil prices still down about 36% in 2020.

OPEC+ including Russia is scheduled to meet on November 30-December 1, 2020 to know how it has fared on supporting the black viscous liquid hydrocarbon.

On the price pattern it’s very likely that COVID-19 disruption is now fully priced into the fragile energy market, as oil prices in the case of Brent crude ranged between $40-$45/Barrel, taking into account prices it traded at in Q2, Q3.

Analysts largely concur that oil prices are not expected to move much higher than current levels of around $40 a barrel until the rest of 2020, but neither are they likely as they did in the past as almost all negative factors seem to be priced in.