臨時(shí)性供應(yīng)沖擊使原油價(jià)格從高位回落

據(jù)雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)網(wǎng)站10月9日消息：周五紐約早盤原油價(jià)格從隔夜高點(diǎn)下滑，但本周仍將上漲近10%，這要?dú)w功于墨西哥灣和挪威的生產(chǎn)中斷，以及歐佩克及其盟友將在年底擱置增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃。

截至美國東部時(shí)間上午9:25(格林威治時(shí)間13:25)，美國原油期貨下跌0.3%，至每桶41.07美元，而國際市場布倫特原油下跌0.3%，至每桶43.20美元。兩者都在一夜之間創(chuàng)下了兩周多以來的最高水平。

與此同時(shí)，美國汽油RBOB期貨下跌1.8%，至每桶1.2094美元。

颶風(fēng)“德爾塔”目前正在接近路易斯安那州海岸，作為預(yù)防措施，墨西哥灣90％以上的產(chǎn)量(每天近200萬桶)已經(jīng)停產(chǎn)。

此外，挪威石油工人的罷工將持續(xù)到第二周，可能導(dǎo)致該國產(chǎn)量減少四分之一。

Rystad Energy石油市場主管Bjornar Tonhaugen稱，“油價(jià)已連續(xù)一周大幅上漲。然而，本周的收益并不是由長期存在的因素造成的，它們只能在短期內(nèi)持續(xù)。抑制美國產(chǎn)量的颶風(fēng)將會(huì)消退，產(chǎn)量將會(huì)再次上升，挪威的罷工也是如此。”

由于需求形勢不斷惡化，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油40美元/桶以上的價(jià)格水平“像玻璃一樣脆弱”。而獲得根本支持的最大希望在于歐佩克及其盟友進(jìn)一步實(shí)行產(chǎn)量約束。

因全球需求疲軟，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯都在考慮推遲原定于明年初的增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃。

俄羅斯并未嚴(yán)格遵守8月達(dá)成的歐佩克+協(xié)議規(guī)定的生產(chǎn)配額，這種情況可能會(huì)使任何新的協(xié)議復(fù)雜化，從而擴(kuò)大了當(dāng)前的產(chǎn)量限制。

馮娟 摘譯自 雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)

原文如下：

Crude Oil Retreats from Highs as Supply Shocks Seen Temporary

Crude oil prices slipped from overnight highs in early trade in New York on Friday but remained on course for gains of nearly 10% this week, thanks to production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and Norway – and to hopes that OPEC and its allies will shelve their plans to raise output at the end of the year.

By 9:25 AM ET (1325 GMT), U.S. crude futures were down 0.3% at $41.07 a barrel, while the international marker Brent was down 0.3% at $43.20 a barrel. Both had hit their highest levels in over two weeks overnight.

U.S. Gasoline RBOB futures, meanwhile, were down 1.8% at $1.2094 a barrel.

Hurricane Delta is currently approaching the Louisiana coast, having already caused over 90% of production in the Gulf of Mexico – nearly 2 million barrels a day – to shut down as a precaution.

In addition, a strike by Norwegian oil workers is set to extend into a second week, threatening to cut the country’s output by a quarter.

“Oil has enjoyed a week of impressive gains,” Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaugen said in e-mailed comments. “Yet this week’s gains are not caused by factors that are here to stay and they are only sustainable for a short period of time. Hurricanes that curb production in the U.S. will subside and output will rise again, and the same applies with strikes in Norway.”

Tonhaugen said that price levels in WTI above $40 a barrel are “as fragile as glass nowadays” due to the worsening demand picture: spreading coronavirus infections in Europe, in particular, are translating into lower levels of driving activity, while London Mayor Sadiq Khan warned that a fresh lockdown in the U.K. capital is “inevitable”.

The best hope for fundamental support arguably lies in further output discipline from OPEC and its allies. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the week that both Saudi Arabia and Russia, the biggest of its non-OPEC partners, were looking at postponing an increase in output that is scheduled for the start of next year, owing to weak global demand.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told local media on Friday that “we need to keep our finger on the pulse, we need to cooperate…to create normal market conditions.”

However, a report by S&P Global Platts earlier Friday showed that Russia had not kept strictly to its production quota under the current OPEC+ deal in August, a development that may complicate any fresh deal to extend the current output restraint.