德勤：今年全球能源行業(yè)的3個(gè)主要趨勢

據(jù)TABNI網(wǎng)站貝魯特報(bào)道，全球4大會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所之一的德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所日前發(fā)布了受新冠肺炎疫情影響的能源行業(yè)的油氣、電力和公用事業(yè)以及可再生能源的年中展望，重點(diǎn)強(qiáng)調(diào)了可能影響今年剩余時(shí)間全球能源行業(yè)的3個(gè)主要趨勢。

在一個(gè)習(xí)慣于經(jīng)濟(jì)和大宗商品價(jià)格周期漲跌的行業(yè)里，2020年對油氣公司構(gòu)成了巨大挑戰(zhàn)。盡管現(xiàn)實(shí)情況正在迅速改變，但德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所的新報(bào)告為充滿挑戰(zhàn)的2021年打下了基礎(chǔ)，并為本世紀(jì)20年代初期至中期出現(xiàn)初步復(fù)蘇奠定了基礎(chǔ)。

主要趨勢：

1．油氣公司在石油市場大壓縮期間都在尋找下一個(gè)常態(tài)

2．全球天然氣市場需要適應(yīng)“更持久的更低價(jià)格”

3．油氣公司面對低油價(jià)和能源轉(zhuǎn)型平衡短期和長期優(yōu)先順序

電力和公用事業(yè)行業(yè)——需要關(guān)注增長機(jī)會(huì)

電力和公用事業(yè)行業(yè)以一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁姿態(tài)開始了新的十年，在引領(lǐng)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型的同時(shí)，發(fā)現(xiàn)新的增長機(jī)會(huì)。但就在幾個(gè)月后的疫情爆發(fā)，并以新的方式考驗(yàn)了一個(gè)能夠抵御危機(jī)的部門的勇氣。

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所在今年年初確定的3個(gè)主要趨勢的前景似乎已發(fā)生顯著變化。

首先，由于可再生能源在電力需求中所占比例突然上升，一個(gè)原本在氣候目標(biāo)上提高了門檻的行業(yè)現(xiàn)在似乎準(zhǔn)備更快跨過這一門檻。其次，為了確保電網(wǎng)在移動(dòng)過程中的穩(wěn)定性，可再生能源豐富的負(fù)荷將很可能需要以一種需求響應(yīng)(DR)的形式從分散式能源資源(DER)中獲得更大的靈活性。第三，由新冠肺炎疫情大流行導(dǎo)致的破壞強(qiáng)化了該行業(yè)專注3個(gè)增長領(lǐng)域的理由：數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)型、新服務(wù)和并購機(jī)會(huì)。

簡而言之，疫情可能催化了由油氣行業(yè)主導(dǎo)的清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型，同時(shí)為有關(guān)分散式能源資源和增長機(jī)會(huì)的戰(zhàn)略決策提供了緊迫性。

可再生能源——短期干擾，長期前景樂觀

2020年伊始，可再生能源行業(yè)正準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)入一個(gè)新的增長階段，這個(gè)增長主要是由不斷增長的客戶需求、成本競爭力、創(chuàng)新和合作驅(qū)動(dòng)的。但在短短幾個(gè)月內(nèi)，疫情大流行就在整個(gè)可再生能源行業(yè)造成了重大破壞。

在跟蹤行業(yè)對這種不確定性的反應(yīng)時(shí)，有3個(gè)主要趨勢值得關(guān)注：市場轉(zhuǎn)型、電網(wǎng)彈性以及創(chuàng)新和協(xié)作。盡管短期內(nèi)存在明顯的不利因素，但可再生能源行業(yè)的長期前景仍然樂觀，因?yàn)榭稍偕茉葱袠I(yè)建立在過去幾年實(shí)現(xiàn)的大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模之上。

德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所能源資源及工業(yè)主管Bart Cornelissen評論道：“在這個(gè)前所未有的時(shí)代里，油氣公司高管需要對籠罩2020年前景的許多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性保持警惕，同時(shí)準(zhǔn)備好迎接在不斷變化的市場環(huán)境中盈利增長的新機(jī)遇?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 TABNI.com

原文如下：

Three key trends for energy sector in 2020: Deloitte

Professional services firm Deloitte has released its mid-year outlooks for the Covid-hit energy industry sectors of oil and gas, power and utilities, and renewable energy, highlighting three key trends that could shape the rest of 2020.

In an industry used to the highs and lows of economic and commodity price cycles, 2020 poses great challenges to oil and gas companies. While the facts on the ground are changing rapidly, the new Deloitte report sets the ground for a challenging 2021 and a nascent recovery in the early-to-mid 2020s.

Key trends:

1. Companies are looking for the next normal in the oil market during the Great Compression

2. Need for adapting to “l(fā)ower for longer” in the global natural gas markets

3. Companies balancing short- and long-term priorities in the face of low oil prices and the energy transition

Power and utilities – the need to focus on growth opportunities

The power and utilities industry started the new decade in a strong position, identifying new opportunities for growth while leading the economy-wide clean energy transition. But just months later, the Covid-19 pandemic struck and tested the mettle of a crisis-resilient sector in new ways.

The outlook for three trends identified by Deloitte at the beginning of 2020 seems to have markedly changed. First, an industry that was raising the bar on climate goals now appears poised to vault that bar sooner thanks to a raised floor, as renewables abruptly acquired a higher share of electricity demand. Second, ensuring grid stability amid shifting, renewables-rich loads will likely require more demand-side flexibility from distributed energy resources (DER) in the form of demand response (DR). Third, pandemic-related disruptions have strengthened the case for the industry to focus on three growth areas: digital transformation, new services, and M&A opportunities.

In short, Covid-19 may have catalyzed the industry-led clean energy transition while lending urgency to strategic decisions about distributed energy resources and growth opportunities.

Renewable energy – short-term disruption with positive long-term outlook

As 2020 began, the renewable energy industry was just preparing to enter a new phase of growth driven largely by increasing customer demand, cost competitiveness, innovation, and collaboration. But within a few months, the Covid-19 pandemic caused major disruption across the sector.

While tracking the industry’s response to this uncertainty, there are three key trends to watch: market transformation, grid resiliency, and innovation and collaboration. Despite significant short-term headwinds, the long-term outlook for the renewable energy industry remains positive as it builds on the massive economies of scale achieved over the past few years.

Bart Cornelissen, Monitor Deloitte, Energy, Resources & Industrials Leader, Managing Partner, commented: “Amid these unprecedented times, company executives need to remain vigilant to the many risks and uncertainties clouding the outlook for 2020 while standing ready to embrace new opportunities for profitable growth in an evolving market landscape.